2026 Week 10 College Football Best Bets

2026 Week 10 College Football Best Bets

The calendar flips to November. The clocks rolled back. MACtion began this week. And, ahead of the biggest week of the college football season, we finally have our first look of the first College Football Playoff Rankings.

Boy, these rankings got people up in arms. But the beauty of this rankings? They will mean little to nothing in about a month. Seven ranked matchups will take up a weekend that will have ramifications over the next few weeks. Teams can increase their playoff chances, while others will see there’s crumble. Here are my 2026 week 10 college football best bets.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of November 4th. Please gamble responsibly and within your means. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Week 9: 4-3 (+0.58 Units)

YTD: 24-18 (+3.60 Units)

More: How to Build Your Own Football Projections for 2026: A Guide

#7 Texas (6-2) vs. #18 Missouri (6-2)

Missouri +2.5; O/U 42.5

Over 42.5 (-115)

2023 was the big break for Missouri under head coach Eli Drinkwitz. Since then, Missouri has hosted seven ranked opponents; they average 31.1 PPG in that span. In the five against SEC teams, their average actually bumps to 32.2 PPG. While not all against ranked opponents, this will be the 8th game where Missouri is a home underdog. The over has cashed in six of the previous seven. In the five road starts in conference play for Texas with Arch Manning starting, Texas averages 22.2 PPG. Lastly, the SEC has 10 teams ranked in the initial playoff rankings. This year, when a matchup sees two of these ranked teams against each other, the over/under is split at 8-8, but the game total averages 54 PPG. I think this gets higher scoring and the over cashes.

#8 UCLA (8-0) vs. Minnesota (5-3)

Minnesota +5.5; O/U 39.5

Under 39.5 (-120)

A 9 AM local kickoff for the Bruins, where kickoff will be in the mid-40s. UCLA’s first conference game this year saw them beat Purdue, 52-38. Since then, in the four conference games, the Bruins have allowed just 35 points, 8.75 PPG. Michigan State is the only team in that four game stretch that completed more than 50% of their attempts, but they did so while accumulating just 4.5 YPA. Since the start of last year, when Minnesota is a home underdog, the under has cashed in all five games. I think this one gives a classic Big Ten West feel, with it being low scoring.

More: 7 Dark Horse Teams to Make 2026 College Football Playoff

Oklahoma State (5-3) vs. Kansas State (4-4)

Kansas State +6.5; O/U 62.5

Oklahoma State: Team Total Over 34.5 (-115)

The loss to Iowa State last week ruined any chance for the Cowboys to make the Big 12 Championship game, let alone the College Football Playoff. But Eric Morris’s group, especially on offense, does have something else to play for: keeping quarterback Drew Mestemaker’s draft stock near the top. On College Gameday last weekend, ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported the change in NFL General Manager’s opinion of Mestemaker’s draft stock, naming him the best quarterback prospect in this class.

In six games against Power Four teams this year, Oklahoma State has eclipsed 35 points in five. The lone game they fell below the total came in a road game against Houston, who held the ball for 35 minutes in that game. Kansas State will be without starting quarterback Avery Johnson. I think Oklahoma State will have plenty of chances to put up points on the scoreboard, and will play their team total over in this one.

More: 2026 College Football Futures

#23 Oregon (5-3) vs. #12 Ohio State (6-2)

Ohio State -7.5; O/U 46.5

Under 46.5 (-110)

Since joining the Big Ten in 2024, Oregon has traveled east eight times. The game total averages 44 PPG. Raiola’s lone start on the road in an Oregon uniform this year saw the Ducks score just 10 points against Illinois, the same Illini team that has allowed 30 PPG in their four other Big Ten games. Off the bye, Luke Fahey and Ohio State averaged 5.71 YPP and 1.64 points per drive against USC. He does get a chance to come home, but how much of a jump should we see in this offense against a much better Oregon defense? Lastly, while ranked matchups in the SEC average 54 PPG, the average in ranked Big Ten matchups is just 45.5 PPG, with the under cashing in four of five. I think this battle of backups will make it five of six.

Air Force (6-2) vs. Army (5-3)

Army -3.5; O/U 45.5

Under 45.5 (-110)

We hit on this in Week 5. The second of three service academy matchups takes place this year. In 39 matchups for Air Force against Army and Navy, the average game total is 40.3 PPG. In the last 11 matchups, the average game total is 31.1 PPG, with just one clearing this total. It’s a classic to set your watch to: service academy teams running the triple option and the clock constantly running. It feels like we are good for at least one drive that takes half a quarter and results in three points. I’ll take the under in this one.

Outright Underdogs (.5 units)

Week 9: 1-2 (+0.00 Units)

YTD: 5-18 (-3.33 Units)

(Friday) Illinois vs. Nebraska +164

Nebraska is just 5-11 on the road since Matt Rhule arrive in Lincoln, albeit they are 3-2 as road favorites. They are also 5-14 in one score Big Ten games in that span. I cannot trust the Cornhuskers on the road. Not to mention Katin Houser is back under center. Give me the Illini, who have won four of their last six as a home dog.

Minnesota vs. #8 UCLA +170

I touched on this one above, as I’m on the under. The Golden Gophers are 4-1 as a home underdog since the start of last year, with the lone loss coming against Mississippi State when Kamario Taylor was healthy. UCLA’s offense with backup Ty Dieffenbach is no where near that dynamic. I think Minnesota hands the Bruins their first loss of the year.

#18 Missouri vs. #7 Texas +120

So you’re saying there’s a chance? Missouri is 4-3 as a home underdog since 2023. Arch Manning has five interceptions in his five SEC games. Texas is (-5) in turnover margin in SEC play, while only forcing four. Missouri in SEC play? +5 in the turnover margin, and Austin Simmons has just two interceptions. If Missouri can continue to keep Simmons clean (six sacks in five SEC games), I believe Missouri pulls the upset.

#23 Oregon @ #12 Ohio State +245

I’ll pay to find out on this one. What if Fahey and Ohio State don’t improve? They didn’t give me much confidence coming off their bye against a worse defense. And now Oregon has life, slotting in at 23rd in the playoff rankings. Give me the Ducks.

What is your favorite 2026 week 10 college football best bets? Let me know on X!

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