Yahoo! vs ESPN ADP: Tight Ends
We’re well into draft season now and with one full weekend to go before the start of the season (at last!), the more casual drafters are starting to get their player lists together and work out who they want to draft. The even more casual drafters are going to rock up to the draft and just draft straight off the standard draft rankings in whichever platform they’re using.
With that in mind, I’ve looked into Yahoo and ESPN to pick out some of the key differences in ADP for tight ends on those sites. I’ve also compared them to the industry experts and my own rankings for this year.
Why do this? Well, drafting is all about value and if you can identify the values in your draft then you’re going to have a leg-up on your league-mates. And if you have multiple leagues then, like me, you may be using both platforms this year. Knowing the nuances of the two different systems can really help when it comes to draft day and I for one am going to use this to influence my draft.
I examined running backs and wide receivers in parts one and two of this series so if you missed them, go back and give them a read.
In part three of this series, we’re in to the tight ends.
Evan Engram
- Yahoo TE10
- ESPN TE6
- Yardsper Current Ranking TE7
- FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) TE6
- My Current Ranking TE4
I love Evan Engram and posed a left-field Tight End strategy in targeting Engram in an earlier article. Whenever he’s on the field, he is incredible and gives you a player who can push for elite Tight End production but at a much cheaper price.
The problem with Engram is his injury history, which is definitely cause for concern. Like I outlined for Conner in my running backs article, if he stays fit then he’s going to outperform his ADP, if he gets injured then he’s going to underperform. So it comes down to your appetite for risk.
That said, on Yahoo, that risk is baked in to his cost. At TE10, you’re taking him after Tyler Higbee, Jared Cook and Rob Gronkowski. Are you telling me that the risk/reward on Engram’s injury is worse than the risk/reward on Higbee’s four-game sample size, Gronk’s years out of the league or Cook’s reliance on touchdowns? If I can get him at TE10, I’m snapping up Engram without hesitation.
Hunter Henry
- Yahoo TE7
- ESPN TE10
- Yardsper Current Ranking TE8
- FantasyPros ECR TE7
- My Current Ranking TE10
This one is the opposite to Engram above in terms of where the platforms have them. Like Engram, Henry has also had his share of injuries but when he’s on the field he’s been great.
He finished as TE8 on a per-game basis last year and gets a new quarterback this year. We don’t know whether that’s going to end up being a good or bad thing but at TE7 in Yahoo, you might be drafting him at his ceiling.
On the other hand at TE10 in ESPN, as with Engram in Yahoo, you’re taking him after the risky picks of Higbee, Cook and Gronkowski. I’d be happy taking Henry as the TE10 in that scenario, no problems.
TJ Hockenson
- Yahoo TE20
- ESPN TE13
- Yardsper Current Ranking TE9
- FantasyPros ECR TE15
- My Current Ranking TE12
Opportunity continues to be a major factor in Tight End production and TJ Hockensen has plenty of it. He got a 14-percent target share last year and showed some flashes of what he can do, not least of which in week 1 when he burned the Cardinals for 131 yards and a touchdown on his debut. He never really lived up to that for the rest of the season but it’s rare for Tight Ends to hit straight out of the gate. And may I remind you that he was a high first round pick. The Lions rate him highly and he will get plenty of opportunity to hit big this year.
There isn’t a lot separating the Tight Ends down the list and it can very much be a case of taking the guy you like but look at the difference between Yahoo and ESPN ADP. A high end TE2/low end TE1 is the popular position here but Yahoo has him at TE20. Unless you’re in a deep league, or drafting with a Lions fan, you can basically get him for free.
OJ Howard
- Yahoo TE17
- ESPN TE26
- Yardsper Current Ranking TE28
- FantasyPros ECR TE26
- My Current Ranking TE26
Are we going to fall for this again? Yes, I’ll admit to being one of the poor saps who believed the hype last year and took him in a number of drafts. I’m not proud of it but you won’t fool me twice. There’s little to suggest that we should believe in him all of a sudden.
He finished as TE28 last year and now has Rob Gronkowski to contend with at the position, with a quarterback who knows and trusts the WWE wrestling champ.
Now, the difference in positions at Tight Ends in this range is not vast but at TE17, you’re expecting a major bump if you’re taking him in Yahoo leagues. Not for me thanks.
Kyle Rudolph
- Yahoo TE15
- ESPN TE22
- Yardsper Current Ranking TE35
- FantasyPros ECR TE28
- My Current Ranking TE40
This one blew my mind. Kyle Rudolph finished as TE16 last year but on a per-game basis was TE24. He’s on a low volume passing team with competition from a 2nd year Tight End in Irv Smith Jr (who had the best catch-percentage from a rookie Tight End with double-digit target share since 2010). Rudolph is 30 years old and is becoming the second Tight End option in his team.
Yet for some reason, he’s going at TE15 in Yahoo leagues. Stay clear at that price folks.
Jonnu Smith
- Yahoo TE21
- ESPN TE20
- Yardsper Current Ranking TE14
- FantasyPros ECR TE16
- My Current Ranking TE13
Blake Jarwin
- Yahoo TE23
- ESPN TE21
- Yardsper Current Ranking TE21
- FantasyPros ECR TE18
- My Current Ranking TE8
Tight Ends can be a bit of a lottery and touchdowns make a big difference but I wanted to highlight a couple of late round ADP guys who could be being undervalued on both Yahoo and ESPN platforms right now.
Jonnu Smith has shown some flashes of brilliance in his first few years in the NFL and his ability after the catch is fantastic. Smith’s 7.8 Yards After Catch (YAC) per reception was better than George Kittle and second only to Noah Fant (on a sample of Tight Ends with over 30 catches). Now that Delanie Walker is out of the way, he’s the TE1 in a team devoid of top-level pass-catchers. Jonnu could garner a lot of volume and put himself in the TE1 conversation this year.
Similarly, Blake Jarwin also finds himself in a spot where the tight end ahead of him is no longer on the team and has left behind a whole bunch of targets, 83 to be precise. That’s plenty. Like Jonnu Smith, Jarwin is coming into his 4th year and has shown the ability to make plays already. Dallas are going to continue to be a high volume team and there’s lots of opportunity for him.
On both Yahoo and ESPN these two are going as low TE2s. I’m much higher on both of them and would rather take the potential upside of these two young Tight Ends who are stepping in to volume, over the likes of Jimmy Graham and Kyle Rudolph.
Will Dissly
- Yahoo TE19
- ESPN TE36
- Yardsper Current Ranking TE32
- FantasyPros ECR TE29
- My Current Ranking TE19
As with the other positional reviews, I’ll also highlight a player with a massive discrepancy between the two platforms.
If you take out the game where he left injured, Will Dissly’s points per game last year was joint third. It was a relatively small sample size but that isn’t stopping the Higbee truthers from using his sample size to justify a high ranking. He’s got competition for tight end targets with Greg Olsen and Jacob Hollister, who will also be looking for those end zone looks from Russell Wilson. But based on what Dissly showed us before he got injured last year, he may be worth grabbing in deeper leagues where you can basically get him for free, particularly in ESPN.
Good luck in your drafts, look out for those values and do what you can to exploit these price differentials across the two platforms. If you missed them, read the running backs and wide receiver reviews and stay tuned for quarterbacks coming soon.
