Bestball Quick Hits: Uncorrelated Stacking
Data in this edition is from FantasyEvaluator.com and Rotoviz.
As bestball season continues to ramp up, one of the main components that drafters will need to consider is stacking. Those who are familiar with DFS have a solid understanding of stacking and the importance of correlation. But DFS and season-long bestball are two completely different games, so we shouldn’t just try and replicate the same types of stacks just because they’re optimal in DFS.
2021 Best Ball Rankings
In DFS, we are trying to capture player correlations in our lineups to maximize upside when a given event occurs, and lower the number of things we need to “get right” in order for all of the players in the lineup to hit. This most commonly means stacking the passing game of an offense, since we can accumulate points from both the QB and the pass catcher. Running backs, particularly those who aren’t very involved in the passing game, are usually omitted from stacks for good reason: they often correlate negatively with their QB and other pass catchers in a given game.
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Of course, passing game stacks are still great in bestball as well, but when it comes to running backs, we don’t really need to worry about the negative correlation they may have with theirteammates. While in a one game sample like in DFS, there are only a handful of touchdowns and big plays to go around, so it’s very unlikely someone like Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill go off in the same game. But over the course of a full season, these in-game effects are mitigated. What matters in bestball is how well the offense as a whole is performing (this determines the net scoring potential for all of the players), and whether the players are receiving enough opportunity based on their cost.
To illustrate how weekly correlation doesn’t translate similarly to bestball, here are some examples of QB-RB pairings from 2020 with their weekly correlations (via FantasyEvaluator.com using FanDuel scoring) and bestball win rates when stacking the two on a team (via Rotoviz’s Best Ball Win Rates app). For reference, the average win rate in a 12-team league is 8.3%.
Takeaways
We don’t need to think about stacking in bestball the same way we would in DFS (except for formats with playoff weeks). Focus on offenses you think will exceed expectations and don’t be afraid to get pieces of both the pass and run game; high scoring offenses provide sufficient scoring opportunity for both over the course of a whole season.
In tournament formats such as the Drafters Early NFL Bestball Championship where there are no one-week playoff rounds, QB-RB and RB-WR stacks are good ways to create more unique lineups compared to more traditional QB-WR stacks. I’d also consider adding a late round running back to a passing game stack since they may only need a handful of goal line carries to pay off for you, which they’re more likely to see if that offense produces at a high level.
Here are some off-the-radar QB-RB stacks I’m interested in in early drafts, where I think most drafters are only going to mainly stack the QB with pass catching weapons:
