2026 NFL Week 10 Best Bets
2026 NFL Week 10 Best Bets
We are officially on the back nine of the NFL season. The trade deadline is officially in the rearview. Some teams decided to put their chips in the middle, while others folded and are on to next year. Six of the 15 games this week feature a divisional matchup, and the finale of the international games for the regular season kicks off Sunday morning. Here are my favorite week 10 NFL bets.
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Week 9: 2-2 (-0.22 units)
YTD: 13-15 (-3.80 units)
Minnesota Vikings (6-2) vs. Green Bay Packers (6-3)
Green Bay -3; O/U 41.5
Minnesota +3 (-115)
Last week, favorites went 12-3 ATS and won all but one game outright. The Commanders won as a slight underdog on Thursday, and I believe that could be a theme this week – underdogs bouncing back.
Minnesota traded for Kirk Cousins and seems to have rejuvenated a team that was the last unbeaten, before losing their last two. Since Brian Flores took over as defensive coordinator, the Vikings surrender 20.5 PPG against divisional opponents. But when the game is played outdoors, as they will Sunday (i.e.: at Green Bay or Chicago), the defensive scoring has improved to 18.4 PPG. Minnesota is also 6-1 in those games. I think Minnesota gets back in the win column with the return of Kirk Cousins.
Houston Texans (3-5) vs. Cleveland Browns (5-4)
Cleveland +4.5; O/U 40.5
Cleveland +4.5 (-105)
A revenge spot, as Deshaun Watson welcomes his old team into Cleveland. I was a little surprised by this number, as two of Houston’s three wins have come against the winless Chargers and the 1-7 Titans. The defense was expected to be the anchor of this Houston team, but they have allowed 26.7 PPG in their last three contests. Luckily, CJ Stroud has found his groove to replicate the success of his rookie season. Now they travel from Los Angeles across the country to play at Cleveland this week. Cleveland is 3-0 at home, winning all three as a home underdog. I’m on the Browns to stay within the number this week.
Los Angeles Rams (5-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (3-6)
Arizona +9.5; O/U 39.5
Arizona: Team Total Under 14.5 (-115)
I’ve bet on Arizona plenty this year, especially as an underdog. But this state of the Cardinals absolutely reeks.
Arizona is now turning to Carson Beck as their 3rd starting quarterback in as many weeks. His first game comes against a Rams team that finally has Myles Garrett back, paired with Aaron Donald. The Rams have held opponents under two touchdowns in each of their last two. Not to mention, the offensive weapons for Arizona are all injured or have been traded away. Rookie first round pick Jeremiyah Love is on IR, along with Michael Wilson. Marvin Harrison Jr, while not living up to the hype entering the NFL Draft, was shipped off to Houston. Trey McBride and backup Tyler Allgeier are the best options for Beck. Outside of those two, the remaining options are Simi Fehoko, Devin Duvernay, and rookies Reggie Virgil and Harrison Wallace III. Best of luck, Mr. Beck. I’m on their team total under.
Seattle Seahawks (5-4) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (4-5)
Las Vegas +6.5; O/U 40.5
Las Vegas +6.5 (-108)
Over 40.5 (-112)
The Raiders began the year 3-0, but have taken a nose dive since, losing five of their last six. The defense has been brutal, allowing 35.7 PPG in that span, with each opponent scoring at least 30 points. And while Seattle will be without Sam Darnold, backup Drew Lock has been serviceable in his two starts against the Cardinals this year. He will also welcome another week with the running back room getting healthier as Zach Charbonnet will make his third start of the year. Rookie running mate, Jadarian Price, will also be in his third game since returning from the IR. Add in Jaxson Smith-Njigba as one of the top receivers in the league, this offense has plenty of firepower entering Sin City.
On the other side of the ball, Las Vegas shipped off Kirk Cousins to his old team at the trade deadline, leaving 1st overall pick, Fernando Mendoza, time this week to prepare as the starter. I touched last week on the impact Klint Kubiak has had on this Raiders’ offense. And what better test to show off the new future of the Raiders’ franchise against a defense – while great – that he knows better than anyone. I think the Raiders keep this one close, as the game eclipses the total.
Week 9 Teaser Parlay: 1-0 (+1.85 units)
YTD Teaser Parlay: 3-2 (+3.23 units)
Week 9 Teaser Parlay (1 unit): +206
Minnesota +9.5
Cleveland +10.5
Arizona: Team Total Under 20.5
Seattle/Las Vegas: Over 34.5
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 9: 0-1 (-0.50 units)
YTD: 3-6-1 (-0.90 units)
New England vs. Detroit +124
We will head over to Spain for the last international game of the 2026. Listen, New England looked pathetic against Green Bay last week. They could not tackle, receivers were wide open, and Jordan Love looked like peak Tom Brady against a JV team. But you’re never as bad as your last game, and this feels like an overreaction. I think the Patriots bounce back and pick up a win before their bye.
Minnesota @ Green Bay +124
I touched on this game above, and am on Minnesota taking this one outright.
Cleveland vs. Houston +195
I like the points with Cleveland, and like them on the moneyline as well.
What are some of your favorite Week 10 NFL best bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ on X for more football content!
