The Fantasy Impact of the DeAndre Hopkins-David Johnson Trade
The Trade
The Houston Texans sent shockwaves across the NFL landscape Monday by trading away perennial all-star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for running back David Johnson. The original news came down that Bill O’Brien had a struck a deal that would make David Johnson a Houston Texan. A few minutes later, it was announced that DeAndre Hopkins was a part of the trade package. It seems like somebody may have buried the lead on that one. In addition to Hopkins, the Cardinals will receive a fourth-round pick in the 2020 draft, while sending their 2020 second-round selection and a 2021 fourth-rounder to the Texans. The Texans will take on the remaining contract for Johnson including $10.2 million and another $11.2 million the following season. What we all want to know though, is how does the trade impact David Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins in terms of fantasy value? Who else is impacted by this deal?
Fantasy Impact – Winners
Kyler Murray
This blockbuster trade drastically shifts the fantasy situation for both rosters. The biggest winner is Kyler Murray, and it’s not close. He will now be throwing to one of the most dynamic fantasy wide receivers of the past decade. With Hopkins, Christian Kirk, and Larry Fitzgerald in Kingsbury’s air raid offense, the sky is the limit. From a dynasty standpoint, Kyler was already a big riser this offseason after winning offensive rookie of the year. He may have just passed another QB in the rankings… but we’ll talk about him more in a minute.
Kenyan Drake, Chase Edmonds
Another big winner here is Kenyan Drake. Just a couple of hours after applying the transition tag to Drake, the Cardinals unload David Johnson and his salary to make room for Drake to return. It’s no secret that Arizona wanted to bring Drake back. The problem was that it would be difficult to do so with so much money tied to the running back room. That’s not a problem anymore. The transition tag allows the Cardinals to match any offer that Drake might receive, and unless he gets an unexpectedly high offer, Arizona will do just that. Expect Drake to rise up the rankings to a borderline RB1 in ADP over the next few weeks and that’s exactly where he should be valued. Chase Edmonds also gets a bump in dynasty now that he has a path to touches.
David Johnson
Essentially left for dead, nobody was expecting that the Cardinals would be able to unload Johnson’s contract. He clearly fell out of favor with the Arizona staff, and his obscure future was uncertain, at best. But out of nowhere Bill O’Brien stormed-in triumphantly, saving his fantasy value. Johnson will lead the Texans backfield in 2020. That’s certain based on what Houston gave up to acquire him. However, we should be careful not to propel Johnson too far upwards in the rankings. He looked a step slower during this past injury-riddled season and will be 29 before the 2020 season is complete. Proceed with caution. In dynasty, look to sell-high as his hype builds from this deal.
Houston’s Receiving Options
Will Fuller and Kenny Stills should expect more targets this season, but both are considered field stretchers more than possession receivers. Limit expectations for either to demand a target share anywhere near what Hopkins received. That said, both should see an uptick in opportunity barring a strong addition to the wide receiver group via free agency or the draft. From a dynasty perspective, I would see how much value they are gaining; this could likely be a sell high opportunity for them. Additionally, Keke Coutee may have the chance to return to fantasy relevance after a down sophomore year. And keep an eye on Darren Fells (who just signed a two-year contract) and Jordan Atkins. Both tight ends performed admirably with their chances in 2019. If the Texans don’t add a premiere talent, the tight end group could see more work.
Fantasy Impact – Losers
Deshaun Watson
Ouch. If Kyler is the biggest winner, Watson is easily the biggest loser. He goes from a wide receiver group with arguably the most talented receiver in the league to one that is headlined by an oft-injured field stretcher. David Johnson’s addition could end up benefiting the receiving game out of the backfield, but not tremendously. In fact, some might say they already had what they needed there in Duke Johnson. Watson’s stock is plummeting today, and it’s warranted. From a dynasty standpoint, Kyler just leapfrogged him in my rankings. Watson is still a good player and has the intangibles to remain a solid dynasty option, but this hurts. Bill O’Brien is going to have to do some damage control with his star QB after this head-scratcher.
DeAndre Hopkins
Honestly, this isn’t much of a downgrade for Hopkins. Even so, it’s a cop-out to say his value won’t change at all. Wide receivers moving to new offenses typically have an adjustment period. Hopkins will have the whole off-season to get up to speed, but he may not start off the season as a top-three fantasy asset at wide receiver. Kyler is also going into his sophomore season. He was great in his rookie year, but it’d be asking a lot to assume that he can play on Deshaun Watson’s level already. Finally, the wide receiver group, on paper, is better than the one he was playing with in Houston. He’ll continue to demand an incredible target share, but Kyler may spread the ball around a little bit more than Watson did in Houston. Hopkins should still be considered a top-10 fantasy option at the position.
How does this trade impact DeAndre Hopkins in our Fantasy Rankings?
Duke Johnson
This one is self-explanatory. The Texans just traded DeAndre Hopkins for a running back. The value of the existing backs on the roster just fell through the floor. Because of that, Duke Johnson may be a buy if you can get him at a bargain in a dynasty league. He will be the handcuff to DJ and the only other Texans running back worth owning.
Arizona’s Receiving Options
Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, Hakeem Butler, Andy Isabella, and KeeSean Johnson. This hurts all of these guys to varying degrees. Kirk will see a reduced target share, but with Hopkins demanding key coverage, he will have a chance to be a dynamic player on the outside. If he can stay healthy, look for his efficiency to soar in 2020. Fitzgerald will lose targets as well, but he is already tremendously devalued in fantasy circles due to his age and the youth movement in that offense. The biggest losers would be the group of second-year wideouts. They will likely have a hard time seeing the field in the near future for this high-powered offense. But, much like Fitz, the value for these players was already low. Pour one out for the Hakeem Butler and Andy Isabella truthers.
