Play vs Us On Underdog! Use Promo-Code: YARDSPER for a 100% deposit match up to $100!
Week 3 of the NFL season saw more busts than usual as scoring league-wide is at its lowest point since 2006. That just makes it all the more imperative that you read this article every week for the few trust picks that will win you the week. I’ll be putting my reputation on the line every week as I choose an entire fantasy team of lower-ranked players to score over a certain threshold of points, players that I trust. I’ll then choose another fantasy team of highly ranked players to score under a certain threshold of points, players that will bust. You’ll find a tally of my hits and misses throughout the season on each weekly article to make sure I’m holding myself accountable, and so all of you can call me bad names on Twitter.
Week 3 Results
- I may have to change the format of these picks because there was a total of 6 quarterbacks that scored over 20 points in week 3. Mariota was a quality streamer but only made it to the 16-point threshold, ranking QB15 on the week. It’s rough out on the waiver streets these days but I consider this a mild win. Mariota is moving the ball much better than was projected before the season and Drake London looks like a legitimate alpha receiver.
- It was similarly horrible at the running back position in week 3 with only 10 running backs scoring over 15 fantasy points. I’ll also give this pick a mild win as Pollard looked explosive on the ground, rumbling for over 100 yards on the day. They couldn’t get him going through the air to have a dominant fantasy week with Ceedee Lamb and Noah Brown dominating targets. The Cowboys look competent with Rush at quarterback, though, so this isn’t an offense to shy away from.
- Another near hit was Damien Harris, but his usage cratered as Rhamondre Stevenson has seemingly taken over. Harris had just a 38 percent snap share and can now be looked at as a true touchdown-dependent running back. That’s going to be tough to count on as Stevenson also had two goal-line carries to Harris’ one.
- Tyler Lockett is looking like a draft-day steal as, according to FantasyPros, he was drafted as the WR45. This passing game looks like a great buy-low candidate as Pete Carroll delivered on his promise to air it out more often. Seattle has run a play every 25.9 seconds through week 3, ranking 4th in the NFL. They also have a pass rate of 2.2 percent above expectation in all game scripts, which ranks 12th. Carroll has finally made it to the 21st century.
- I made the mistake of relying on this Chicago passing game. Every player on the Bears is unusable until Justin Fields and the coaching staff figures this out. It may not be anytime soon because not only can they not complete passes, but they’re winning while playing like this. That means we’re getting the lowest pass rate over expected until the wheels fall off.
- Evan Engram didn’t do much for your fantasy team this week but his usage continues to be impressive. He ran a route on 80 percent of dropbacks and was very close to converting his end-zone target to a score. This is an ascending offense and you could do worse than Engram as a streamer most weeks.
- For everyone not named Courtland Sutton it’s been a slog out in Broncos’ country. It’s reasonable to expect Russell Wilson to take some time to adjust to the new offense, but we need to lower expectations until we see that happen. They’ve been a run-oriented, slow-paced team so far and Nathaniel Hackett is hiring a game management coach due to his late-game blunders. I don’t see an end to the struggles soon.
- I might as well pick Najee Harris as a bust every week because it looks almost impossible for him to score over 15 fantasy points. Jaylen Warren has looked more explosive in his limited touches. I expect the Steelers to hand the reigns to Kenny Pickett soon and that could unleash some upside for Harris. Until that happens he should be ranked as a low-end RB2.
- The Broncos are going to have better days on offense, but Javonte Williams’ usage hasn’t been what fantasy managers were envisioning when drafting him in the second round. He had a sub-50 percent snap share and was sniped by Melvin Gordon on a goal-line carry for a score. It was encouraging that he received 20 touches on his limited snap share. Denver’s offense will continually improve and Williams is a perfect buy-low candidate ahead of their matchup against the Raiders in week 4.
- The process was right in fading the Washington offense against the Eagles, but McLaurin was the wrong choice. Darius Slay didn’t shadow McLaurin but struggled when he did. Washington’s defense is seventh worst according to PFF, so Carson Wentz is going to be in a bunch of trailing game scripts. The tough part is figuring out which of his weapons will be the beneficiary of all of those passes.
- D.J Moore was drafted as the WR14 according to FantasyPros, but he is now WR61 through week 3. Baker Mayfield looks lost, and this has led to Moore having a catchable target rate of 50 percent. Last year with Sam Darnold it was a much better 71.6 percent, and that ranked 71st in the NFL. Moore is not a buy-low candidate as I don’t see him getting much better with this kind of disfunction on offense.
- Pat Freiermuth had a dud in week 3 but he’s still the TE10 on the season. He seems to be in the tier below an every week starter at the position, so I would consider streaming a waiver wire tight end when in tough matchups.
Week 2 Record: 6-6
Season Record: 21-15
Fantasy Trust Circle: Week 4
I must choose a quarterback outside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 4 rankings to score over 20 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
QB: Geno Smith (Week 4 Forecast: 310 Passing Yards, 10 Rushing Yards, 3 Touchdowns)
Geno has been unleashed! 44 pass attempts in week 3 led to a QB7 finish for Smith, who is quietly 10th in PFF passing grade for the year. He now goes up against a bottom-5 defense in the Lions who they’ll have to keep up with offensively. Was Geno actually the best chef all this time?
I must choose two running backs outside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 4 rankings to score over 15 fantasy points in a PPR format.
RB: Rhamondre Stevenson (Week 4 Forecast: 80 Rushing Yards, 5 Receptions, 40 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
This Patriots’ backfield is quickly becoming Stevenson’s after seeing 62 percent of the snaps and 63 percent routes run per dropback. That is low-end RB1 usage and this week he gets a Packers defense that has been gashed on the ground and is one of the worst tackling defenses in the NFL. The Mac Jones injury is a negative overall for this offense but Brian Hoyer should look often for Stevenson in the passing game.
RB: Kareem Hunt (Week 4 Forecast: 45 Rushing Yards, 4 Receptions, 40 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
Through week 3 Kareem Hunt is the RB15 in PPR scoring, far exceeding his ADP of RB32. He had three carries inside the 10-yard line in week 3 but couldn’t find the endzone on any of them. This should be a competitive game against the Falcons so he’ll see his normal 15 touch workload. He’ll see some positive regression and be able to convert for a touchdown.
I must choose two wide receivers outside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 4 rankings to score over 15 fantasy points in a PPR format.
WR: D.K. Metcalf (Week 4 Forecast: 7 Receptions, 95 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
Metcalf was finally able to find the endzone in week 3, but it could’ve been a much bigger game with five endzone targets. The Seahawks are finally running a fast-paced, pass-first offense and Metcalf will start to take advantage in the coming weeks. This season he’s only been able to turn 25 targets into 135 yards, so positive regression will be coming. Week 4 he finally gets a break from the tough defenses.
WR: Treylon Burks (Week 4 Forecast: 5 Receptions, 90 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
Burks is going to breakout in the coming weeks so hop on the train while it’s still at the station. He ran a route on 96 percent of the Titans’ dropbacks in week 3, more than Robert Woods and every other receiver. It was a blessing in disguise that he only caught one pass last week as this is the perfect buy-low opportunity. He’s the only juice this offense has with slower, possession receivers around him and Derrick Henry looking sluggish. The defense hasn’t impressed so far so the passing game scripts will be coming.
I must choose one tight end outside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 4 rankings to score over 10 fantasy points in a PPR format.
TE: Robert Tonyan (Week 4 Forecast: 6 Receptions, 45 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
Tonyan continues to progress in his usage after the ACL tear he suffered last year. He ran a route on 61 percent of dropbacks in week 3 and that has been trending up. He had a solid 32 percent target rate per route run and Aaron Rodgers is desperately looking for pass-catchers he can trust. He has a positive matchup against New England so this could be the week he breaks out with a touchdown.
Fantasy Busts: Week 4
I must choose a quarterback inside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 4 rankings to score under 20 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
QB: Patrick Mahomes (Week 4 Forecast: 260 Passing Yards, 10 Rushing Yards, 1 Touchdown, 1 Interception)
Mahomes and the offense have looked sluggish the last two weeks and they haven’t been able to run the ball consistently. It looks like they miss Tyreek Hill more than they care to admit. They don’t have any gamebreakers on offense so they have to rely on shorter throws and Mahomes making something out of nothing. They’ll now have to go up against the best coverage unit in the NFL in the Buccaneers. You’re starting him if he’s on your team but I would limit expectations.
I must choose two running backs inside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 4 rankings to score under 14 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
RB: Derrick Henry (Week 4 Forecast: 75 Rushing Yards, 3 Receptions, 20 Receiving Yards)
Henry has looked slower and less powerful than his heyday of two years ago, and the proof is in the advanced stats pudding. His yards after contact per attempt is usually his calling card, but he has ranked just 22nd among running backs this year. That drop-off is a trend over the last two years, as is his 24th ranked PFF rushing grade of 67.9. He’s still a must-start because of his overwhelming usage, but he’s no longer the best runner in the NFL. It could get ugly against a returning Shaquille Leonard and the Colts’ tough run defense.
RB: Joe Mixon (Week 4 Forecast: 45 Rushing Yards, 3 Receptions, 20 Receiving Yards)
The Bengals’ offensive line has been a mess and Mixon has paid for it: he has 2.8 yards per attempt on the season and suffered an ankle injury in week 3. He should be able to play, but now goes up against the Dolphins’ defense that are bottom five against the pass and top five against the rush. It hasn’t all been on his offensive line, though, as Mixon ranks 49th out of all running backs in PFF rushing grade. This is a situation to avoid for right now.
I must choose two wide receivers inside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 4 rankings to score under 14 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
WR: Deebo Samuel (Week 4 Forecast: 5 Receptions, 55 Receiving Yards, 10 Rushing Yards)
The 49ers averaged 6.2 yards per play with Trent Williams on the field in week 3. When Trent Williams went down with a high ankle sprain they averaged 3.7 yards per play. This is a crushing blow to Jimmy G and the offense, and that will be very apparent when they play the Rams this week. The Rams have the best rush defense in the league and should be able to slow down Samuel on the ground. Without a ground game and facing the Rams’ pass rush without Trent Williams, Garoppolo will put up pedestrian numbers.
WR: Amari Cooper (Week 4 Forecast: 5 Receptions, 55 Receiving Yards)
Cooper was able to stick it to his many off-season haters the last two weeks with two WR1 finishes. He’ll come back down to earth in this matchup with Atlanta, who has a surprisingly stout defense. Cooper has been able to take advantage of two juicy matchups, but PFF has him at a below average matchup advantage in week 3. He stays primarily outside where he’ll see a big dose of A.J. Terrell, so I expect this to be a running back-centric offense for the Browns.
I must choose one tight end inside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 4 rankings to score under 10 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
TE: Zach Ertz (Week 4 Forecast: 4 Receptions, 30 Receiving Yards)
Ertz has been surviving on trailing game scripts and big time throw rates by Kyler Murray. That narrative should flip this week against a Carolina team that is struggling to score points. Carolina has allowed 77 scoreless yards to tight ends this season and PFF gives Ertz a -21 percent matchup advantage. The way to attack Carolina is through wide receivers as they allowed two 100 yard receivers last week.
RANKINGS | WEEKLY | DYNASTY |
