Bestball Quick Hits: Will Justin Herbert See A Second Year Leap or Sophomore Slump?
Justin Herbert
ADP: 66.5 (QB6)
Justin Herbert was an absolute phenom in his rookie season for the Chargers. He took over as the starting quarterback in Week 2 and never looked back, putting up a whopping 378.2 fantasy points and ended the season as the QB9 in fantasy. He demonstrated a great bestball ceiling with eight games over 25 points. Herbert truly put up an all-time fantasy rookie season, amajor positive indicator for his career and making him an excellent dynasty investment, but the enthusiasm for his 2021 campaign in bestball may be too optimistic. Currently being drafted immediately after the elite tier of quarterbacks on Underdog at an ADP of 66.5 (mid-sixth round), I’m regrettably here to burst the hype bubble.
Before last season, there were 7 rookie QBs since 2000 to score over 300 fantasy points:
|
Player |
Season |
Fantasy Points |
Pass Attempts
|
paFPOE |
Rush Attempts |
ruFPOE |
|
Cam Newton |
2011 |
414.85 |
517 |
16.5
|
126 |
38.1 |
|
Justin Herbert |
2020 |
378.2 |
595 |
47 |
55 |
-1.6 |
|
Robert Griffin III |
2012 |
365 |
394 |
50.3 |
120 |
51.3 |
|
Dak Prescott |
2016 |
330.95 |
460 |
47.6 |
58 |
24.3 |
|
Andrew Luck |
2012 |
330.2 |
627 |
-9.7 |
62 |
13.9 |
|
Kyler Murray |
2019 |
326.5 |
542 |
-12.9 |
93 |
29.1 |
|
JameisWinston |
2015 |
319.65 |
535 |
-0.4 |
54 |
19.1 |
|
Russell Wilson |
2012 |
312.5 |
392 |
52.3 |
94 |
28.6 |
Four of the seven QBs had very efficient passing seasons (positive paFPOE, or passing fantasy points over expectation) in their rookie year, just like Herbert (+47). Winston was exactly as efficient as his his workload suggested (-0.4 paFPOE). Murray (-12.9) and Luck (-9.7) actually scored less points than expected in the passing game, and their fantasy point totals were buoyed by rushing production and passing volume respectively.
|
Player |
N+1 Season |
N+1 Fantasy Points |
N+1 Pass Attempts |
N+1 paFPOE |
N+1 Rush Attempts |
N+1 ruFPOE |
|
Cam Newton |
2012 |
373.25 |
485 |
19.6 |
128 |
28.3 |
|
Robert Griffin III |
2013 |
253.05 |
456 |
-15 |
86 |
5 |
|
Dak Prescott |
2017 |
299.05 |
489 |
-0.4 |
57 |
29.5 |
|
Andrew Luck |
2013 |
334.8 |
570 |
3.5 |
63 |
20.8 |
|
Kyler Murray |
2020 |
426.25 |
558 |
14.4 |
133 |
55 |
|
JameisWinston |
2016 |
308.9 |
569 |
22.9 |
52 |
-3.4 |
|
Russell Wilson |
2013 |
313.35 |
408 |
57.7 |
96 |
7.3 |
Looking at Year 2 production for these seven QBs, only three of them improved on their rookie fantasy production. Murray and Luck saw their passing performance regress to a positive paFPOE en route to their higher point totals of 334.8 and 426.25 respectively. The other who improved was Russell Wilson, who scored a mere 0.85 points more in Year 2. Wilson backed up his rookie all-time high 52.3 paFPOE with an even better mark of 57.7 in his second season. Much has been made of Wilson’s unique tendency to maintain elite efficiency year over year. Healways shows up as an outlier in metrics like these, and should not impact our expectations for other quarterbacks.
Newton, RG3, Prescott and Winston all scored less points in their second season, with an average decrease of over 38, which is more than 3 fantasy points per game.
As awesome as Herbert was as a rookie, the same can be said about this whole group of quarterbacks, so we know that significant regression is well within his range of outcomes. Herbert looks a lot more like the quarterbacks whose production dropped off (he greatly overachieved as a passer and his FPOE is bound to regress), than he does the ones who improved their production (underachieving mobile QBs with room to grow in passing efficiency, plus Russ the unicorn).
On top of the efficiency, his passing volume is likely to come back down to earth. His 39.67 pass attempts per game a rookie was the second highest mark since 2000 (Joe Burrow set the record with 40.4). Every other quarterback in the past two decades to average over 35 pass attempts (minimum of 6 games played) saw a decrease in year 2, with an average of 4.59 less per game. Thats a 16 game pace of 73 fewer attempts.
The three quarterbacks going within one round ahead of Herbert are Kyler Murray (54.8), Dak Prescott (55) and Lamar Jackson (58.7). These three have all demonstrated a sustainable ceiling across multiple seasons, and in the case of Murray and Jackson, you can make the case that their fantasy production frok last year can take a step forward in 2021. Herbert does have some rushing element to his game, but he doesn’t have the dual-threat tool set to justify being drafted in the same range as these quarterbacks, especially when his passing numbers are looking likely to come down a bit.
In recent years, the evolution of the quarterback position has demonstrated the value that elite fantasy quarterbacks hold. However, in the case of Herbert, it appears that drafters are chasing that elite QB upside if they miss out on the top five options. Rather than reaching on Herbert in a range only feasible for elite QB options, it would be more prudent to focus on building depth at other positions, and look for quarterback value later in the draft. My top exposures currently include Matt Ryan, Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield and Tom Brady, who are all better targets than Herbert at their ADP.
Los Angeles Chargers Team Profile
