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Studs, Duds, & Values In 2022 Fantasy Football
In the final part of this eight part series, we’ll walk through the AFC South to identify a stud, a dud (bust), and a value on each team in regards to 2022 fantasy football. It’s important to remember that the “duds” are in reference to that particular player’s current ADP.
Indianapolis Colts
Stud: Michael Pittman
Michael Pittman is good. So good that he ranked No.4 in PlayerProfiler.com’s route win rate metric (51.3%), meaning only three receivers in the NFL beat their coverage at a higher rate in 2021. Over the last six weeks of the season, Pittman commanded a massive 31-percent target share as he emerged as the true alpha in the passing game.
With T.Y. Hilton gone, there are absolutely zero threats to that target share on the roster. And now he gets a quarterback upgrade to Matt Ryan. Where the upgrade to Ryan really comes into play, is the offense will he able to move at a faster pace and will be more efficient, meaning more plays and more high value opportunities. That includes in the red zone, where the 6-4, 223-pound beast is going to use his contested catch ability to dominate and perhaps even score double-digit touchdowns.
Dud: Alec Pierce
Alec Pierce over Skyy Moore was one of the biggest debacles of the entire NFL Draft. This is a guy who had just a 25-percent dominator rating in college and averaged less than four receptions per game in 2021. He’s not a great route runner, and he’s not great after the catch, either.
Value: Parris Campbell
I have always and will always love Parris Campbell. He had an excellent profile coming into the NFL from Ohio State. He’s an excellent athlete who has just run into bad injury luck to start his career. I’m still convinced that if he can stay healthy, he’s got a 1,000-yard season in him.
Houston Texans
Stud: Brandin Cooks
Brandin Cooks is always underrated. Yet, he produces every single season. In fact, he’s gone over 1,000 yards in six of his seven seasons. That includes last season when he was top-15 in deep targets and top-10 in both target share and air yards share (PlayerProfiler.com). There’s some worry about how he’ll hold up with Davis Mills as his quarterback. However, in the nine games the two played together last year, Cooks averaged over 16 fantasy points per game. He’s a stud.
Dud: N/A
I originally had Marlon Mack here. Considering he got cut, I think I nailed it. There’s no one else on this roster with high enough expectations that could even be considered to be a dud.
Value: Brevin Jordan
Brevin Jordan scored as a TE1 in four of his nine games over the second half of his rookie season. Yet, he’s hardly mentioned among the late-round sleepers at his position. It’s not crazy to think Davis Mills takes a step forward in his second season and this offense is a lot better than it’s being projected. At wide receiver Houston has Cooks and Nico Collins on the perimeter and they really don’t have anyone who is going to command targets from the slot. That opens up an opportunity in the middle of the field for Jordan. It’s not hard to imagine a world where he finishes second on the team in targets and even leads them in red zone looks.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Stud: Travis Etienne
Travis Etienne is back healthy and lighting up training camp. He’s one of the most productive college running backs we’ve seen over the last decade. He had back-to-back seasons with over 1,600 rushing yards during his time at Clemson with a whopping 78 career touchdowns. He was incredible as a pass-catcher with 102 receptions in his career. The Jaguars have upgraded the offense this offseason to give Etienne and his former Clemson teammate Trevor Lawrence every opportunity to thrive in their second season. They brought in a respectable coaching staff, spent up big in free agency to improve the weapons, and upgraded the offensive line.
We can easily project 200 carries and more than 50 receptions. That feels like the floor. His upside is the full Austin Ekeler role—210 carries, 90 targets, double-digit touchdowns. That’s a league-winner. And you can get him in the fourth round.
Dud: Evan Engram
Do I really have to say much here? It’s Evan Engram. The argument in his favor is that the Jaguars don’t exactly have a fierce group of target hogs and Engram could end up commanding a decent target share. But didn’t he just come from a similar situation with the Giants? He flamed out with them, I expect the same In Jacksonville.
Value: Zay Jones
Zay Jones emerged as quite productive at the end of last season with the Raiders. He averaged 8 targets per game over the final eight weeks which included five double-digit fantasy performances. He capped it off with five receptions for 61 yards and a score in Vegas’ playoff loss to the Bengals. It was enough to land a new three-year, $24 million deal with the Jaguars that includes $14 million in guarantees. A deal like that indicates the team has a plan for him. After all, the target competition in Jacksonville isn’t exactly fierce. The projected WR1, Christian Kirk, has never had a 1,000-yard season in four years in the NFL. After that, it’s a 32-year old Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, and Laquon Treadwell.
Jones has a real shot at 80-plus targets in what is expected to be a much improved offense. Jones is not necessarily the guy you want to grab in your home league, but in deep formats or in best ball, he has an excellent chance at significantly out-producing his ADP.
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Tennessee Titans
Stud: Derrick Henry
There’s a reason they call him King Henry. A healthy Derrick Henry is the most dominant runner in football. Plus, there’s really no other candidates on that team that could qualify as a “stud.”
Dud: Treylon Burks
Similar to what I said with Henry, there’s really no one else with high enough expectations that I could put as a dud here. I actually love Treylon Burks. He absolutely pops in our rookie scouting database at Yards Per Fantasy. I’m certainly not ready to change my stance on him from a dynasty perspective before he even takes a regular season snap. However, it’s impossible to ignore the constant flow of negative reports coming out of Titans camp. I don’t think he’ll be a bust in the NFL, but a slow start is possible.
Value: Julius Chestnut
There has been lots of positive reports out of Titans camp on undrafted rookie running back Julius Chestnut, even going back to the spring. Chestnut was on our radar as an intriguing prospect before the NFL draft so it’s not surprising that he’s performing well. If he locks down the No.2 job behind Derrick Henry he could prove to be an absolute steal. If Henry suffers another injury—which is certainly possible given his workload and his age—everyone will be rushing to the waiver wire to pick up Chestnut. Get ahead of the game and just draft him.
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