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Week 2 of the NFL season had some high highs and low lows. The Dolphins had the highest combined score of three teammates in fantasy football history (probably), and Trey Lance put both of my home leagues and half of my best ball leagues in the trash can. Let’s regroup and get better for week 3. I’ll be putting my reputation on the line every week as I choose an entire fantasy team of lower-ranked players to score over a certain threshold of points, players that I trust. I’ll then choose another fantasy team of highly ranked players to score under a certain threshold of points, players that will bust. You’ll find a tally of my hits and misses throughout the season on each weekly article to make sure I’m holding myself accountable, and so all of you can call me bad names on Twitter.
Week 2 Results
- I’d like to do a little paragraph on each player on my week two trusts or busts list to give some context to their performance. First up and first in our hearts…Trey Lance is out for the season with a nasty ankle injury. I’m going to put it as a loss because those who put him in their lineups still got 2.5 points, but it’s impossible to predict injuries. Hopefully (for my dynasty teams) he’ll be at the rehab facility more than the strip club.
- Rhamondre Stevenson saw the usage we wanted with one less touch than Damien Harris and 15 more routes to end with a top-ten mark in route participation. This offense is just rough at the moment and Mac Jones only gave him two targets on all of those routes. With the new co-offensive coordinators it’s been a struggle, but hopefully it will continue to make progress throughout the season.
- James Robinson is the reason Etienne has had a rough start to the year. He doesn’t look as fast as early last year (which wasn’t his strength anyway) but his vision is unmatched and the Jaguars trust him. Etienne may have a couple of big games with his athleticism, but we’ll have no idea which games those will be.
- Allen Robinson had a touchdown in the first quarter but his usage is still concerning. He ran a route on 97 percent of dropbacks for the Rams but only received five targets. This is after a 100 percent route participation in Week 1 and two targets. This alarming trend has continued from last year, so he is probably a sell-high after a touchdown this week.
- I still believe Aiyuk would’ve had a big game with Trey Lance but he was passable with Garappolo and had elite usage. He ran a route on 92 percent of dropbacks and led the team in target share in week 2 at 33 percent. Aiyuk should be a buy low option as it’s only a matter of time before he starts finding the end zone.
- Tyler Higbee legitimately looks like this year’s Dalton Schultz as he’s being targeted at an elite rate (26 percent target share in week 2) and had four redzone targets. He’ll start turning those into touchdowns soon so I would buy low before this happens.
- Tom Brady and the Buccaneers’ offense looks discombobulated after so many injuries and his off the field issues. With the defense playing so well, it will be hard to rank Brady inside the top 10 until his full compliment of wide receivers return.
- This Steelers’ offense is just plain bad with Trubisky at the helm and Najee Harris suffering because of it. He at least had a solid 18 percent target share in week 2 but it’s going to be hard to find the end zone with his lack of explosiveness and the ineptitude around him.
- James Conner looks to have the usage that we want but the touchdowns have come down to earth and he’s already dealing with an ankle injury. He also is somewhat game-script dependent as most of his touches and scores come on the ground and the Cardinals have been playing from behind for both games.
- Cooper Rush looked better than I thought he would (which wasn’t a high bar) and Ceedee had the kind of usage we wanted coming into this year with a 33 percent target share. He’ll continue to be used heavily until Michael Gallup comes back, and even then should be started in all leagues.
- Diontae Johnson still had a good day while he was technically under my random threshold of 14 points. He’s easily the wide receiver to own on this team and he’ll continue to see a massive amount of targets, but the ceiling isn’t there with Trubisky as the QB.
- It’s officially Kyle Pitts bust season if you’re on Twitter, but I think this is a buy low opportunity. He ran a route on 91 percent of the Falcons’ dropbacks and this offense has been much more productive than we thought it would be. They’ve faced two tough defenses who took away they’re top option in Pitts, with Drake London as the beneficiary. The script will flip soon.
Week 2 Record: 7-5
Season Record: 15-9
Fantasy Trust Circle: Week 3
I must choose a quarterback outside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 3 rankings to score over 20 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
QB: Marcus Mariota (Week 3 Forecast: 240 Passing Yards, 50 Rushing Yards, 3 Touchdowns)
Mariota has quietly been the QB13 through two weeks and he’s facing a beatable Seahawks defense. This looks like the week Kyle Pitts will finally be unleashed in 2022 and Drake London looks like the real deal. The Seahawks should be able to put some points on the board so Mariota will need to keep his foot on the pedal the whole game.
I must choose two running backs outside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 3 rankings to score over 15 fantasy points in a PPR format.
RB: Tony Pollard (Week 3 Forecast: 60 Rushing Yards, 5 Receptions, 55 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
Pollard is getting used more than ever with 13 touches in week 2 and a goal-line score. Dallas wants undrafted free agent Dennis Houston to see the field the least amount possible (as do Cowboys’ fans), so Pollard in the slot is finally a thing. He should be the second-most important player in the offense until Michael Gallup gets fully healthy and the Giants’ defense can be exploited. PFF gives the Cowboys a 24 percent pass-blocking advantage and 19 percent run-blocking advantage.
RB: Damien Harris (Week 3 Forecast: 95 Rushing Yards, 2 Receptions, 15 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
The Baltimore defense has been ravaged by injuries, so the Patriots’ o-line should be able to dominate up front. They’re defense should be able to slow down Lamar Jackson enough to be in a close game. Harris is still seeing the most touches in this backfield, and the game script should be in his favor in this matchup.
I must choose two wide receivers outside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 3 rankings to score over 15 fantasy points in a PPR format.
WR: Tyler Lockett (Week 3 Forecast: 6 Receptions, 95 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
Geno Smith has actually looked pretty average this year, which is much better than he was given credit for going into week 1. Lockett was given as much as he could handle in week 2, finishing with 11 targets and 100 percent route participation. The Falcons have been stout against the run but are beatable through the air. AJ Terrell has given up three touchdowns through week 2 but is still a great cornerback. I see him lining up against D.K. Metcalf much more than Lockett as the latter has been in the slot almost 50 percent of the time.
WR: Darnell Mooney (Week 3 Forecast: 6 Receptions, 95 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
I know it’s been worse than ugly for Mooney through two weeks but better days are coming. His route participation has been elite but the Bears have been in funky weather both weeks and were stifled by a staunch Green Bay defense. This week 3 game will be very competitive and the Bears will undoubtedly throw the ball more than 11 times against the 5th worst defense according to PFF. Let’s hope they didn’t somehow piss off mother nature for every game this year though.
I must choose one tight end outside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 3 rankings to score over 10 fantasy points in a PPR format.
TE: Evan Engram (Week 3 Forecast: 6 Receptions, 65 Yards)
Engram has seen the usage we look for a tight end with 84 percent routes run per dropback in week 2 and received a hefty 27 percent target share. They’ll likely need to throw more than 30 times against the high-flying Chargers, and Engram looks at-worst like the 3rd option in this passing attack.
Fantasy Busts: Week 3
I must choose a quarterback inside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 3 rankings to score under 20 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
QB: Russell Wilson (Week 3 Forecast: 260 Passing Yards, 1 Touchdown, 1 Interceptions)
The Broncos have looked disorganized, to say the least, and Wilson has struggled to get anything going against two average-at-best defenses. This week he gets to go up against a top-3 defense in San Francisco and may be without one of his top weapons in Jerry Jeudy. The Nathaniel Hackett show so far looks like a farce.
I must choose two running backs inside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 3 rankings to score under 14 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
RB: Najee Harris (Week 3 Forecast: 40 Rushing Yards, 4 Receptions, 25 Receiving Yards)
The foot issue doesn’t look behind Harris as he looks slow and indecisive to go along with a below average run-blocking unit and an erratic quarterback. He has gone up against two of the top run defenses in the Bengals and Patriots, but he faces a top-8 unit according to PFF in the Browns this week. The way to attack Cleveland is through the air, so the only hope for Najee is to receive enough dump offs to PPR his way to a useable day.
RB: Javonte Williams (Week 3 Forecast: 55 Rushing Yards, 3 Receptions, 20 Receiving Yards)
This is going to be a slow-paced, low-scoring game that could limit touches for all of the important skill position players. San Francisco is going to run the ball to ease Jimmy Garappolo into starting duties and the Broncos weakness is the run defense. This is not the week for the Broncos’ offense to right the ship against a stingy 49ers defense.
I must choose two wide receivers inside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 3 rankings to score under 14 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
WR: Terry McLaurin (Week 3 Forecast: 4 Receptions, 60 Receiving Yards)
Wentz has been surprisingly good this year. He’s shown glimpses of his Jekyll and Hyde ways though, and I think he goes more of the Hyde route for this game. McLaurin is still the Commanders’ top receiver so he should see plenty of ‘Big Play’ Slay, one of the top corners in the NFL that just held Justin Jefferson to 48 yards. Philly has a top-4 coverage unit according to PFF and should bait Wentz into bad decisions.
WR: D.J. Moore (Week 3 Forecast: 4 Receptions, 55 Receiving Yards)
Moore was able to reach the end-zone last week but the Carolina offense has been just as bad as recent seasons. Mayfield doesn’t even look to be an upgrade on Sam Darnold, which is a scary thought for Pathers’ fans. The soft Giants’ defense just made Mayfield look like a bottom-5 quarterback, so how will he do against Marcus Lattimore and the Saints? He has 5 targets per game with a 1.25 yards per route run so far, and it should only get uglier this week.
I must choose one tight end inside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 3 rankings to score under 10 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
TE: Pat Freiermuth (Week 3 Forecast: 4 Receptions, 30 Receiving Yards)
It’s going to be an uphill battle for Trubisky and the Steelers to move the ball against the Browns’ defense. Until Pittsburgh can consistently run the ball to take pressure off him it will be as ugly as it was last week. As seen in my take on Najee above, that won’t happen this week. Also, Freiermuth will mostly be lined up against Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who is an elite coverage linebacker and much more athletic. Freiermuth was bailed out with a touchdown last game after recording just 22 receiving yards. Don’t expect that luck this week.
RANKINGS | WEEKLY | DYNASTY |
