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Studs, Duds, & Values In 2022 Fantasy Football
In part seven of this eight part series, we’ll walk through the NFC South to identify a stud, a dud (bust), and a value on each team in regards to 2022 fantasy football. It’s important to remember that the “duds” are in reference to that particular player’s current ADP.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stud: Tom Brady
Tom Brady just led the league in pass attempts, completions, yards, and touchdowns. He was also No.1 in deep passes and red zone attempts. He finished as the QB3 and is literally the greatest quarterback of all time. Do I really need to say more?
Dud: Mike Evans
Mike Evans needs to continue to score touchdowns at an incredibly high rate to return value at ADP. His target rate, yards per reception, air yards share, and yards per route were all average at best in 2021. We keep drafting him counting on the touchdown rate. Eventually that’s going to drop off and we’re going to be left holding a middling wide receiver barely getting by on volume. With that said, we’re still ranking him as a WR1. We’re not complete idiots.
Value: Rachaad White
Rachaad White continues to be one of my favorite picks once we get into the double-digit rounds. He is one of the best lottery tickers you can find in any draft. At 214-pounds, White is an explosive athlete with sub-4.5 speed. On top of that, his receiving profile is exceptional. Not only did he lead Arizona State in rushing last year, but White also had the second-highest share of receiving yards on the team. He had an unbelievable 20.9-percent reception share while averaging 11.9 yards per reception. Now he’s in one of the best offenses in the league with a quarterback who utilizes his running backs in the passing-game as much as anyone. White’s lurking behind a 27-year old at the most injury-prone position in the game. He could be one Leonard Fournette cheeseburger away from being a league-winner.
Atlanta Falcons
Stud: Kyle Pitts
Kyle Pitts had a historically good rookie season. He’s going to be one of the elite tight ends in fantasy for a long time. Pitts won’t face much target competition in 2022, with just rookie wide receiver Drake London as the only other respectable option in the passing game.
Dud: Cordarrelle Patterson
There’s no chance that Cordarrelle Patterson repeats his incredible age-30 breakout season. He’ll continue to be productive in the passing game but it’s hard to see a path to double-digit touchdowns again.
Value: Drake London
Drake London was on pace to have one of the most dominant receiving seasons we’ve seen in 2021 before fracturing his ankle. Yet, he still finished with over 1,000 yards receiving and averaged 11 receptions per game in eight contests. Even in his early days at USC, he was productive while playing alongside Michael Pittman and Amon-Ra St. Brown. He’s the clear WR1 in Atlanta with tight end Kyle Pitts as his only real threat for target competition. London is has all of the tools of a prototypical X-receiver and a YAC monster. Of all the players going around his ADP, London has by-far the most upside.
Carolina Panthers
Stud: Christian McCaffrey
You don’t need me to tell you that Christian McCaffrey is a stud. He’s done that by averaging 25.4 fantasy points per game over his last 42 games (four seasons; 2018-2021). The only question is, can he stay healthy?
Dud: Robbie Anderson
We all saw what Robbie Anderson said about Baker Mayfield on social media this offseason. There’s no way Baker is looking his way.
Value: DJ Moore
D.J. Moore has quietly been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL over the last three seasons. He has seen a target share over 24-percent in each of those three seasons and he’s consistently near the top of the league in air yards and yards after the catch. He now gets to play with the best quarterback of his career.
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
New Orleans Saints
Stud: Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara seems to have dodged a suspension. At least for now. That puts him right back into the second round conversation. We already know what he is. He’s going to be utilized heavily in the passing game where he has averaged 75 receptions per season. We could also see a continuation of his 2021 usage as a ball carrier which propelled him to a career-high 240 rush attempts. He had never even cracked the 200 mark in his previous four seasons. He had six games with at least 20 carries, topping off at 30 attempts in the season finale. Considering the team did nothing to improve the depth behind him, it’s a good bet that he will continue to be the focal point in both phases.
Dud: Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas has played in just seven games since injuring his ankle in Week 1 of 2020. That includes missing the entirety of the 2021 campaign. He’s already battling a hamstring injury in training camp. Gone are the days where he’s the only legitimate wide receiver option in the passing game. The team brought in Jarvis Landry in free agency and drafted Chris Olave in the first round. At 29 years old, he’s far from the elite level he was at a few years ago. If you draft him thinking you’re going to get WR1 production or anything close to it, you’re going to be very disappointed.
Value: Chris Olave
I don’t love Olave for redraft as much as I did a month ago. At that point, there was still some uncertainty around Michael Thomas and there was a higher probability that we’d see an Alvin Kamara suspension. While I’m not as bullish on him now, I still like him. He might be the best wide receiver on his team. His skill set matches what Jameis Winston likes to do (push the ball down the field) and he may be the most polished of all the rookie wide receivers.
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