A Case For: Rashaad Penny

Welcome to my first “A Case for” article! In this series of “off-season” articles, I will make a case for or against a particular player. These articles will analyze a team’s situation, scheme, coaches, and history–and the player’s health, history and opportunity. Consider this a deep dive on one particular player and why you should or shouldn’t target him.

Without further ado…

A Case for the Seattle Running Backs

To start a case for Rashaad Penny, we must first look at the history of the Seattle Seahawks under Pete Carroll. Below is a graph representing the Seahawks rushing since Carroll became head coach.

Let’s quickly run through this year by year.

2010: Throw this season out. Carroll’s first year as head coach, Marshawn Lynch didn’t join the team until Week 4.

2011-2014: Carroll began to “establish the run” (his favorite phrase). Lynch was arguably the most consistent RB in fantasy during these four years.

2015: Despite losing Lynch to injury (and then Thomas Rawls), Carroll remained committed to the run and ranked third in attempts. If you used “Seattle’s Starting RB” as an RB, it would have been RB3 on the year.

2016: Christine Michael (who is not good) was a top-15 RB through the first nine weeks of the season prior to injury. Seattle had no other RBs to turn to, as Rawls was also on IR.

2017: Every RB Seattle touched turned to dust (Eddie Lacy, Rawls, Michael, Chris Carson, J.D. McKissic, etc.). Russell Wilson was the team’s leading rusher. Still finished the year 21st in rushing.

2018: After two years of injuries, the Seahawks finally invested in their run game via the draft. Carroll wanted to get back to the “good ol’ days”–when their running game helped win a Super Bowl and made them a perennial Super Bowl contender. Carson didn’t start every game, so if you use “Seattle Starting RB” as a stat, it would have been RB 12 on the season (with 225.4 points).

So what should we take from this?

Any Seattle starting RB should immediately be considered a top-12 RB. Carroll traditionally has given his starter a bulk of the workload and not been an RBBC coach. Removing the two “fluke” years of 2017 and 2010, Carroll’s RBs are among the best to own in fantasy. YOU WANT A PIECE OF THIS BACKFIELD.

What about the O-Line?

“But Luke, hasn’t Seattle’s offensive line been terrible?”

“Well, dear reader, thank you for reading my article. And no, their offensive line is much better than you think.”

Last year, Seattle’s O-line ranked 12th in run blocking. It was their first year under a new offensive line coach with an almost entirely new set of linemen. This season will be the second year under Offensive Line Coach Mike Solari. They return four of their five starters from 2018. The one not returning is JR Sweezy—the worst run blocker of the group. They replaced Sweezy with Pro-Bowler Mike Iupati, who is best known for his run blocking ability. This is a significant upgrade. Seattle’s rushing game should be even better in 2019.

​A Case against Chris Carson

Carson is currently ranked ahead of Penny after his solid 2018. ADP has Carson currently at RB 26 and Penny at RB 30. I am here to make the case that Penny should be drafted WELL ahead of Carson.

Let’s first dig through Carson’s history. Carson suffered a major ACL injury his senior season in high school. His grades suffered and he lost his scholarships to Georgia and other big name schools. Instead, he went the JUCO route. Eventually he was recruited to Oklahoma State. Carson had an unspectacular junior season and was beat out and replaced his senior season by Justice Hill. Carson suffered a sprained ankle in 2015 and broken thumb in 2016. He was drafted with the 31st pick of the seventh round by the Seattle in 2017. Some argued he fell to the seventh round because of injury concerns. In his first season with the Seahawks, Carson suffered a season-ending broken ankle. He then missed two games in 2018, while battling a hip ailment for much of the season. Needless to say (but I will say it anyways), Carson is not a guy who has ever held up for a full season, at any level.

Finally, let’s not forget that the last time we saw Carson, he ran the ball 13 times for 20 yards against Dallas in a Wild Card playoff loss. His lack of rushing success was a large reason Seattle lost the playoff match. The next time Carroll spoke about his backfield, he said: “I don’t know who’s one and who’s two. It doesn’t matter to me. I thought both guys did a really good job this year. There’s plenty of room for both guys.” This is already an open competition heading into the preseason.

​A Case for Rashaad Penny

Penny was a less heralded high school recruit but was still recruited to multiple mid-level colleges. He spent three years behind one of the most productive RBs in college history in Donnel Pumphrey, despite averaging more yards per attempt in every season. He spent all three of those years as the team’s primary kick and punt returner. In Penny’s senior season he became the team’s leading rusher. He ran for 2,248 yards on 289 attempts for an average of 7.8 yards per carry and 25 total touchdowns. All of these were better numbers than Pumphrey ever had in a season.

While some may argue his level of competition at San Diego State was lower than other prospects, Penny thrived when facing Power Five competition. He rushed for 216 yards and 12 YPC against Arizona State and 175 yards and 5.5 YPC against Stanford. In 2017, following his outstanding senior season, the Seahawks drafted Penny with the 27th overall pick. Carroll and GM John Schneider both stated they saw Penny as a three-down back. Penny missed much of the preseason and team workouts due to a broken finger, jeopardizing his opportunity to beat out Carson for the job prior to the season. It is important to note that Penny did not have any injury history in college or high school (his broken finger was the first injury to note). It is also important to note that Penny entered the NFL with very little tread on his legs, which should give him a longer NFL shelf life.

There is one final point to make…and this is the most important one. Seattle lost 112 rushing attempts and 34 RB receptions from 2018 when Mike Davis left for “Da Bears.” Davis finished 2018 as RB 38 Weeks 1-16 with 123 PPR points. If we remove the points from his two starts (43.9), you end up with 79.1 points on the year. If you combine that with Penny’s points, it would be 148.9 points (or RB30). Assuming Carson has a fully healthy season as the starting RB in Seattle, and Penny receives the touches left behind by Davis, Penny’s floor is RB30 as the secondary RB in this system. If you include Davis’ two starts with those numbers, it becomes 192.8 points on the year (or RB 13). If Carson misses just two games, Penny’s floor is RB13.

Furthermore, if this is an open competition (it is), and Penny beats out Carson for the starting duties, Penny is a a locked-in top-12 RB. Penny is absolutely worth his current ADP and should be considered a top-20 dynasty running back.

 

 

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