2026 NFL Week 5 Best Bets
2026 NFL Week 5 Best Bets
Week 5 signals a quarter of the way through the NFL season. We are firmly in the middle of international games, with the third consecutive week and second with a 9:30 ET kickoff. Bye weeks are here, as the undefeated Chiefs and Carolina Panthers are off this week. Here are my favorite week 5 NFL bets.
Odds courtesy of BetUS. Use promo code Use promo code YARDSPER at sign up to receive a 125% BONUS on your first 3 deposits.
Please gamble responsibly and within your means. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Week 4: 1-3 (-2.39 units)
YTD: 5-6 (-1.82 units)
Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)*
Jacksonville -7.5; O/U 41.5
Philadelphia: Team Total Under 16.5 (-115)
* Game played in London, England
The second and final game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in the London series. Jacksonville will stay here and play a divisional game against Houston next week at Wembley Stadium.
We hit on the total last week, with the under cashing between the Colts and Commanders. In 11 games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, the average game total is 43 PPG. Jacksonville’s defense has caused the most turnovers (six) and has the second best scoring defense in the league (13.3 PPG). Philadelphia legend Lane Johnson just announced his retirement; in games where Lane Johnson has missed and Jalen Hurts is the starting quarterback, the Eagles are just 7-10 and average 21.7 PPG. For comparison, when Johnson and Hurts were on the field together, the Eagles were 54-18 and averaged 26.4 PPG. It doesn’t help the Eagles will be without Saquon Barkley. Devonta Smith has not practiced this week, and Dontayvion Wicks popped up on the injury report. This could be a whose who of offensive players for the Eagles. I’ll take their team total under for this one.
Chicago Bears (3-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-2)
Green Bay +1.5; O/U 46.5
Under 46.5 (-124)
It’s amazing how well the Bears have played with their backup quarterbacks. But what is more amazing is their defense. Let’s look at the last two games – their first one against Carolina is an outlier, and the loss against Minnesota was a weather game. They allowed seven (7) first downs last week against the Jets and just 4.9 YPP. The week before against the Eagles was 14 first downs and 5.4 YPP. Now they take on a Green Bay team that ranks 28th in scoring through four weeks at 18.3 PPG. This will be the first road test for backup Tyson Bagent in the league’s most heated rivalry. Kyle Monangai has been the most efficient runner for the Bears this season, and is at risk to miss the game due to a turf toe injury. I think this total falls to the under.
San Francisco 49ers (4-0) vs. Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
Seattle -3; O/U 45.5
Seattle -3 (-110)
In divisional games since Mike Macdonald became Seattle’s head coach, the Seahawks are 10-5 ATS. Since the start of their Super Bowl season last year, that hits at a higher rate, going 7-2 ATS. San Francisco is one of three unbeaten teams, in large part due to the amazing play of their offense. Purdy is the early favorite for MVP, throwing for 11 touchdowns to a single interception. He has yet to be sacked this year. In his five games against this Will Macdonald defense, including the playoffs, Purdy is averaging 68.3% completion rate for 6.61 YPA, six passing touchdowns and five interceptions. The 49ers averaged just 15.8 PPG in those five contests. I think this Seattle defense can cause havoc for an offense that has been near perfect this year.
Detroit Lions (2-2) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-3)
Arizona +5.5; O/U 54.5
Over 54.5 (-115)
Since last Thanksgiving, when the total opens over 50, the over has cashed in 13 of 18. Since Ben Johnson’s departure for Chicago’s head coaching position at the end of the 2024 season, when coming off a loss, Detroit averages 31.3 PPG, with the over cashing in six of nine. Arizona has allowed at least 31 points in each of their last three games. Jacoby Brissett is the king of garbage time scoring, and this Detroit defense can definitely be beat. It is early in the season, but the highest game total has hit the over in three of four. I’ll take the over and hope this trend moves to 4-1.
Week 4 Teaser Parlay: 0-0 (0.00 units)
YTD Teaser Parlay: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
Week 5 Teaser Parlay (1 unit): +164
Philadelphia: Team Total Under 20.5
Chicago/Green Bay: Under 52.5
Detroit/Arizona: Over 48.5
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 4: 0-1 (-0.50 units)
YTD: 2-2 (+0.39 units)
Cleveland @ New York (A) +114
The Jets defense seems improved from last year, but their offense is abysmal. Cleveland has come out fiery this year and Deshaun Watson has played well to start the season. There seems to be some momentum for Cleveland, and I’ll take them to win this one outright.
New York (N) @ Washington +160
Jayden Daniels is back for Washington, but the rest of the team is coming back from London on no rest. John Harbaugh has this Giants’ team starting well, despite losing their starting quarterback in week two against the Rams. I think they extend their lead in the NFC East with a big road, divisional win.
Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh +124
This Colts defense has improved drastically since the opener embarrassment against the Ravens. Now they face a Pittsburgh team that is not intimidating anyone on offense, and has a top-third defense. I like the Colts to go on the road and win this one.
New Orleans vs. Minnesota +120
One of the three undefeated teams is not like the other. San Francisco and Kansas City have a top-six offense entering Week 5. Minnesota? 18th. Now they travel down to a 1-3 New Orleans team, that just allowed 45 points to Atlanta at home in primetime, and are not even favored by more than a field goal? I’m on the Saints to win this one outright.
What are some of your favorite Week 5 NFL best bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ on X for more football content!
