Tom Brady To Tampa Bay: Tribute & Fantasy Impact
Tribute to a Legend
Today is a historic day in NFL history. On rare occasions a monumental moment comes along that demands our attention. A moment that causes the collective sports world to pause and contemplate where we’ve been, and where we might be headed. Today, Tom Brady is no longer a New England Patriot. Two months ago, after a loss to the Titans in the Wild Card Round of the AFC playoffs, Brady left the field in a Patriots uniform for the last time. At the time, it was difficult to consider Brady leaving as a possible reality. How could we?
For nearly two decades, Tom Brady was the face of New England Patriots. During that time his team dominated the competition in a way we’ve never seen before. Three league MVPs, six Super Bowl victories (add another three appearances), and an NFL-record four Super Bowl MVPs. For two decades the New England Patriots have epitomized greatness. Together, Brady and Bill Belichick built something unprecedented; something remarkable. They were so irrefutably dominant that they somehow became super villains of the NFL. When a team is that good – that unstoppable – it causes the masses to join together and actively root for their demise. But as much as we wanted it, that demise never came. The Patriots won double-digit games seemingly every year. By now, their trophy case is overflowing with AFC East titles they’ve earned. Consistently, New England ensured that the AFC playoffs would run through Foxborough, and far more often than not, their opponents left Gillette Stadium on a cold January night, utterly defeated. In this story, the villains would win. Again. And again. And again.
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In 2000, the New England Patriots took a chance on a two-year starter out of Michigan in the sixth round of the draft. Less than two years later, Tom Brady was a Super Bowl MVP. In 2003, he won it again. By the time he completed his fourth year as a starter, he was a three-time Super Bowl champion. He has more wins than any other quarterback in NFL history. Tom Brady isn’t just good. He’s otherworldly. What the New England Patriots were able to do with Brady at the helm is unfathomable. But here we are.
For two decades, Tom Brady led this team to unparalleled heights. Not just in football, but across the sports’ landscape. Today Tom Brady leaves the New England Patriots behind. But in reality, he’s leaving so much more than that. Tom Brady is closing the door on what is the greatest dynasty in NFL history. I urge you to pause and take a look back through Brady’s career. To shed your Patriots’ hatred for just a moment. We have been given the opportunity to witness the greatest career this sport has ever seen. Tom Brady gave us that. The least we can do is give him the appreciation that he has earned. Tom Brady. The greatest to ever play the game. Forever a Patriot.
Tom Brady To Tampa Bay: Fantasy Implications
Tom Brady
On Monday, Tom Brady announced that he would not be returning to New England. Today he is a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. Brady may be the greatest to play the game, but that hasn’t always generated incredible fantasy production. Last year, Brady struggled, particularly down the stretch, to produce for fantasy owners. That said, his move to Tampa should be considered a positive for his value. The Buccaneers have a fantastic receiving group and an admirable offensive line. Statistically, Brady should be able to put up some solid numbers. It’s important to note, however, that in recent years he has been less likely to fill up the stat-sheet. He also provides nothing in the way of rushing production. In dynasty, I would look to sell if the hype builds. His window as a long-term asset is closing quickly. Last year, Brady ranked 23rd in average yards per pass attempt. By comparison, Jameis Winston was second in this category. Brady simply isn’t the gunslinger he once was. In 2020, Brady could flirt with top ten fantasy value but shouldn’t be considered a top six option.
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans
Let’s look at Tampa’s two stud wide-outs together. Both finished as top-12 wide recievers in PPR formats this past season. While not unheard of, a pair of WR1 teammates is rare. It’s unrealistic to think that it will happen again in 2020. This past year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were an incredibly pass heavy offense. They ranked fourth in total pass attempts and first in total passing yards. Unsurprisingly, the rush offense was neglected. The Bucs ranked 22nd in rushing attempts and 29th in rushing yards. Jameis Winston’s inability to protect the football certainly played a role; he turned the ball over 39 times in 2019. This created frequent negative game scripts for Bruce Arians and the offense.
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Here’s the bottom line. The pass heavy formula didn’t work for Tampa Bay. Arians was committed to bringing in a more cerebral quarterback that could protect the ball, keep games manageable, and give the Bucs opportunity to win. This offense is going to throw the ball less than it did in 2019. As previously stated, Brady’s tendency to throw the ball downfield is lower than the quarterback he is replacing. Every indicator is pointing to a lower passing volume offense in 2020. Expect both to take a marginal step back this year.
Even so, both should flirt with top-15 numbers, and one of the two should be positioned well to finish in the top eight. I’ll bet on Godwin as the better option. He should be more valuable given his propensity to be used in the slot. Brady has shown that he likes to target the slot receiver at a high frequency. In dynasty, you’re always looking for value, but I’m inclined to call these two holds. The Bucs are likely to have a new quarterback as soon as 2021.
OJ Howard
After an incredibly disappointing year, OJ Howard should be poised for a bounce back. While ineffective with his chances, Howard did still see the field on 69% of the snaps this past year. Breshad Perriman is leaving in free agency and Tampa Bay will need more receiving weapons than Godwin and Evans. Howard fits the bill. Brady has a tendency to target tight ends as well, and unlike Winston, Brady has no established connection with Cameron Brate. The talent is still there for the young tight end. A strong off-season will position him well to perform for fantasy owners once again. He’s worth the gamble as a top ten option in both dynasty and redraft.
Ronald Jones
On the surface, this seems great for RoJo. Peyton Barber is gone. Tom Brady is taking over. Right now, his stock is certainly rising. Brady loves to target the running back and Barber was a thorn in Jones’ side throughout the entirety of the 2019 season. That said, the Bucs are likely to add a running back through the draft; they may still make a push for Melvin Gordon in free agency or Todd Gurley via trade. Arians doesn’t believe in Jones as a lead back, and Jones won’t get another opportunity to try to change his mind. The Brady signing may provide one last sell high opportunity for dynasty owners. I suggest you take it. I project Jones to be a complimentary piece, at best, in 2020.
Resources: Pro Football Reference, PFF
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