Players To Avoid At ADP In 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts
Players To Avoid At ADP In 2023 Fantasy Football
Many fantasy football analysts like to keep things positive and only tell you the players they love. That’s because they’re afraid to be wrong. There’s nothing harder to swallow than a player spiking the ball in your face after you spent the entire summer telling your audience not to draft them. But we don’t play scared. We tell it like it is and aren’t afraid to put ourselves out there. More importantly, we’re confident in the work we’ve done to come to these takes. With that said, here are the players our team is avoiding in 2023 fantasy football drafts.
Related: The WORST Pick In Every Round Of 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts
Michael Pittman, WR, Colts
Michael Pittman disappointed fantasy managers last season after failing to hit the 100 reception mark on over 140 targets. The 25-year-old also could not finish with over 1,000 receiving yards and finished as the WR23 overall after being drafted as the WR10 overall on average. While the QB play in Indianapolis was bad last season, it could get even worse for the Colts’ passing attack in 2023. While rookie first-rounder Anthony Richardson is an exciting prospect, he is raw as a passer.
The former Florida Gator has a career completion rate of just 54.7%. With no other pass catcher good enough to take coverage and the run game about to lose Johnathan Taylor, Pittman is in for a year of heavy coverage and poorly placed passes. Going as the WR31 in the middle of the seventh round of current drafts, there are plenty of players like Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson, Jahon Dotson, Marquise Brown, and George Pickens that I would much rather have over Pittman in 2023.
-Ryan Larrison (@TripleFTP)
Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals
Higgins being drafted at WR13 (27 Overall), despite not eclipsing 1,100 yards or a top 15 finish at the position in his 3-year career, is someone that immediately comes to mind when asked “who are you avoiding in 2023?“. Let’s breakdown why, Joe Burrow & Ja’Marr Chase are the best QB/WR duo in the NFL and their connection dates all the way back to their college days at LSU in 2018 & were a major part in that unforgettable 2019 season.
Being the WR2 on your own team puts an immediate cap on your ceiling as a fantasy player making it difficult to live up to that high end WR2/Fringe WR1 ADP. On top of that they have other mouths to feed in this high-powered offense with Joe Mixon and yes even Tyler Boyd and newly acquired Irv Smith Jr will make an impact. While Tee Higgins may offer a nice and consistent floor this season, playing it safe in redraft will not help win you a championship and ultimate bragging rights. Consider drafting these players instead (in no order) even if it means waiting:
1. DJ Moore (WR22)
2. Calvin Ridley (WR17)
3. Amari Cooper (WR19)
4. Keenan Allen (WR18)
All players listed above are in my mind no doubt the WR1 in their ascending offenses and offer a much higher ceiling in fantasy to help push you towards a championship.
Too put a bow on all this, do I think Tee Higgins has a bright future in the NFL? Yes absolutely, I would go as far to say he would be a WR1 in plenty of other offenses in the NFL. That being said, until he can leave the Bengals i’m not sure we will see Higgins true fantasy ceiling.
-Ryan O (@FFDelly)
Darren Waller, TE, Giants
I feel like the consensus in the fantasy football community is Darren Waller will return to his top-5 status at the position. I’m pumping the breaks on that.
Waller is now on the Giants, who ranked 25th in pass attempts under first year head coach Brian Daboll. In his nine years as a play caller, Daboll’s teams have finished in the bottom-ten in pass attempts seven times. It wasn’t until his last two years in Buffalo where he broke that mold. Three Giants had over 70 targets last year, but no one had more than 80.
Waller will also turn 31 at the start of the season and has played in just 20 of 34 possible games since his TE2 season in 2020. He’s averaged just 8.84 PPG in half-PPR formats in that span. Not to mention, that 2020 season was the only time in his career he topped three touchdowns in a season (nine). It’s hard to trust a 31-year old tight end with recent injury concerns and lack of touchdown success. I hope I’m wrong and Waller returns to his 2020 form. But I’ll pass on the Waller hype for this season.
-Drew Roberts (@DrewRoberts_)
Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos
Following an ACL tear, 52% of RBs never reach more than 85% of their pre-injury fantasy production (per @FBInjuryDoc on X.com). Now, imagine a running back who not only tore his ACL but also tore his LCL and PCL. Also consider that this same running back has a new coaching staff, one that made it a priority in free agency to sign a highly capable 3rd down back in Samaje Perine. Oh, and the new head coach has a notorious history of using a committee backfield. These are all the reasons I am OUT on Javonte Williams for this season.
While I think his recovery and rehab from his devastating knee injury is nothing short of incredible, I do not have faith that he will be a worthwhile selection in fantasy drafts. Perine played on all the 3rd down snaps with the Broncos starters in their second preseason game, with Williams only in on early downs.
This will be indicative of how we can expect the season to go, as Perine stated that Payton’s pitch of his two-back system is what drew him to Denver. Between the brutal injury he must overcome both physically and mentally, and having another back knifing into his opportunities, Javonte Williams will not be on a single fantasy team of mine in 2023. At Williams’ current Sleeper ADP of 79.1, you can get another committee back withoutinjury concerns in David Montgomery (ADP of 82.7), or a pass-catching back in an elite offense with league-winning upside in James Cook (ADP of 85.2).
-Jacob Adams (@JacobAdamsNFL)
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers
In 2021 we watched Deebo Samuel have career highs in several categories. These included: targets (121), receptions (77), receiving yards (1405), yards per reception (18.2), rushing attempts (59), rushing yards (365), total touchdowns (14) and most importantly games played (16). All of this success had Deebo Samuel sitting at WR3 on the player rater for the 2021 season.
Going into 2022 expectations were sky high. Those expectations were not met, and Deebo Samuel saw a career low in receiving yards per game (48.6), yards per reception (11.3), and had just five total touchdowns which is second lowest in his career. With the midseason addition of Christian McCaffery, the emergence of Brandon Aiyuk, an iffy QB situation depending on the health of Brock Purdy, and one top-24 wide receiver finish under Deebo’s belt in four years, his ADP is one that is an easy fade for me. Go grab his teammate Brandon Aiyuk who seems to be emerging as the true wide receiver one for the San Fransico 49ers as the WR27 off the board and almost three full rounds later.
-Stephen Chalmers (@FFChalmers)
Alexander Mattison, RB, Vikings
The Dalvin Cook reign is over in Minnesota. Over the past couple of years, Alexander Mattison has been perceived as one of the better handcuffs in the NFL. Now he is RB1 in one of the more high-powered offenses.
Why am I not buying the RB1 in a good offense? Mattison is a solid early down, short yardage back. However, he doesn’t have a great receiving profile and lacks explosion. He has had some spike games when starting, but what is overlooked is the opponents he faced during those games.
At cost, I would much rather take a shot at these running backs: J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers, Alvin Kamara, Rachaad White, James Conner, or James Cook. All running backs being drafted around his ADP. All of those backs have a much better receiving profile, which can lead to a higher ceiling. Also, I’m still not convinced they don’t bring in another running back at some point, whether it’s via trade or free agency.
-Kevin Richards (@FF_KRich)
Quentin Johnston, WR, Chargers
Quentin Johnston got the sexy landing spot with the Chargers. His pairing with quarterback Justin Herbert has propelled him to a seventh round ADP. But that ADP seems to be ignoring the fact that Johnston is still behind both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the pecking order. And despite him declaring himself the WR3 during spring camp, Johnston has yet to overtake Josh Palmer. It may be a while before he gets there. Early on in training, Johnston seems to be struggling with drops. It’s an issue that plagued him in college—he dropped eight passes in 13 games last season and dropped multiple passes at his pro day.
Drops aside, Johnston wasn’t an overly impressive prospect, despite his first round draft capital. It was a slow progression to his 1,000-yard 2022 campaign and even that left a bit to be desired. He only averaged four receptions per game and his 18% touchdown share came in at about half of what we look for from incoming wide receiver prospects. Some want to crown him the next D.K. Metcalf or Mike Williams, but his play style just doesn’t fit that comp. Despite his 6-3 frame, Johnston is not a dominant contested catch guy. Instead, he tends to not high-point the ball, letting it come to him and opening it up to be played by the defender.
Johnston will need to develop his route tree beyond what he showed at TCU if he’s going to command targets ahead of Palmer, never mind ahead of Keenan Allen or Mike Williams. Johnston’s tree in college focused a lot on vertical routes. He was known as a deep threat. Yet, his 4.55 40-time does not project to being able to be that type of player against NFL cornerbacks. He is certainly not ready for a full-time starting role in the NFL, making his round seven ADP quite baffling.
-Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF)
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jaguars
The last time we got a full season from Calvin Ridley, he produced a WR4 season in 2020. But that included a lot of volume-fueled production in a year where Matt Ryan led the NFL in pass attempts and Julio Jones played just nine games. Outside of that, Ridley has never reached 900 yards in a season and he maxed out as the WR18 in 2019. In the five games we got from him in 2021, Ridley struggled with efficiency. He averaged under 1.5 yards per route and barely topped 9 yards per reception. His average target distance was under 10 yards.
Then, things got weird. Ridley stepped away from football to focus on his mental health and then he was suspended for the entire 2022 season for betting on NFL games.
Now he’s returning at age 29, two years since he last stepped on an NFL field and three years since we last got a productive season from him, and on a new team. Yet, his ADP suggests he’s a lock to pick up right where he left off. For one, he’s not going to just walk into Jacksonville and take over the WR1 job uncontested. And even if he is considered the WR1, he has real target competition. Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram all had career years in 2022. They’re not going away. And they’re all making more money than Ridley, for what it’s worth.
I’m not trying to argue that Ridley will be a flop in Jacksonville. All indications are he will have a good season. My argument is that he is not worthy of his second round ADP. Based on everything we’ve discussed, he should be going multiple rounds later. I would be comfortable considering him in round six or seven, but as someone who is costing a late second/early third right now, count me out on Ridley for 2023.
-Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF)
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Titans
I want it known that Nuk is a legend and formerly a QB-proof WR. However, it isn’t 2017 anymore. He’s going to be in a defense + run game type team for success and entering his age 31 season.
Now I know Nuk was fairly good last year after his suspension. He had 7 of 9 games with double digit targets. He had over 79 yards in 6 of those 9 games. The yeah-but is coming… that was in an air-raid offense and Kyler Murray for 7 of the games. Now enter the Titans who could possibly not even start Tannehill for the whole season. Not to mention Treylon Burks is a 2nd year, first round wide receiver they have to want to feature.
End of the day, this offense literally runs through Derrick Henry and doesn’t move at a quick pace of play (Tennessee was 31st in offensive plays per game and Arizona was 3rd). Nuk is going 48th in Underdog best ball drafts, WR25. I’m not touching him at that ADP, and I would much rather be a year too early getting off the Hopkins train than a year too late. Give me Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk, or (my guy) Diontae Johnson going 2-7 picks later all day.
-Dennis Healy (@Madison_Madman)
Do you agree with our avoids for 2023 fantasy football? Who are you fading? Jump in our Discord and join the discussion!
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