2026 College Football Playoff Landscape – Post Week 10
2026 College Football Playoff Landscape
Post Week 10
Week 10 was hyped as one of the most loaded in recent college football history. It delivered, and shook the landscape across all conferences. Some teams cemented their place in the playoffs. Others picked up a resume boosting win, while others suffered losses that make their postseason future murky. Here are the new updated College Football Playoff rankings after Week 10.
With these in mind, how does the rest of the season play out for those ranked teams? Let’s take a look at each conference and see who is still alive for the 2026 College Football Playoff field after week 10.
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2026 College Football Playoff Rule Changes
There was not much change from the 2025 College Football Playoff rules to this year. The main exception relates to the automatic qualifiers. Last year, the five highest ranked conference champions made the playoffs. This resulted in both Tulane and James Madison getting in the field from the Group of Six, rather than ACC Champion, Duke.
Now, the conference champion from the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC will automatically be in the field. Meaning: last year would have Duke, Texas Tech, Indiana, and Georgia automatically in the field, and leaving James Madison out of the field.
There is also the Notre Dame rule for this year: if the Fighting Irish are ranked in the top-12, they automatically are in the field. Using the rankings from last year, even though Notre Dame was ranked #11 behind #10 Miami – and lost to them head-to-head – Notre Dame will leapfrog the Hurricanes and be in the field. It will be interesting to see how the committee handles the Fighting Irish this year.
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ACC
Likely Scenario: 1 team
Best Case Scenario: 2 teams
In the Playoffs:
#7 Miami (FL) (8-1)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 4th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 3rd
Sagarin: 5th
Miami suffered their first loss of the year last week, when they traveled up to South Bend. They found themselves down 24-3 before fighting back, to ultimately lose 31-24 to the Irish. They did lose Malachi Toney in the week leadup to the game, and he will miss some time. It is a surprise of how much Miami dropped in the poll, going from 1st to 7th, despite losing by seven on the road to a ranked team. Still, Miami closes the year with three home games they will be favored by multiple scores. Handle business – especially this week against your toughest test in Duke – and you likely find yourself as a top-4 seed.
Still Alive Teams:
#13 Wake Forest (8-1)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 13th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 12th
Sagarin: 15th
Wake Forest had their FCS game this week, dismantling Merrimack 77-0. After They benefitted from SMU rolling Virginia Tech last week, entering their matchup this week at 7-2. A road win in Dallas would be a nice win on the resume for Wake Forest. Winning out and finishing at 11-1 would mean the Demon Deacons have a win at SMU, at Louisville, and hosting Duke. That could be enough for an at-large, depending on how the second tier teams fair in the SEC.
The ACC is hoping for a rematch of Miami and Wake Forest in Charlotte. Two 11-1 teams, given the chaos happening around the rest of the country, could land the ACC two bids.
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#5 Notre Dame (8-1)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 1st
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 2nd
Sagarin: 3rd
Unlike last year, Notre Dame has their signature win. It did get dicey against Miami, but ultimately, they pulled out the win. You have a game against Boston College this week, where they are a near 30-point favorite. Still, there is no room for the Irish to trip. Anything less than 11-1 has a real chance of missing the playoffs. The good news for them, is they should win their remaining games with ease.
Big 12
Likely Scenario: 2 team
Best Case Scenario: 3 team
In the Playoff Teams:
#2 Utah (9-0)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 10th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 9th
Sagarin: 11th
Utah hosted their in-state rival and came out victorious. Now, they have two wins over the four next best teams in the Big 12 in Houston and BYU. But the Utes cannot get complacent – their next biggest came comes this week, as they travel to Tucson to take on Arizona. A win here cements you into the Big 12 Championship game. But more importantly, it could make you an at-large team, even if you have a letup along the way.
#10 BYU (7-2)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 17th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 17th
Sagarin: 23rd
BYU was handed their second loss of the year, and second over the last three weeks. There is still hope for the Cougars, as the teams ranked 10th, 12th, and 14th ranked teams all lost last week as well. Not to mention, the win over Notre Dame aged better. The result? Still being in the top-10.
The only issue now is they no longer control their destiny to reach the Big 12 Championship. They are firmly in a cluster in the 2-6 teams in the Big 12. You must win out and ask for a little help. But this initial ranking is a much better sign for the Cougars, as they were the first team out last year.
Still Alive Teams:
#12 Texas Tech (8-1)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 14th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 13th
Sagarin: 22nd
Red Raider fans had a stressful weekend, as Texas Tech rallied in the 4th quarter to complete their 53-48 comeback victory over West Virginia. Their next two will not be easy, as they are on the road against two 4-2 teams in conference play: newly ranked Oklahoma State and Baylor. Texas Tech controls their own destiny – winning out secures a spot in the Big 12 Championship. But any slipup could ruin their playoff hopes.
#14 Houston (7-2)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 20th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 25th
Sagarin: 25th
A score with 5-minutes remaining helped Houston avoid an upset to Cincinnati. Still, there is a ways to climb for the Cougars. Luckily for Houston, their next two road games are against teams with a losing record in conference play. Their last home game will come against Baylor. The Cougars will pull heavily for Oklahoma State this week, along with Baylor next week, as both will host Texas Tech. If Tech loses both, and Houston wins out, the Cougars are in the Big 12 Championship. Otherwise, I’m not sure if there is enough to get them to Dallas.
#23 Arizona (7-2)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 26th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 21st
Sagarin: 29th
Arizona survived a thriller against TCU. Unfortunately, the Wildcats will need plenty of chaos to even make the Big 12 Championship game. We will keep them here for this week, but despite their ranking, I don’t see a path for Arizona to make the playoffs.
#25 Oklahoma State (6-3)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 20th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 20th
Sagarin: 21st
Welcome to the poll, Oklahoma State! That dreaded loss to Tulsa in the opener destroyed their hopes to make the playoffs, but that has not stopped their dynamic offense in Big 12 play. The Cowboys are averaging 47.8 PPG in conference play, and get to showcase those fireworks in Lubbock against Texas Tech this week. No team has come from further back than 18th in the initial playoff rankings to make the 12-team field. Like Arizona, I don’t think there is much hope for the Cowboys to make the playoffs this year.
The Big 12 benefitted from others across the country losing. Despite BYU’s loss to Utah, they are still in the top-10 and have two teams in the current field. With Texas Tech at 12, they are one slipup from Kentucky, Indiana, or Tennessee from having three in the field.
Big Ten
Likely Scenario: 2 teams
Best Case Scenario: 3 teams
In the Playoff Teams:
#4 UCLA (9-0)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 27th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 11th
Sagarin: 14th
UCLA continues their perfect season, being one of the last two who can say they are 9-0. The metrics do not like the Bruins, but if they continue to win, they have no choice but to continue to climb in the rankings. They host Illinois this week on Friday night, where they are currently a 10-point favorite. A road game against Michigan looks much more manageable after their loss to Michigan State last week. Finally, they stay at home where they play their crosstown rival USC. A perfect season is on the table for UCLA, leading to a trip to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship game. But more importantly, a playoff berth.
#9 Indiana (8-1)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 8th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 5th
Sagarin: 10th
Indiana had their bye last week, being able to watch all the chaos across college football from the comfort of their own homes. Their biggest test of the remaining three games comes this weekend, when they host a ranked USC team that still has a chance at the playoffs. The Hoosiers control their own destiny to the Big Ten Championship game. One slipup has Indiana likely out of the championship game, and questionable to make the playoffs as a whole. But if they win out, they are firmly in the mix for a first-round bye.
Still Alive Teams:
#15 Iowa (7-2)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 18th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 16th
Sagarin: 13th
Iowa benefitted from playing Northwestern’s backup last week, but still managed to win by two scores. The Hawkeyes lack a signature win, and the loss to Minnesota will likely come back to bite them. But 10-2 is firmly on the table, and will have them close to the top-11 and one of the last at-large bids.
#16 Oregon (6-3)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 9th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 15th
Sagarin: 8th
Don’t look now, but that Oregon team everyone wrote off after their loss to Illinois just secured a big road win against Ohio State to keep their playoff hopes alive. The computers love the Ducks, despite their three losses. And their remaining schedule is favorable. The biggest question for Oregon now is if Indiana suffers another loss. If so, they can play their way to Indianapolis for a spot in the Big Ten Championship game. But even if they don’t, there could be enough chaos that a 9-3 Oregon team is one of the last at-large teams.
#18 USC (7-2)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 16th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 19th
Sagarin: 17th
USC comes off their bye week, as they travel to Bloomington to take on ranked Indiana. USC could control their own destiny, as winning out for the Trojans means they would have knocked off a ranked Indiana team on the road and a UCLA team, technically on a neutral. Even if Ohio State and Oregon were to win out, in this scenario, USC could control the tiebreakers due to a higher conference opponent win percentage. This would likely lead to a rematch of the two Los Angeles schools playing in Indianapolis.
#20 Ohio State (6-3)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 5th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 4th
Sagarin: 7th
The loss of Julian Sayin ruined Ohio State’s season, and any hopes of a national championship. The committee showed in the initial rankings how much they valued his absence, and unfortunately for the Buckeyes, they were proven correct after their loss to Oregon at home. Their schedule appears manageable the rest of the way, but from what we have seen from backup Luke Fahey, it could be a long three weeks for the Buckeyes.
Three teams is still the goal for the Big Ten. UCLA and Indiana appear to be the safe bets, but can one of Iowa, Oregon, or USC sneak into the field? I would bet on Oregon or Iowa to be that third team, but they will need help from the SEC. Otherwise, it could be just two teams representing the Big Ten this year.
SEC
Likely Scenario: 4 teams
Best Case Scenario: 5 teams
In the Playoff Teams
#1 Georgia (8-1)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 2nd
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 1st
Sagarin: 1st
It baffles me how Georgia lost to Auburn at home. The Bulldogs had their way with Ole Miss last week in Oxford, and had a signature win when they traveled to Alabama earlier in the year. They still have two ranked games remaining in conference play – versus Missouri and at South Carolina – before hosting Georgia Tech. But the brunt of their schedule is behind them, and barring some uncharacteristic collapse, Georgia will be in the SEC Championship game, and likely a top-4 team in the playoffs.
#3 Alabama (7-2)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 3rd
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 8th
Sagarin: 2nd
Alabama went on the road and beat another ranked SEC team in LSU handedly last week, 31-13. The rest of schedule is the easiest among SEC teams – at Vanderbilt, hosting Chattanooga, and hosting Auburn. Anything less than 10-2 would be a surprise. The Crimson Tide could have a rematch against Georgia in the SEC Championship game, depending on what happens with the next two teams over the next few weeks.
#6 Texas (7-2)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 6th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 6th
Sagarin: 4th
Texas went on the road and handled business against Missouri, winning 34-20. While 9-3 will likely get the Longhorns into the playoffs, a win this week at LSU will nearly guarantee Texas is a playoff team, and have them competing for a top-4 seed. Still, there is work to be done for the Longhorns. But they have positioned themselves as one of the safer teams to make the college football playoffs.
#8 Tennessee (7-2)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 11th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 10th
Sagarin: 9th
Tennessee pulled away from Kentucky late, defeating the Wildcats 34-6 in Knoxville. The win over Alabama looms large now, as that is two signature wins for the Volunteers. And more importantly, it has Tennessee tied with the Crimson Tide in the loss column in conference play. If they can manage to survive their road games at Texas A&M and at Vanderbilt, along with winning their home game against LSU, Tennessee will be 10-2. Tiebreakers will determine who meets Georgia in the game. But Tennessee is sitting pretty after this ranking.
#11 Kentucky (7-2)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 35th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 41st
Sagarin: 24th
Kentucky had their first true test in nearly a month, and did not live up to the expectation. They were annihilated by Tennessee last week. We knew the remaining schedule was difficult for Kentucky, and they still have work to do. Hosting Florida, at Missouri, and hosting Louisville is the remaining schedule for Kentucky. Based on the computer rankings, I’m not sure a 9-3 Kentucky team makes it to the playoffs. Winning out is likely the only way Kentucky makes the playoff.
Still Alive Teams
#17 South Carolina (6-3)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 19th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 28th
Sagarin: 16th
South Carolina survived against Texas A&M last week. They have just two games remaining in SEC play before traveling to Clemson. But one of those games is against Georgia. You cannot overlook a trip to Fayetteville this weekend. If you win out, you have finish 9-3. But blowing a 10-point lead at halftime against Kentucky at home is likely what did the Gamecocks in this year on their hopes to make the playoffs.
#19 Ole Miss (6-3)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 12th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 30th
Sagarin: 12th
Ole Miss had a huge opportunity last week, but squandered it against Georgia. Now, an Ole Miss team that was on the right side of the playoff rankings is on the outside looking in. And to make matters worse for the Rebels, they go to Norman this week to play a lively Oklahoma team. But, if Ole Miss can survive their road game this week, they will likely finish 9-3. The remaining schedule is hosting FCS Wofford and a Mississippi State team that is winless without Kamario Taylor. The Rebels are firmly alive as a three-loss SEC team to make the playoffs.
#21 LSU (6-3)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 7th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 7th
Sagarin: 6th
LSU’s expensive roster and expensive buyout of former Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin has not led to wins. Their is no signature win on their resume to date, with their best win coming on the road at Auburn. Their three wins in SEC play come against teams with a combined 6-11 record, if you remove the loss to LSU. Still, there are opportunities for the Tigers. But you have to win this week as you host Texas, and travel to Knoxville the following week. Anything other than 9-3 will keep you out of the playoffs, and a failure of a season.
#22 Missouri (6-3)
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): 25th
Bill Connelly’s SP+: 29th
Sagarin: 19th
Missouri had an opportunity against Texas last week, but turned the ball over late. Now, they find themselves as another three-loss SEC team with no signature win (sorry, that 45-17 over Florida has not aged well). Your playoff hopes are on life support, as you travel to Athens to take on a Georgia team that appears to be the best team in the country. But, hey, the Bulldogs have lost at home in conference play already this year. Who says it cannot happen again?
The next few weeks will see SEC teams fall off week by week. Florida was the latest team to fall, leaving nine teams with a chance to finish 9-3 or better. South Carolina, Ole Miss, LSU, and Missouri are all on life support and cannot afford another loss.
Group of Six
UTSA’s loss last week makes the Group of Six down to two teams: #24 Boise State (-160) and New Mexico (+160). Boise State’s only blemish is a seven-point loss at Oregon to start the year. I said last week that their last true test was against Oregon State this week. But Oregon State has struggled lately and finds themselves at 5-4. Their path to the playoffs has gotten significantly easier.
New Mexico continues to roll and finds themselves ranked 23rd in the AP Poll, the second time in school history. They do still have plenty of tests remaining, as their last three come against teams in contention for a Mountain West Championship game. Going undefeated in conference play will be much more difficult than Boise State’s path, and could lead to a discussion who deserves the Group of Six bid more.
Who do you see making the 2026 College Football Playoff? Let me know on X!
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