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Studs, Duds, & Values In 2022 Fantasy Football
In part one of this eight part series, we’ll walk through the AFC East to identify a stud, a dud (bust), and a value on each team in regards to 2022 fantasy football. It’s important to remember that the “duds” are in reference to that particular player’s current ADP.
New England Patriots
Patriots Team Preview – #Project32
Stud: Rhamondre Stevenson
Rhamondre Stevenson has always been in line for a greater opportunity in his second season after he played so well as a rookie. Now, he has an opportunity to not only eat into Damien Harris’ early-downs and goal line work, but he’s reportedly working in the “James White role” in training camp. Imagine this 231-pound behemoth catching check-downs in space? Oh, baby.
Dud: Damien Harris
Sure, the Patriots want to run the ball, but they did that last year, too, and Harris was still a middling RB2 despite a near-7% touchdown rate. It’s also possible they ramp-up the pass attack in Mac Jones’ second year and with a (slightly) upgraded receiving corps. And as I mentioned with Stevenson, Harris will likely be ceding additional work to the Patriots second-year back. It’s hard to see a path to anything close to his 2021 production.
Value: DeVante Parker
DeVante Parker has been lighting up Patriots training camp. He’s seeing downfield looks from Mac Jones and he’s become the favorite red zone target for the sophomore quarterback. We’ve seen what a healthy and motivated Parker can do in the past. It seems like he may be back to that level with his new team.
Buffalo Bills
Bills Team Preview – #Project32
Stud: Josh Allen
Josh Allen was the QB1 in 2021 in both total points and on a per-game basis. He’s easily the top-ranked quarterback in 2022. Not only does he have a cannon arm—and the weapons to take advantage—but his rushing ability gives him a high floor week-to-week with an insane ceiling.
Dud: Gabriel Davis
You’ll never catch me drafting Gabriel Davis as high as he’s going in some drafts. I don’t care that he had one insane game in the playoffs. That doesn’t rationalize taking him ahead of proven studs. This is a guy who in two seasons in the NFL has never reached 65 targets, never had more than 35 receptions, and never reached 600 receiving yards. He had a target share of just 10.9-percent in each season. In 2021, Davis ranked 67th among all wide receivers in PlayerProfiler’s route win rate metric (37.1-percent). The Davis truthers try to make up excuses for his lack of involvement in the offense like arguing the reason he wasn’t on the field was because of Emmanuel Sanders. Really? You’re using this much draft capital to get a guy who can’t even beat out Emmanuel Sanders?! Come on now.
Value: Stefon Diggs
Stefon Diggs is a stud. There’s no debate about that. In what was widely considered a “down year” in 2021, Diggs still ranked top-5 in targets, air yards, and red zone targets while commanding a healthy 26.4-percent target share. He finished the year with 103 receptions for 1,225 yards and 10 touchdowns. If that’s his down season, I can’t imagine what a “bounce-back” would look like in 2022. He’s the value here because, while we have him ranked as a mid-first rounder in the Yards Per Fantasy draft kit, his ADP has him slipping to the second round on Sleeper.
New York Jets
Jets Team Preview – #Project32
Stud: Elijah Moore
Elijah Moore was incredibly impressive during his healthy games as a rookie. Despite missing six contests and not exactly having the best quarterback situation, Moore managed over 500 receiving yards on 43 receptions. It all culminated in overall WR1 and WR3 performances in Week 9 and Week 11 when he combined for 225 yards and three scores on 15 receptions. He’s the locked-in alpha in the passing game in what should be an improved Jets offense.
Dud: Garrett Wilson
The Jets selected Garrett Wilson in the top-10 of the 2022 draft. However, with Moore taking on the role as the alpha and Corey Davis one year removed from a significant free agent contract, Wilson seems securely in the No.3 chair among the Jets receivers. That’s not exactly great news in an offense that appears set to feed their rookie running back and is leaning on a below average quarterback. Don’t get me wrong, I appreciate Wilson’s talent and expect he will have a very successful NFL career, but the stars don’t seem to be aligned for him to break out as a rookie.
Value: Breece Hall
The Jets traded up to draft the top back in the class early in the second round. Breece Hall is an incredible athlete with elite size-adjusted traits. He’s an excellent fit in the outside zone running scheme and he will easily supplant Michael Carter to become the three-down bellcow. He can absolutely be your “anchor” running back if you start your draft WR-WR-WR. I would certainly prefer Hall over someone like James Conner.
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins Team Preview – #Project32
Stud: Chase Edmonds
Chase Edmonds is in line to be the top dog in the Dolphins backfield. We all think of him as this excellent receiving back—which he is—but he’s been efficient in all areas throughout his career. Taking on a bigger role last year in Arizona, Edmonds finished top-12 in evaded tackles per touch and breakaway run rate. He was also top-10 in true yards per carry and yards per touch (PlayerProfiler.com). He’s a good fit in the Kyle Shanahan-style outside zone running scheme that Mike McDaniel and company are going to deploy in Miami. The Dolphins upgraded the offense across the board with the improvements on the offensive line as well as the additions of Tyreek Hill and Edmonds himself, so we can project a more efficient unit than we saw a year ago. Are we really worried about the other running backs on the roster (Sony Michel, Raheem Mostert, Myles Gaskin)? No. Edmonds is an incredible value at ADP.
Dud: Tyreek Hill
I’m about a full round below consensus on Tyreek Hill this year. It’s not so much about Hill himself—he’s still one of the most talented receivers in the league—but the situation is concerning considering we have to use substantial draft capital in order to get him. He has gone from the Patrick Mahomes led Chiefs to the Tua Tagovailoa Dolphins. This is the same Tua Tagovailoa who threw 16 touchdowns in 13 games in 2021. It’s the same Tua that ranked 31st in air yards per attempt (PlayerProfiler.com). Tua will not allow Hill to reach his maximum ceiling like Mahomes was able to unlock. I can’t see a world where both Hill and Jaylen Waddle are commanding high target shares and racking up fantasy points.
Value: Tua Tagovailoa
After I just trashed Tua while talking about Tyreek Hill, I’m going to list him here as the value. To be honest, he’s only here because there aren’t any other options to choose from, really. He has an ADP of QB16 so it doesn’t really cost much to acquire him. He does have an upgraded supporting cast around him with the additions of Terron Armstead on the offensive line, Hill at wide receiver, and Chase Edmonds in the backfield. The Dolphins have done as much as they can to set up Tua for a good season. We’ll see if he can actually get it done.
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