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Studs, Duds, & Values In 2022 Fantasy Football
In part six of this eight part series, we’ll walk through the NFC North to identify a stud, a dud (bust), and a value on each team in regards to 2022 fantasy football. It’s important to remember that the “duds” are in reference to that particular player’s current ADP.
Seattle Seahawks
Stud: DK Metcalf
D.K. Metcalf has been a stud since came out the womb. Unfortunately, the loss of Russell Wilson will bring him and the rest of the offense down considering Seattle’s only plan to replace their franchise quarterback is an ugly combination of Geno Smith and Drew Lock. The only good news is, bad quarterbacks tend to lock-in on their WR1. So, while the efficiency will be way down, the increase in target share should at least help make up for it. But really, we’re all just waiting for 2023.
Dud: Rashaad Penny
I feel like I’m one of the only analysts out here beating the drum to avoid drafting Rashaad Penny. That’s after I was one of a handful beating that same drum advocating picking him up off waivers during the season last year weeks before his league-winning five-game stretch.But the past is the past and we can’t expect that same performance considering all of the changes in Seattle since then. Russell Wilson is gone—shipped off to Denver. That leaves Penny in the worst offense in the league with the worst quarterback situation in the league. This is going to be an offense that plays at a slow pace, is inefficient, struggles to keep drives alive, won’t see many red zone trips, and will limit the fantasy production of all of its players. It’s not like he’ll make up for it as a pass-catcher like we saw with D’Andre Swift last year. Even in a functional offense with Russell Wilson at quarterback last year, he averaged just one reception per game over his hot five-game stretch. Over his career, he’s averaged 0.62 receptions per game.
Let’s not forget, the Seahawks just used a second-round pick on a running back. And sure, Penny will begin the season atop the depth chart, but it’s only a matter of time before Kenneth Walker gets an opportunity to take on a bigger role in the backfield. So now we have a running back who doesn’t catch passes, in a bad offense, and (at best) splitting the early-downs work. This is one of my 2022 takes that I’m most passionate about.
Value: Tyler Lockett
Tyler Lockett seems to find a way to produce every year. He’ll still be a splash play king even without Russell Wilson. However, they’re going to be fewer and farther between. He’s going super late in all formats. I’d only draft him in best ball, though.
San Francisco 49ers
Stud: Trey Lance
Trey Lance is the ultimate league-winning quarterback of 2022. There’s really no argument against him. If you’re worried about his passing efficiency or his inexperience, just look at Jalen Hurts from last year. Hurts finished as the QB6 despite throwing for just 3,100 yards and 16 touchdowns while completing 61.3-percent of his passes. But because of his rushing production, he was the QB6 in fantasy points per game. Trey Lance is going to bring a similar game with his legs. And he has a bigger arm than Hurts and is surrounded by much better weapons than Hurts was working with last year. The rushing gives him a high floor and if he hits as a passer, the ceiling is the overall QB1.
Dud: Deebo Samuel
Deebo Samuel is simply a case of being slightly overdrafted and there’s really not a lot of options to choose from this team as the “dud.” He’s certainly not going to be seeing the 59 carries that he saw in 2021. That was reportedly part of the issue when he requested a trade back in the spring. As much as I love Lance at quarterback, there is still some uncertainty considering he’s started just three games going back to his sophomore year in college. That means efficiency and pass volume are likely down in this offense. And with Lance’s athleticism, he’ll be taking some of those opportunities himself. That’s going to be especially problematic in the red zone considering Samuel scored a lot of his points on touchdowns—14 total and eight rushing. I’m not saying Deebo won’t be good, but some are drafting him like he’s going to be great.
Value: Brandon Aiyuk
He’s out of the dog house and we forget how good BrandonAiyuk is after the catch—Deebo’s not the only YAC monster in San Francisco. But what Deebo doesn’t do so well is get down the field. That’s where Aiyuk is going to shine with new quarterback Trey Lance who has a cannon arm.
Los Angeles Rams
Stud: Cam Akers
Just six months removed from one of the most traumatic injuries a running back can sustain, the Rams completely turned their backfield over to Cam Akers in the most important games of their season. It was a miracle he was even out there. Yet, he took 75-percent of the carries in the postseason while averaging 19 touches per game. Sure, he was not efficient with those touches, but let’s remember they played against the league’s third, seventh, and fifth-ranked rush defenses in the playoffs. This is a guy who averaged over 120 scrimmage yards per game over his last seven games (including postseason) in 2020. So we know he’s good. Now he’s going to be the bellcow in one of the league’s best offenses. I’m all in.
Dud: Cooper Kupp
Am I serious? Not really. But kinda. Many are drafting Kupp as the WR1 after his incredible 2021 campaign. However, I expect Justin Jefferson to take that crown in 2022 while Kupp experiences a bit of regression on top of losing a few targets and red zone looks to free agent signee Allen Robinson. With that said, he’s my WR2.
Value: Allen Robinson
Allen Robinson has gone from one of the worst offenses in the league to one of the best. He’s stepping into a role that has consistently delivered a target share above 20-percent over the last few seasons whether it was Robert Woods or Odell Beckham. We know Robinson can be that guy. Robinson was able to produce WR1 numbers even with putrid quarterback play in 2019 and 2020 with the Bears. Now he’s playing with the best quarterback of his life.
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
Arizona Cardinals
Stud: Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray has the ultimate combination of arm and legs to make him one of the top quarterbacks in fantasy football. The team added his former college receiver Marquise Brown and he’ll have a full season to work with tight end Zach Ertz. When DeAndre Hopkins returns from his six game suspension, Murray will be looking at the best group of weapons he’s had to work with since entering the NFL.
Dud: James Conner
Aside from his crazy 7.5-percent, unsustainable touchdown rate, Conner’s 2021 numbers were quite pedestrian. He took 202 carries (No.17) for 752 yards (No.24) while hauling in 37 receptions (No.27) for 375 yards (No.11). He wasn’t even overly efficient, either. His true yards per carry (3.6) ranked 62nd while his yards per touch, evaded tackles per touch, and breakaway run rate all ranked outside the top-24 (PlayerProfiler.com). I think the people drafting him at ADP are expecting that either Conner is going to continue to score an absurd amount of touchdowns or that he’s going to absorb the full Chase Edmonds role on top of his own. Spoiler alert—neither is going to happen. Conner should be a “dead zone” running back, yet he’s going ahead of other backs like Travis Etienne and Breece Hall. You also have to pass on some stud wide receivers to take him.
Value: Zach Ertz
Zach Ertz only played half a season with the Cardinals last year, yet he still scored as a TE1 seven times. His full 17-game pace would’ve given him over 80 receptions and close to 900 receiving yards. And without DeAndre Hopkins for the first six weeks, Ertz is going to be the alpha dog in the passing game.
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