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Week 4 Adds, Drops, Buys, and Sells
What a week! Week 3 was exhilarating but the turnaround is quick. Waivers are running and we have championship rosters to build. With that in mind, here are the adds, drops, buys, and sells to consider making in Week 4.
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Add Khalil Herbert
This one is obvious. If you’re reading this article, you’re probably in a league where Herbert is already rostered anyway. With David Montgomery facing some missed time with injury, Herbert will be the guy in the Bears backfield. He looked quite good after taking over in Week 3. So good that he finished the week as the highest scoring running back in fantasy football. We saw him perform well when given an opportunity last year, too.
Add Jamaal Williams
Like Herbert, Williams should have already been stashed/rostered in most leagues. If he’s still available, go get him. He has some stand-alone value and he’ll see an increase in opportunity if D’Andre Swift misses time.
Add Craig Reynolds
Okay, now we get to the good stuff. Craig Reynolds is a sneaky add off the waiver wire with D’Andre Swift likely to miss the next two games. Reynolds played well in his opportunities last season, scoring as a top-24 running back in Weeks 14 and 15 with both Swift and Williams sidelined. You probably don’t have to spend much FAAB to get him.
Add Zay Jones
I talked about Zay Jones in the preseason as a late-round WR to target. I talked about him again in this Gameplan article after Week 1. He’s had target shares of 21-percent, 13-percent, and 28-percent to start the season. Now he’s coming off a Week 3 performance in which he caught 10-of-11 targets for 85 yards and a score. If he’s still available on your waiver wire, scoop him up and don’t let him go. He’ll be a startable WR3/flex for the rest of the season.
Buy Breece Hall
Breece Hall’s Week 3 performance was far more impressive than his fantasy output will tell you. While he’s going to continue to split snaps, carries, and targets with Michael Carter, it appears Week 3 may have been the beginning of a changing of the guard in the Jets backfield. Carter had a slight edge in most usage categories through two weeks, but Hall out-snapped Carter (51% to 49%) for the first time in Week 3. Hall also had a 21-percent target share to Carter’s 4-percent. Hall is one of the better running back prospects to enter the league in recent seasons. That tells us two things. First, that it’s inevitable he is going to take on more opportunities as the season goes along. And second, that when he does become the true No.1, he has the skill to become a real difference maker in fantasy football.
Sell Chase Edmonds
Chase Edmonds was used as Miami’s clear RB1 in Week 1. Since then, though, Raheem Mostert has been the top dog. Despite scoring two touchdowns in Week 3, Edmonds was out-snapped by Mostert 56-percent to 44-percent. Mostert also doubled Edmonds’ target share (10-percent to 5-percent) and ran 11 routes (50-percent route participation) to Edmonds’ eight (36.4-percent). Your league-mates who only look at the box score will see Edmonds had a good game because he scored two touchdowns. That should allow you to get a decent return in a trade. Take advantage.
Buy Joe Mixon
It’s well known that the Bengals offensive line has gotten off to a slow start. But considering how much they invested into upgrading that unit this offseason, we have to believe they’ll gel at some point, right? That would be great news for Joe Burrow and the passing attack, but also Joe Mixon. Mixon has averaged just three yards per carry in every game as he struggles to find running lanes. However, the usage is encouraging. He’s averaged 19 carries per game and has had target shares of 17-percent, 11-percent, and 19-percent to start the season. That is elite bellcow usage that barely and handful of running backs enjoy. If the o-line and offense as a whole gets it together, Mixon is going to be a fantasy monster.
Add Tyler Conklin
Tyler Conklin was a sneaky add after Week 2 when he had a 20-percent target share while running 89-percent of the routes. Then he came out and was one of the highest scoring tight ends in Week 3 after catching eight of eight targets for 84 yards. The usage remained high with a 73.2-percent route participation rate and a 15-percent target share.
Sell Antonio Gibson
We were all celebrating after Week 1 when Antonio Gibson ran 14 times and had a 20-percent target share. Since then, the carries have remained stable, but the passing game usage has declined every week. His target shares have been 9-percent and 2-percent over the last two weeks while the team has gone back to playing JD McKissic on passing downs. In fact, McKissic ran double Gibson’s number of routes (30 to 15) in Week 3. Now, Gibson’s rushing share could be in danger with the imminent return of rookie Brian Robinson. The touchdown should help Gibson hold his value for another week. Just long enough to shop him around.
Hold Treylon Burks
I’ve seen a few people mention on Twitter this week that they’re considering dropping Treylon Burks. These are the people who only look at the box score and see that he had one catch for 13 yards. While that’s certainly not good, there’s a bit more we can hang our hats on here. Burks ran a route on 27 of Ryan Tannehill’s 29 drop backs (96.4-percent), which led all Titans wide receivers. His snaps are also up from 37-percent in Week 1 to 45-percent in Week 2, and 69-percent in Week 3. The team also manufactured a touch for him in Week 3 as he received his first rush attempt (eight yards).
While his 8-percent target share was discouraging, he target numbers were solid in the first two weeks (15% and 25%). In fact, he entered the week with a 37.9-percent target rate (targets per route) which ranked eighth among all NFL wide receivers according to PlayerProfiler.com. If he takes his target numbers from the first two weeks and combines it with his snaps and routes from Week 3, he’ll be a breakout star in no time. I’m definitely not ready to drop and I may even throw out a few buy-low offers on him this week.
Buy Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton was a guy I loved coming into the season. That was mostly because I anticipated a major quarterback and offense upgrade. Instead, both Russell Wilson and the offensive unit as a whole had struggled through three weeks. However, they flashed at the end of that win over the Niners. Maybe it was a fluke but maybe they finally found something. Either way, they can’t continue to underperform this badly, right? With the expectation that this offense will find its groove eventually, I’m buying Sutton. He has had target shares of 35-percent and 30-percent over the last two weeks. At 6-3, 218-pounds, he is a red zone monster in waiting. The snaps, routes, and air yards have all been there, too. We’re just waiting on you, Russ.
Add KJ Osborn
Like Zay Jones earlier, KJ Osborn was a favorite late-round wide receiver this year. It was a quiet start, but Osborn exploded for five receptions (eight targets; 20% share) for 73 yards and the game-winning touchdown against the Lions. He has stand-alone value as a flex play in deeper PPR leagues with WR2/3 upside if anything happens to Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen.
Hold George Pickens
The Steelers offense is terrible. The quarterback situation is terrible. And with a ton of target competition on top of that, there’s a good chance George Pickens’ rookie season goes to waste. With that said, I’m holding if I can. Pickens is one of the most talented wideouts in what has already proven to be a loaded 2022 rookie class. In three weeks, Pickens has not had his snap share drop below 71-percent while his lowest route participation rate was 88-percent. He’s been on the field a ton. Then, in Week 3 he had his highest target share yet at 22-percent. We all saw that incredible catch he made on Thursday night football. He has everything he needs to explode if he can keep getting more opportunities.
Sell James Conner
You probably shouldn’t have drafted James Conner in the third round. This was a guy who benefited from a massive, unsustainable touchdown rate in 2021. Now, that touchdown rate is predictably gone and the entire offense, without DeAndre Hopkins and one of the worst offensive lines in the league, has regressed. And, shockingly (not really), he hasn’t taken on the Chase Edmonds role on top of his own either. In Week 3, Darrel Williams and Eno Benjamin combined for a 37.1-percent route participation rate to Conner’s 33.9-percent. Conner has also failed to reach a double-digit target share since Week 1. Things may improve to a degree, but he won’t get back to his 2021 form. Sell if you can get a good return.
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