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It’s time for those offseason takes to turn to fire or ash as it’s finally week 1! I’ll be putting my reputation on the line every week as I choose an entire fantasy team of lower-ranked players to score over a certain threshold of points, players that I trust. I’ll then choose another fantasy team of highly ranked players to score under a certain threshold of points, players that will bust. You’ll find the tally of my hits and misses throughout the season on each weekly article to make sure I’m holding myself accountable, and so all of you can call me dirty names on Twitter. Let’s go dominate week 1.
Fantasy Trust Circle: Week 1
I must choose a quarterback outside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 1 rankings to score over 22 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
QB: Jameis Winston (Week 1 Forecast: 295 Passing Yards, 10 Rushing Yards, 3 Touchdowns)
Winston was (very) quietly the #1 QB in points per dropback in his abbreviated 2021. Against a soft Atlanta defense with an upgraded wide receiver corps he’s a nice streaming option. The only concern would be if the Falcons can’t keep up in the first half and he only throws the ball 20 times.
I must choose two running backs outside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 1 rankings to score over 16 fantasy points in a PPR format.
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Week 1 Forecast: 80 Rushing Yards, 6 Receptions, 60 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
Edwards-Helaire has had a tumultuous start to his NFL career, but everything seems to be lining up for him to be a usable fantasy asset. He doesn’t have the explosiveness to return his real-life draft capital, but he can be efficient given this beefed-up offensive line. According to PFF, the Chiefs have the third-best run blocking advantage in week 1.
RB: Kareem Hunt (Week 1 Forecast: 35 Rushing Yards, 6 Receptions, 65 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
Hunt has been undervalued all offseason as he averaged 17.4 points per game before injuries derailed his season. The Browns will be in trailing game scripts more this season and Jacoby Brissett loves to pass the ball to his running backs.
I must choose two wide receivers outside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 1 rankings to score over 18 fantasy points in a PPR format.
WR: Brandon Aiyuk (Week 1 Forecast: 5 Receptions, 95 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
It’s a great matchup for Aiyuk as the running game will open up the play-action passes down the field for Trey Lance. Let’s just hope Lance has more than 20 pass attempts.
WR: Chris Olave (Week 1 Forecast: 5 Receptions, 110 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
We’ve already talked about Winston having a great game against this cushy Atlanta defense, and Olave will be the one to reap the sweet benefits. Michael Thomas will be a low ADOT, average-volume PPR guy until he get’s his feet under him (if he ever does), and Landry will be a distant third option for the Saints.
I must choose one tight end outside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 1 rankings to score over 10 fantasy points in a PPR format.
TE: Gerald Everett (Week 1 Forecast: 4 Receptions, 65 Yards, 1 Touchdown)
The Chargers are going to have to keep throwing the ball to stay ahead of the Raiders and Herbert quietly targeted a tight end on over 19 percent of his throws. An uber-athletic Everett is a much better option than the crusty 2021-version of Jared Cook.
Fantasy Busts: Week 1
I must choose a quarterback inside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 1 rankings to score under 20 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
QB: Dak Prescott (Week 1 Forecast: 320 Passing Yards, 1 Touchdown, 10 Rushing Yards, 2 Interceptions)
Losing Tyron Smith is one of the most important and least talked about fantasy implications for this year. The splits with him on/off the field don’t bode well for Dak and the offense, and the Buccaneers will take advantage of that.
I must choose two running backs inside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 1 rankings to score under 14 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
RB: Cam Akers (Week 1 Forecast: 50 Rushing Yards, 3 Receptions, 15 Receiving Yards)
The Bills’ defensive line has definitely the advantage against the Rams’ offensive line, but that’s the least of the concerns. This game has an over/under of 52.5 points and star cornerback Tre’davious White will be out for the Bills so the passes will be flying (if Stafford’s elbow can hold up), and Henderson profiles as more of the passing downs back. Akers also may not have his explosiveness back yet.
RB: Josh Jacobs (Week 1 Forecast: 40 Rushing Yards, 1 Reception, 5 Receiving Yards)
Josh McDaniels chose to keep 6 running backs on the roster because he likes to put them in specialized buckets. Josh Jacobs profiles as an early-down grinder that shares those snaps with Zamir White. Ameer Abdullah should be the passing downs back with a chance for Brandon Bolden to figure into that mess as well. Abdullah could be the highest scoring in this bunch Sunday when they’re down most of the game.
I must choose two wide receivers inside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 1 rankings to score under 14 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
WR: Deebo Samuel (Week 1 Forecast: 4 Receptions, 55 Receiving Yards, 20 Rushing Yards)
The 49ers are going to take it slow with Trey Lance in the early part of the year by running the ball and working the pass-action game. That doesn’t bode well for Deebo Samuel who should see much less work in the run game this year.
WR: Jaylen Waddle (Week 1 Forecast: 5 Receptions, 60 Receiving Yards)
Waddle has been hampered by a lower-body injury and doesn’t appear to be 100 percent for this week 1 matchup. New England will want to slow this game down by running the ball and playing stifling defense. In week 1 of 2021 Tagovailoa only threw 1 touchdown and 202 yards. I expect numbers like those and Tyreek to take a bigger target share than Waddle.
I must choose one tight end inside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 1 rankings to score under 8 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
TE: Pat Freiermuth (Week 1 Forecast: 3 Receptions, 25 Yards)
Did you know that Mitchell Trubisky has the second highest target share to running backs among active QBs? I expect Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson to get inaccurately fed in this game and the Bengals to get a ton of pressure on Trubisky. Also, in 2019 when Trubisky played all 16 games the tight end with the most receiving yards had 96. Seriously?
RANKINGS | WEEK 1 | DYNASTY |
