The Background
The 2020 NFL league year started with a bang. A flurry of trades rocked the NFL, including the Texans moving on from DeAndre Hopkins, Ravens sending TE Hayden Hurst to Atlanta, and finishing off the first day with Stefon Diggs moving from the Vikings to the Bills.
During the 2019 season, there were rumblings of friction between Diggs and the Vikings. And–as often is the case–where there is smoke, there is fire. The Vikings sent Diggs and a 2020 seventh round pick to the Bills in exchange for 2020 first, fifth, and sixth round picks, and a 2021 4th round selection. Ultimately, this was an even trade. The Vikings get cap relief by moving on from the star WR, while also picking up desperately needed draft capital. The Bills finally nab a No.1 WR for their young QB Josh Allen. That leaves us with one question though: How are players on both teams affected from a fantasy football perspective?
Trade Alert!: The Fantasy Impact of the DeAndre Hopkins-David Johnson Deal
The Good
QB Josh Allen, Bills: Cheers of joy can be heard around the world now that the Buffalo Bills have finally acquired a true no.1 WR that they’ve been searching for forever. But, I guarantee no one is happier than QB Josh Allen. For the first time in his young playing career, Allen will have a bonafide WR1 to throw the ball to. No longer will he have to rely on the likes of Robert Foster and John Brown to be the main guy in Buffalo. Combine Allen’s production on the ground with the weaponry of this Bills’ passing attack, and Allen will be in the top-12 QB fantasy discussion for 2020.
RB Devin Singletary, Bills: Singletary showed true promise during his debut season. He will no longer be forced to share carries with free agent running back Frank Gore and now has Diggs to take the attention of defenses. This becomes a fantastic situation for Singletary to be in. I would start pitching offers to Singletary owners and see if you can steal him for cheap.
WR Adam Thielen, Vikings: Now that the dust settled, we can see it leaves Thielen as the lone man standing for the WR1 spot on the Minnesota depth chart. Expect Thielen’s target share to increase with Diggs’ departure. With Thielen playing mainly out of the slot, he shouldn’t have to worry too much about No.1 corners shadowing him. He will rise up rankings and be among the first 12 WRs off the board in 2020.
2020 Dynasty Rookie Rankings
RB Dalvin Cook, Vikings: With Diggs gone, expect the Vikings to build off of Cook’s fantastic 2019 season. With one less playmaker, Cook should see more touches in both the run and pass game. His stock grows ever higher.
TE Irv Smith Jr, Vikings: Irv Smith Jr. becomes the quietest winner of this trade. After Thielen and Rudolph, there is no one to catch passes from Kirk Cousins. The Vikings spent a second on Smith Jr. in the 2019 draft, and will undoubtedly look to get him involved. Turning 31 this season, Rudolph is on the books for roughly $9 million for the 2020 season. I can’t imagine Rudolph remains a Viking for long at that price, and he’s already said last year he is not willing to take a pay cut. If Smith is available in your league, I’d start asking for a price.
The Bad
QB Kirk Cousins, Vikings: The bad news is that the Vikings just shipped out one of the best WRs in the league. The good news is that Cousins still has Thielen in the slot and Dalvin Cook out of the backfield. With that said, Cousins will deservedly drop in redraft and dynasty rankings after losing out on a target as good as Diggs.
Bills WRs/TEs: Welp, not like many guys were highly coveted from the Bills 2019 passing attack. Nevertheless, all of them will drop in value now that the Bills have a true no.1 WR in Diggs. WR John “Smokey” Brown loses the most value here as he drops on the depth chart from WR1 to WR2. He should continue to get some targets and have an occasional big game thanks to Diggs drawing the defenses’ attention. WR Cole Beasley’s target share will be reduced, and I’d expect his role will be demoted to a safety valve out of the slot. TE Dawson Knox, who flashed at times last year, now becomes (at best) the fourth target in this offense.
The Ugly
Stefon Diggs: I went back and forth on this. My original reaction was that this is a win for Diggs. Finally freed to be a true no.1 WR on a team willing to drown him in targets. Diggs remains one of the most underrated WRs in the NFL. PFF (Pro Football Focus) credits Diggs with the highest contested catch rate in the league over the past three years at 61.1-percent (next closest is Saints WR Michael Thomas with 59.8-percent). Additionally, Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception model charts Diggs as the best route runner in the league.
See Where New Bills WR Stefon Diggs lands in our Dynasty Rankings!
Stefon Diggs' 2019 #ReceptionPerception success rate vs. coverage scores:
vs. man: 76.5%
vs. zone: 84.3%
vs. press: 79.1% (career best)He's now finished above the 93rd percentile against man coverage for three-straight years. He is the best route runner in the NFL.
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) February 28, 2020
Then it occurred to me that Diggs will go from playing in a dome with an accurate Kirk Cousins to a windy Buffalo, with an oft-inaccurate Josh Allen.
Elite Route Running
Meets
Elite Errant Passing
————————————————
Josh Allen:True Comp%: 33rd
Play Action Comp%: 24th
Deep Ball Comp%: 33rd
Clean/Pressured Comp%: 34th https://t.co/U6Zxh0HLNO
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) March 17, 2020
Plus, now Diggs will have to face Stephon Gilmore and the tandem of Xavien Howard/Byron Jones four times per season. Yikes!
Buffalo is not exactly a WR’s dream destination. But, at the end of the day, opportunity is king in fantasy football. Diggs moves on from a tough target-sharing offense to a team where he will be the go-to guy. According to FantasyPros.com, Diggs was WR12 on big boards last year. I expect he will remain in that territory again for 2020.
