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Week 3 Adds, Drops, Buys, and Sells
What a week! Week 2 was exhilarating but the turnaround is quick. Waivers are running and we have championship rosters to build. With that in mind, here are the adds, drops, buys, and sells to consider making in Week 3.
START/SIT ASSIST | TRADE CALCULATOR
Buy Chris Olave
Chris Olave is the ultimate buy at wide receiver this week. He’s still flying under the radar considering he’s scored 9.1 and 11.0 fantasy points over the first two weeks. While that’s nothing, it’s certainly not jumping off the page. But when we dig deeper, we can see that much bigger weeks are right around the corner. Olave has led the Saints wide receivers in snaps through two weeks and in Week 2, he had a 32-percent target share and ran a route on 85.1-percent of Jameis Winston’s drop backs. Most impressive, though, was his mind-blowing 334 air yards which accounted for 63.1-percent of the team share. To put that into context, the next closest in Week 2 was Jaylen Waddle’s 180. And according to Matt Kelley on Twitter, the most anyone hit in all of 2021 was 321. The usage is there for Olave even in the face of target competition from Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry. He can still be had at a very reasonable cost from your league-mates who aren’t digging beneath the surface. Go get him before he blows up.
Hold Travis Etienne
Travis Etienne has been one of the biggest disappointments to begin 2022. More accurately, James Robinson has been one of the biggest surprises. Either way, Etienne has not captured the role we thought he would. However, he’s still seeing valuable opportunities and there’s reason to believe more will come. Let’s remember, Week 1 and Week 2 were his first two NFL games. How often do we see rookie running backs come in and be “the guy” right out the gate? Not even Jonathan Taylor did that. Still, Etienne has had double-digit target shares in each of the first two weeks. In Week 2, he ran a route on close to half of Trevor Lawrence’s drop backs despite being heavily out-snapped by the veteran Robinson. While it’s unlikely we see Etienne in the full “Austin Ekeler role” that we were hoping for in the preseason, we can safely assume his opportunities will rise from here. He’ll be okay. After all, we expect the Jaguars to be playing from behind more than they’ve had to in the first two games. We’ll probably see Etienne more in those negative game scripts as the team opens up the passing game while in comeback mode.
Sell Damien Harris
Damien Harris looked good in the box score in Week 2, rushing for 71 yards and a touchdown while hauling in a pair of receptions. With Ty Montgomery hitting the IR earlier in the week, we wondered how the passing downs work would be divided in this backfield. Again, if you look at the box score, Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson were used similarly in that area. Both had a 6-percent target share and Harris even had one more reception and 12 more receiving yards than his backfield mate. However, digging deeper we can see that Stevenson actually out-snapped Harris 62-percent to 40-percent while running 23 routes (60.5-percent) to Harris’ nine (23.7-percent). Based on this and the reports we got out of training camps saying Stevenson was getting work in the “James White role,” we can assume Stevenson will dominate the backfield targets more often than not. Meanwhile, Harris will continue to be a touchdown-dependent plotter in a mediocre offense.
Add Ashton Dulin
Ashton Dulin had a 23% target share and ran a route on 71.4-percent of Matt Ryan’s drop backs in the absence of Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce. Dulin is a guy who had been trending up even before this opportunity. Then, he goes out and takes advantage with five receptions for 79 yards on seven targets. This was a dominant producer in college with exceptional athleticism across the board. It’s hard to imagine he won’t continue to have a role in this passing game even when Pittman and Pierce return.
Add Jordan Mason
Jordan Mason hasn’t taken an offensive snap in the NFL. But the undrafted rookie could be in line for some touches with both Elijah Mitchell and Tyrion Davis-Price out for an extended period. We know Jeff Wilson has battled injuries throughout his career so it could be only a matter of time before Mason is atop the depth chart. Stash him if you have the roster spot.
Add Sterling Shepard
Sterling Shepard is another one of these guys who have returned from an achilles injury to be productive. After playing limited snaps in Week 1 and still converting on two receptions (four targets) for 71 yards and a score, Shepard was back to a full-time role in Week 2. While it was only for 34 yards, Shepard caught six of his 10 targets while running a route on 90.7-percent of Daniel Jones’ drop backs. Kenny Golladay’s tenure in New York feels like it’s coming to an end and Kadarius Toney is never on the field. Shepard is back as the Giants WR1.
Sell Elijah Moore
Elijah Moore seems to have been leapfrogged by rookie first-round pick Garrett Wilson. While Moore is still edging the rookie in snaps and routes, Wilson has been getting the targets, red zone opportunities, and air yards of a true alpha. It sucks to sell low but it’s better than having to drop him in a few weeks if this continues.
Buy AJ Dillon
What? Aaron Jones just had a monster game while Dillon couldn’t even reach 10 fantasy points. I get it. But, Jones ran just three more routes than Dillon (18 to 15) while they both had the same number of targets. On top of that, their snap shares (59-percent Jones, 57-percent Dillon) were nearly identical and Dillon led the team in rush attempts. There are going to be Jones weeks and there are going to be Dillon weeks. If you can embrace the volatility and recognize the upside, Dillon is a nice buy low.
Sell Aaron Jones
For the same reasons, we can sell high on this Aaron Jones performance. He’s not in the role we hoped he’d be when we drafted him in the second round. We were banking on him being heavily involved as a receiver. While that may still come, Jones has eight targets through two weeks to Dillon’s nine. He’s in a complete 50-50 time share. He’ll get his, but if you can get that second-round value back in a trade right now, I’d do it.
Add Noah Brown
Noah Brown has had target shares of 21-percent and 16-percent to start the season. He’s worth an add if you need to stream the position. Just be aware that Michael Gallup is getting close to a return.
Add Garrett Wilson
He should’ve been picked up after Week 1, but if he’s still available, go get him. He had a 31-percent target share and was third in the NFL in air yards. But you could just look at the box score and see his eight receptions for 102 yards and two touchdowns to know he’s a must-add. This rookie wide receiver class is so good.
Drop Kenny Golladay
Kenny Golladay played just 3-percent of the snaps in Week 2. It looks like he’s complete toast.
Buy Drake London
Drake London is a buy high. He led all wide receivers across the NFL with a massive 46% target share in his second NFL game. That’s after commanding a solid 21% share in Week 1. He has turned those into 13 receptions for 160 yards and a score over his first two weeks. This is a guy we loved coming out of USC and knew he’d have big upside as a rookie with no target competition outside of tight end Kyle Pitts. Now it’s happening. The Falcons are a bad team so they’ll be playing from behind almost every week so London should continue to get plenty of opportunities. He’s a star in the making.
Buy Josh Jacobs
We weren’t drafting Josh Jacobs because we weren’t convinced he’d be a true workhorse. Well, as it turns out, he’s the workhorse. In an offense that will continue to score a bunch of points, Jacobs is going to get plenty of red zone and goal line touches. He hasn’t scored yet, so he should be easily attainable. If you’re in need of an RB2 with touchdown upside and volume carries, Jacobs is your guy.
Buy/Hold Cam Akers
Cam Akers was in the dog house in Week 1. His usage against the Bills (or lack thereof), wasn’t about the achilles or his ability, and certainly not the ability of Darrell Henderson, but something else. What exactly? I’m not sure, but it could have been a combination of a number of things. Either way, Akers snuck out of the dog house for a minute to play 44-percent of the snaps. Akers was the preferred back in the passing game, running eight routes (21.6%) and seeing 8-percent of the targets while Darrell Henderson ran zero routes and was not targeted. While it’s still far from what we projected coming into the season, Akers’ Week 2 performance was a step in the right direction. Hopefully they’ll loosen the leash a bit more every week while he earns back the trust of the coaches. He’s probably best left on your bench for now, but it’s only a matter of time until he’s back in your lineups.
Buy Allen Lazard
We talked about Allen Lazard in the summer as a guy who could score double-digit touchdowns. The passing game was a disaster in Week 1 while he sat out with an ankle issue. Upon his return in Week 2, Lazard played 81-percent of the snaps, ran a route on 89.7-percent of Aaron Rodgers’ drop backs, and scored his first touchdown of the season.
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