2026 NFL Week 4 Best Bets
2026 NFL Week 4 Best Bets
We come to a pivotal point in the NFL season. While some teams are undefeated, or at least have a win under their belt, a handful of teams are still winless after three weeks. Some knew it would be a long year, while others had deep playoff hopes. Only one team has made the playoffs after an 0-4 start, and it’s been 34 years since they did so. For others, this week offers an opportunity to gain ground on your division, or climb back into the race. Here are my favorite week 4 NFL bets.
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Week 3: 2-1 (+0.85 units)
YTD: 4-3 (+0.57 units)
Indianapolis Colts (1-2) vs. Washington Commanders (1-2)*
Washington +3.5; O/U 47.5
Under 47.5 (-112)
* Game played in London, England
Week four in the NFL marks the weekly tradition of Sunday morning across the pond. This one will take place at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Since 2021, games played in Hotspur Stadium average 43 PPG, with only three of ten clearing this number. Mariota has been strong in his first starts of the year, but afterwards is rough waters. With the Commanders in starts after his first start of the year, Washington is 1-6 and averaging 20.2 PPG. The Colts look rejuvenated after an embarrassing opener against Baltimore. I think this one falls under the total across the pond.
Dallas Cowboys (1-2) vs. Houston Texans (0-3)
Houston -3; O/U 48.5
Houston -3 (-112)
Under 48.5 (-115)
Dallas comes back to the United States off a brutal, last second loss to Baltimore in Brazil. No bye week for Dallas, and they head to play a desperate team in Houston. I touched on it in the intro: only one team in NFL history has made the playoffs after an 0-4 start. Nico Collins did practice this week, and is a game changer for the offense. When Stroud has started without Collins, the Texans are 4-5 compared to 24-16 when the duo is on the field. In games against the NFC since DeMeco Ryans became the Texans’ head coach, the under is 10-4-1 when playing the NFC. The average game total is 42.3, and only three of the 15 cleared this number. Add in the fact Dallas has no break in between the trip to London, I’ll take Houston and the under in this lonestar battle.
Detroit Lions (2-1) vs. Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Carolina +3.5; O/U 51.5
Detroit -3.5 (-112)
Carolina will be without their starting two corners in Jaycee Horn and Mark Jackson will miss this game. Carolina ranks in the top-5 in pass defense this year, but one of the three games came against Atlanta’s third and fourth string quarterbacks. Bryce Young has been sacked just seven times through three games, but now will go up against Detroit’s pass rush that ranks 2nd to Minnesota in sacks (12).
While early in the year, Detroit’s Jared Goff has a career high 7.3% touchdown rate. Carolina is allowing 5.12 YPC on the ground to opposing team’s top option at running back. Ultimately, I believe this offense of Detroit will be too much to handle against a weakened Carolina defense. I’ll take the Lions to cover on Sunday night.
Week 3 Teaser Parlay: 0-0 (0.00 units)
YTD Teaser Parlay: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 3: 2-0 (+1.39 units)
YTD: 2-1 (+0.89 units)
New York Jets @ Chicago +145
Case Keenum and the Bears were a good primetime story. But now they host a feisty Jets team that has kept the other two games in the NFC North close. They should have won the game against the Packers if it wasn’t for poor clock management, and the Lions scored a touchdown just outside the two-minute warning to win last week. Geno Smith is playing well and has options in Garrett Wilson and Kenyon Sadiq. I’ll take the Jets to win outright.
What are some of your favorite Week 4 NFL best bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ on X for more football content!
