Zero RB: The Winning Draft Strategy For 2023 Fantasy Football

The Zero RB draft strategy is alive and well. In fact, 2023 is shaping up to be the best year to draft Zero RB ever. The overall fantasy football market, running back depth and valuation, and the importance of drafting elite wide receivers have all aligned to point towards Zero RB being the ultimate draft strategy for 2023.

Defining Zero RB

Let’s start by defining Zero RB. The Zero RB term and strategy was originated by Shawn Siegele back in 2013. The basis of the strategy—as defined by Siegele—is to take, at most, one high-upside running back in either the fourth or fifth round of a draft or, in most cases, not to take any until at least the sixth round.

More: The WORST Pick In Every Round Of 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts

WHY ZERO RB?

It wasn’t long ago when the first round of fantasy football drafts was mostly, if not all, running backs. Yet, in today’s game, when you look at ADP data, there are routinely 6+ wide receivers being drafted in the first round. And the craze doesn’t stop there. Wide receivers are being drafted in the early rounds at a higher rate than ever. You could galaxy brain yourself into thinking you should zig when others zag and load up on running backs early. But there are a couple problems with that. First, the high-end wide receivers are performing like never before and delivering the dominant week-winning performances and league-winning seasons that we used to count on from running backs. Plus, sometimes we just need to follow the market. If the market is telling us we need to get our wide receivers early, then we need to get our wide receivers early. 

At the same time, there aren’t enough bell cow running backs to think we could gain an advantage by drafting running back-heavy early, anyway. The NFL has shifted to a more committee focused approach to their backfields, which makes those high fantasy point outputs fewer and farther between. It also gives us more usable running backs because there are more teams than ever giving us multiple fantasy relevant backs. Now the supply is greater than it used to be, which brings down the demand. 

We can also look at fragility. When the Zero RB Draft strategy was first coined by Shawn Siegele, the forefront of his argument was that running backs are far more fragile and have a high bust rate compared to the other positions. In fact, since 2017, 20% of running backs with an ADP in round one or two have missed five or more games during the course of a single season. (Rotostreetjournal)

THE GOAL

The basis of the strategy then became to load up on wide receivers early with at least one quarterback or tight end in the first five rounds, then find running backs with upside for high scoring weeks without paying high draft capital. However, it doesn’t end there. We’re not just accepting that we are going to play pin-the-tail on the running back all season long and let that position be a weak point. We want it to become a strength. Whether that’s through hitting on a mid or late-round running back in the draft that performs like an early round pick, or by working the waiver wire during the season to find that hero mid-season add. 

Whatever the route, the ultimate goal is that by the end of the season, we are just as strong at running back as our league mates. The difference is, we also have stud wide receivers, quarterbacks, and tight ends because we drafted top-tier guys early. We want to build a juggernaut. A successful Zero RB team will do this while accessing upside and unlocking a ceiling greater than that of other roster constructions. That’s why if you’re not getting a top-8 back in the first two rounds, you might as well wait on the position. Drafting third round running backs who don’t have elite ceilings, won’t allow our teams to reach that maximum potential.

WHEN TO DRAFT ZERO RB?

Of course, this is easier said than done. Zero RB is a very niche strategy that can be very effective. But we have to know when to use it. League settings are important when considering taking the Zero RB approach on draft day. 

The optimal leagues for this strategy will have:

• FAAB bidding: This allows you to be aggressive rather than being held down by the waiver wire priority order.  If you are able to bid aggressively, you can be sure you acquire the hot waiver wire running backs 
• PPR or 0.5 PPR: A must to pull this off because it brings more value to wide receivers, and increases the depth of usable running backs
• Two RB starters: Allows the chance to load up on WRs early as opponent drafters are taking more running backs and taking them earlier 
• Able to start at least 4-5 WRs: This includes flex spots. With all those early WRs, you’ll have an edge in multiple starting slots

Draft slot is also important. If you’re in position to draft a stud running back like Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler or even guys in the second round like Nick Chubb or Tony Pollard, there’s no need to pass over them just to force the Zero RB strategy. Instead, you can pivot to what is sometimes called “Hero RB” or “Anchor RB” which is when you draft one early round stud running back and then wait many rounds before drafting another. 

HOW TO ZERO RB

Okay, so we understand the strategy and when to use it. But now we need to know how to do it effectively. 

After we load up on wide receivers early, with maybe an elite quarterback or tight end as well, we will eventually need to start drafting running backs. This is where it gets challenging. It’s not always easy to find quality running back talent with potential to smash their ADP once we get past the first few rounds. This is why so many fantasy drafters shy away from Zero RB. But it’s also why it’s so effective when done right. 

When it’s time to start actually drafting running backs, we can’t just pick any random backs. Remember, we’re looking for running backs who can exceed their ADP with the upside to return early-round production at a late-round price.

There are several archetypes of running backs that we should target when drafting Zero RB:

• From An Uncertain Backfield: We’re ultimately looking for a breakout star. Many times, breakout running backs come from ambiguous situations. 
• Rookies: Late-round rookies naturally have contingent upside. We haven’t seen them on an NFL field before so there is a lot of unknown, specifically in regards to their role. They often come from these aforementioned uncertain backfield situations.
• Have Contingent Upside: These are your handcuff running backs. But they’re not just any backups. They have to be the clear and obvious backup where we know if the starter goes down, they are going to assume the majority of the workload. Very few of these exist in today’s NFL. 
• Receiving Backs: Pure receiving running backs don’t give us the league-winning upside that we really want when drafting Zero RB, but they can give us some stand-alone value and be an early season bridge to what will hopefully be an emerging breakout from someone else. We still need to survive the early weeks of the season. These guys can help us do that.

It doesn’t stop there. Not every handcuff running back or rookie running back, or running back from an uncertain backfield are the same. Within these archetypes, are a few other characteristics we need to pursue. 

We want these running backs to:

• Be Athletic 
• Play In A Good Offense
• Have Touchdown Upside
• Have Receiving Upside

These characteristics allow for the most upside if/when they get their opportunity. These are the running backs who will make for a successful Zero RB strategy.

DURING THE SEASON

Once the draft is complete, however, the strategy is not over. It’s really just getting started. We need to be vigilant and aggressive on the waiver wire, identifying running backs who can capture the same type of upside that we look for in our draft targets. Luckily, because we took such a different approach on draft day, we won’t have to compete as much with our league mates for waiver pickups. While they are already strong at running back, they are more likely to be targeting wide receivers and tight ends off waivers. As Zero RB drafters, we will already be strong at wide receiver and have less competition for those important running back adds.

Our benches need to include multiple handcuff running backs who are ready to explode the second their starter goes down. We can even roster some rookies who have been discarded by their original drafters who got impatient because they weren’t producing right away (because they’re rookies). Every year we see multiple rookie running backs go off in the last month or so of the season after a slow start. This can also be a good strategy when attacking the trade market.

 

More: 9 Gross Running Backs You Need To Draft In 2023 Fantasy Football

Zero RB In 2023

We know the strategy inside and out at this point. Now we need to find the running backs that fit our desired archetypes and characteristics for 2023. The great news is, 2023 is shaping up to be the best year yet to draft Zero RB. That’s because more than ever, running backs are being devalued by the fantasy football market. It wasn’t long ago that the first round of drafts were nearly all running backs. Now, we’re lucky if we get more than three in round one. As the importance of wide receiver production and even elite quarterback play has increased, talented workhorse running backs in good situations have been pushed to the middle-to-late rounds. 

A few years ago, running backs like Cam Akers, Joe Mixon, and Aaron Jones would be going in the first three rounds of every single fantasy draft. Now, they’ve been pushed into the middle rounds. That also means the traditional middle and late-round running backs are being pushed down the board even further. That’s why we can wait and wait and wait on the position.

2023 Zero RB Draft Targets

Here are the running backs that fit some of the archetypes and characteristics that are important for Zero RB targets. There are a bunch which illustrates further why Zero RB is the best strategy for 2023.

D’Andre Swift, Eagles

Even while playing just 34% of the snaps, Swift managed to end the season top-12 in targets, receptions, and receiving yards among running backs. He was No.2 in yards per touch (6.3) and top-5 in yards per route (1.78). When given carries, Swift was efficient but also explosive, breaking off a run of 15 yards or more on more than 8% of his rush attempts while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Swift was also No.7 in expected points added and top-3 in fantasy points per opportunity (PlayerProfiler.com). That was in 14 games. 

The point is, when given opportunity, Swift has been far better than the general fantasy football community gives him credit for. That means if the Eagles decide to give him a significant portion of their backfield touches, especially in the passing game, Swift has an elite ceiling. 

Zero RB Boxes Checked:

• Uncertain Backfield
• Athletic 
• Receiving Upside
• Good Offense

 

David Montgomery, Lions

It feels cliché to say at this point, but Montgomery projects to slide right into the role that Jamaal Williams held on his way to 1,000 yards and 17 touchdowns. Yet, Montgomery is a better version of Williams across the board. He’s bigger, evades more tackles, is far more efficient as a runner, and adds more value in the passing game. Montgomery was an RB1 in fantasy football in two of his last three seasons and he has scored as an RB2 or better 18 times over the last two. So, we know he can produce.

He may not score 17 touchdowns, but Montgomery can realistically get to 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns with 30 receptions in this offense. And yes, I said 30 receptions. The Lions targeted running backs 115 times last season. Not all of that is going to go to the rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery has proven to be underrated in the passing game and has averaged three receptions per game over the last three seasons. When adding that to his rushing numbers, we should easily get a solid top-24 running back season from Montgomery.

Zero RB Boxes Checked:

• Uncertain Backfield
• Good Offense
• Touchdown Upside
• Pass Catcher

 

James Conner, Cardinals

James Conner is going to be a volume-driven RB2 in 2023. The Cardinals offense is going to lean on him in both the run game and on check-downs, especially while Kyler Murray is out. Even if/when Murray returns, he’s not going to be running around on that repaired knee so they’ll still be leaning on Conner. He could absolutely finish top-10 in fantasy points per game for the third-straight year. Yet, his ADP is in round seven.

Zero RB Boxes Checked: 

• Receiving Upside
• Touchdown Upside

 

Rachaad White, Buccaneers 

Rachaad White might be the steal of every 2023 fantasy football draft right now. He is in line for a significant workload but is being drafted as a mid-range RB3. White had a productive rookie season even while starting the year behind Leonard Fournette. The team turned to the rookie in Week 10, giving him a surprise start over the veteran. In the international stage in Germany, White ran through the Seahawks for 105 yards and his second RB2 performance.

White took double-digit carries in four of the last seven regular season games and finished as a top-25 running back in all four with two top-10 weeks. Over that stretch, White showed off his receiving skills by averaging five receptions per game to finish the season with 50 catches. 

Remember, White was a strong prospect coming out of Arizona State last year. The team invested a third round pick on him and for good reason. Not only is he a big, explosive runner, he is one of the best receiving backs to enter the league in the last five years. While leading Arizona State in rushing yards in 2021, he also had the team’s second-highest share of receiving yards. And sure, the pundits will criticize him for his inefficiency as a runner in 2022, but he was a rookie, for one, and was behind the NFL’s most injury-depleted offensive line. He still managed to out-perform the other players in his backfield from an efficiency perspective. The line is now healed and the path has been paved for a huge workload. 

Zero RB Boxes Checked:

• Athletic 
• Receiving Upside
• Touchdown Upside 

 

Related: 4 Running Backs Who Are Massive Values In 2023

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs

From Week 10 through the super bowl, Pacheco averaged 12 fantasy points per game while scoring double-digit points in 10 of the last 12 contests. Pacheco scored as a top-24 running back in six of the last eight games of the season and capped off his rookie year by scoring a touchdown in the super bowl. He played 56% of the snaps in both the AFC Championship game and the super bowl. He carried the ball 10 or more times in each playoff game, including seven times in the red zone which was more than double what McKinnon got.

Looking ahead to 2023, the team brought back McKinnon but did not add anyone of significance to the backfield. That means Pacheco is secure atop the depth chart, at least when it comes to early downs and short yardage/goal line. That’s all he needs in this offense to be a top-24 producer for fantasy football. After all, this is the Patrick Mahomes offense. They scored 61 touchdowns last season. Edwards-Helaire scored six of those in the first weeks. Now that role is Pacheco’s for a full season.

It’s realistic to project Pacheco for 200 carries, 25 receptions, 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. And that’s not even his ceiling. 

Zero RB Boxes Checked:

• Athletic 
• Good Offense
• Touchdown Upside

 

Antonio Gibson, Commanders

There’s been some chatter that Antonio Gibson could finally get some more touches in the Washington offense. Head coach Ron Rivera made comments about wanting to get Gibson more involved multiple times during the offseason and they were unprompted which makes them a little more believable. Maybe new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has talked some sense into him. 

Gibson is 10x more talented than his backfield mate Brian Robinson. Robinson is your typical between the tackles, non-explosive grinder back. Gibson is a big dude with incredible athleticism and explosion. He was a receiver in college so we know he’s good in the passing game. In fact, Gibson was top-12 in target share, yards per reception, and yards per route in 2022 while playing a limited role. Remember, he was a top-20 RB in each of his first two seasons and ran for 1,000 yards in 2021.

Zero RB Boxes Checked:

• Uncertain Backfield
• Athletic 
• Receiving Upside
• Touchdown Upside

 

Rashaad Penny, Eagles

Over the last two seasons when he’s been healthy, Penny has been one of the more productive running backs in the league. He was a league-winner in fantasy football in 2021 with how dominant he was over the last month. For his career, Penny has a yards per carry average of 5.7. To put it in perspective, Nick Chubb’s career average is 5.2. Jonathan Taylor’s is 5.1 and Derrick Henry’s is 4.8. Narrow it down to his 11 starts between 2021-2022, Penny’s average jumps to an amazing 6.8 on 151 rush attempts. 

Penny is a big, physical back who also runs with great explosion and the speed to rip off long runs. He broke off a run of 15 yards or more six times in the five games he played last season which was more than 10% of his carries. He did that at a league-leading 12.6% clip in 2021 (PlayerProfiler). His explosiveness and speed could really be dangerous running behind an elite o-line. 

Zero RB Boxes Checked:

• Uncertain Backfield
• Athletic 
• Good Offense
• Touchdown Upside

Related: Deciphering The Eagles Backfield: Which Running Back To Target For Fantasy Football In 2023

Damien Harris, Bills

Harris joins a Bills offense that is set up perfectly for him to succeed. Buffalo was a top-5 scoring unit in both 2021 and 2022 with little reason to believe they won’t be highly ranked again in 2023. As a touchdown scoring specialist, that plays right into Harris’ hands. The Bills have said numerous times this offseason that they want to start pulling back on Josh Allen’s designed runs and protect his body a bit better for the long run. That means, there could be more opportunities for a 216 lb running back with 20 rushing touchdowns in three years like Harris to see more goal line and short yardage opportunities. 

He’s 20 lbs heavier than James Cook and seven years younger than Latavius Murray so it wouldn’t be a shock to see Harris lead the Bills in total carries as well as red zone touches.

Zero RB Boxes Checked:

• Uncertain Backfield
• Good Offense
• Touchdown Upside

 

Elijah Mitchell, 49ers

Elijah Mitchell enters the 2023 season as the clear handcuff to Christian McCaffrey. However, he showed he could provide some stand-alone value alongside a healthy CMC. In six games that the two played together last season (including playoffs), Mitchell averaged 11 touches per game.  Four of those were regular season games, three of which resulted in top-36 performances. 

But let’s be real, we are drafting him for the massive contingent upside that he brings in the case of a McCaffrey injury. McCaffrey is no stranger to the injury report. He missed 23 games with five separate injuries between 2020-2021. He managed to stay healthy in 2022, but he’s 27 years old and undersized. There’s a real chance the injury bug comes back around in 2023. 

If that happens, Mitchell will be in line for a significant workload. We already know he can produce at a high level in this offense based on his rookie season performance. With an ADP in the 11th round, it doesn’t cost much to buy this lottery ticket. The payoff could be huge.

Zero RB Boxes Checked:

• Contingent Value 
• Athletic 
• Good Offense
• Touchdown Upside

 

Jaylen Warren, Steelers

Jaylen Warren is one of fantasy football’s top handcuff running backs. As an undrafted rookie in 2022, Warren proved to be a more than capable backup to Najee Harris. Some even believed he should have been starting ahead of the former first-rounder. Warren even gave his fantasy managers some stand-alone value with six top-36 performances. He displayed good receiving skills by catching 28 passes while playing in a reserve role. With the added receiving upside, Warren would be a weekly RB2 if anything were to happen to Harris.

Zero RB Boxes Checked:

• Contingent Value
• Receiving Upside

 

Roschon Johnson, Bears

The Bears drafted Roshcon Johnson in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Johnson spent most of his college career in the shadow of Bijan Robinson, but he flashed an exceptional skill set when given opportunity. At Texas, Johnson showed excellent vision, patience, and instincts as a runner. He’s a big back at 6-0, 219 lbs who runs with a dangerous mix of power and finesse. Johnson has the athleticism to be a lead back in the NFL. 

Where he really gets the edge in the Bears backfield, though, is with his receiving skills. Because he was behind Robinson, the numbers don’t accurately reflect his true talent in this area of the game, but Johnson proved to be a natural receiver when given the chance. He caught 25 passes over his last two seasons and had 23 as a true freshman. In a backfield where he’s competing with two backs who are clearly not pass catchers, this gives Johnson a real edge for playing time. Johnson is one of the better pass-blocking running backs to enter the NFL in recent seasons which will make his case for a third-down role that much stronger.

There is absolutely a world where Johnson takes the RB1 job in Chicago outright. In that case, it’s wheels up and he becomes one of the great steals of the 2023 fantasy football season.

Zero RB Boxes Checked:

• Uncertain Backfield
• Rookie
• Contingent Value
• Athletic 
• Receiving Upside

Related: Deciphering The Bears Backfield: Which Running Back To Target For Fantasy Football In 2023

Kenneth Gainwell, Eagles

Kenneth Gainwell showed us enough last season to think he can play a big part of the Eagles backfield in 2023 despite the other additions they made at the position. Gainwell’s usage was cranked up in the playoffs when he had back-to-back games with double-digit carries and ended the postseason with 33 attempts and 181 rushing yards (5.5 YPC). 

Gainwell has been good when given opportunity. Unfortunately, the volume to this point in his career hasn’t been enough to be relevant in fantasy football. He’s averaged over four yards per carry in each season and ranked No.7 in fantasy points per touch in 2022. He has managed to finish No.7 and No.5 in fantasy points per opportunity thus far in his career.

If Rashaaf Penny and D’Andre Swift battle more injuries—neither has been the epitome of health in their careers—Gainwell could really be something in fantasy football. There is also a world where the coaches trust him more than the other running backs or he is the only healthy one for a significant portion of the season and he winds up a weekly starter in Philly and our fantasy lineups.

Zero RB Boxes Checked:

• Uncertain Backfield
• Athletic 
• Receiving Upside
• Good Offense

 

Chuba Hubbard, Panthers

In two seasons in the NFL, Chuba Hubbard has proven to be a quality running back. He started 10 games in 2021 and managed five top-24 performances while sharing a backfield. He finished with 612 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 172 carries. After the Panthers traded away Christian McCaffrey during the 2022 season, Hubbard was again productive while operating behind D’Onta Foreman. Hubbard maintained a 4.9 yards per carry average while ranking sixth in yards per touch (5.8). He also had a respectable 2.81 yards created per touch which ranked 26th among running backs (PlayerProfiler). 

Despite the free agent signing of Miles Sanders, Hubbard has a shot to play a much bigger role than anticipated. Even if not, Hubbard has proven to be a quality option when called upon and doesn’t need a bellcow role to get it done. In the event of a Sanders injury, Hubbard can absolutely get you some productive weeks.

Zero RB Boxes Checked:

• Contingent Value
• Athletic 
• Receiving Upside

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