5 Fantasy Relevant Stats for Each AFC East Team

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5 Fantasy-Relevant Stats for Each AFC East Team

Training camps are in full swing and home league drafts are so close you can almost taste the wings, beer, and tears of your league mates after drafting the ultimate team. I’m here to help in that endeavor (the tears part, not the wings or beer) with stats that every fantasy footballer needs to know going into the 2022 season. We’ll start with the AFC East.

Note: Most of these stats can be found at PFF and PlayerProfiler.com

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills

72 Percent The catchable target rate for Stefon Diggs in 2021. In 2020 it was 84.9 percent, when he enjoyed 310 more yards on just 2 more targets. This huge dip is why he can be found in the 2^nd round of most drafts but watch for this to regress to his career average of around 80 percent, making him a beautiful gift at his current ADP.
25.88 The expected number of fantasy points per game for Josh Allen, up from 24.11 in 2020. His actual fantasy points per game was 24.6, which was a -1.32 differential but still good for the top quarterback in fantasy. In other words, his 2021 was basically his floor.
19.7 The amount of fantasy points per game for Devin Singletary from Weeks 14-20, which is when Zach Moss was phased out of the offense. Even if James Cook steals most of the passing downs work Singletary can be a value in drafts as the RB35.
62.4 The PFF receiving grade given to Dawson Knox in 2021 which is 42^nd among tight ends and is below players like Ricky Seals-Jones and Jack Doyle. Knox can be lumped into tight ends that have to get lucky in the touchdown department to have any fantasy relevance.
1.98 The yards per route run for James Cook in his career at Georgia, which compares favorably to Travis Etienne (1.7) and Deandre Swift (1.4). Cook could be an efficiency monster with the ball in his hands, and his role will grow as the season goes on.

Miami Dolphins

4.0 The yards after catch per reception for Tyreek Hill in 2021, down from 4.9 in 2020 and way down from his career best 6.0 in 2018 and 2017. Can we still call Hill the fastest in the game? New coach Mike McDaniels’ West Coast offense relies on YAC for the wide receivers (see Samuel, Deebo), but with Hill’s declining metrics we’ll see if he can meet his WR9 ADP.
5.5 The air yards per reception for Jaylen Waddle which was below slot players like Jarvis Landry and Hunter Renfrow. With Tyreek Hill getting buzz in camp for a deep ball connection with Tua and Waddle being left with the short scraps, I’m staying away from him in anything other than a PPR draft when he falls significantly.
412 The slot snaps for Mike Gesicki which ranked first out of all tight ends. The Dolphins brought in Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson in the offseason to switch between the slot and outside duties leaving Gesicki to be more of an inline tight end. Look for him to block more in 2022 and have fewer opportunities in the passing game.
2.4 Percent The rate of big time throws (balls thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window) in 2021 by Tua Tagavailoa which was below the struggling rookie Zach Wilson and washed Ben Roethlisberger. The almost non-existent throws downfield along with the third highest turnover worthy play rate make Tua a tough sell in 2022.
28.4 Percent The rate of 15+ yard runs by Chase Edmonds which ranked 13^th in 2021. Edmonds projects as the Dolphins passing downs back but he is a big play threat on the ground as well. He is one of the best running back values at his current ADP of RB29.

New England Patriots

10.06 The expected total touchdowns for Damien Harris in 2021 which was 4.94 below his actual total of 15 and third highest outlier among running back in the league. With a minimal role in the passing game and having to share early down work with Rhamondre Stevenson, it’s tough to draft Harris even at RB33.
144.4 The passer rating of Mac Jones versus zone coverage, the top rating in the league. Jones sees the field at an advanced level and that was especially true as a rookie. With DeVante Parker and Tyquan Thornton joining the wide receiver room he should be more productive against man coverage in 2022. He’ll be a sneaky value in two QB leagues.
35.4 Percent The evaded tackles per touch of Rhamondre Stevenson in 2021 which ranked 4^th out of all running backs. The Patriots don’t usually play rookies at the running back position, but Stevenson’s explosiveness and talent was too much to ignore. The Patriots’ offense will be even better in 2022 and Stevenson should have the receiving downs as well as a share of the early downs.
1.48 The yards per route run for DeVante Parker in 2021, down from his high of 1.89 in 2019 and only 59^th out of qualified wide receivers. Parker has dealt with injuries his whole career and he seems to be on the decline. He’s a decent dart throw in best ball drafts but will be tough to use in weekly formats.
10.6 The average depth of target for Hunter Henry in 2021 which ranked 5^th out of all tight ends. The Patriots used Henry aggressively downfield as he was in the slot or out wide on 73.2 percent of his snaps and target him deeper down the field and in the red zone. Mac Jones will get the green light to throw more often in 2022 so Henry is a late-round steal at tight end.

New York Jets

73.8 The overall PFF receiving grade for Elijah Moore which was 4^th among rookies and puts him in some elite company in history. As shown in the sample below, rookie wide receivers with a 75 grade or higher finish as a WR1 44 percent of the time over the next two years. Moore started slowly with a struggling Zach Wilson, but his last 6 healthy games would’ve easily qualified for this. I like Moore better if Wilson is hurt for a significant amount of time, but we know that he’s #goodatfootball.

2.83 The yards after contact per rush for Breece Hall in 2021 which ranked 175^th out of all running backs in college football. Hall has more of an all-or-nothing back a la Saquon Barkley, and (spoiler alert) Ken Walker had more missed tackles forced, yards after contact, explosive rushes, and lower stuff rate. I’m fading Hall at his current ADP of RB18.
9.6 Michael Carter’s yards after contact per reception which ranked 6^th out of all running back in 2021. Carter showed that he was an every down back and will carve out a bigger role than expected in 2022. He’s currently being drafted as RB48 but should be much higher.
3.00 The yards per route run for Garrett Wilson in 2021, which was significantly down from his 3.86 showing in 2020. Ohio State was bursting at the seams with wide receiver talent and there’s only one football to go around so the targets were more spread out. This is a lesson for the 2022 Jets as Moore and Wilson can’t both be breakouts in a low volume, anemic Jets offense that still has Corey Davis, Breece Hall, and Michael Carter to feed.
-.139 The adjusted EPA per play in 2021 for Zach Wilson which was the 5^th worst for a QB since 2010. This means that every play Wilson was costing his team -.139 points. As you can see in the chart below he has some rather notorious company. The lowest a rookie has finished while going on to be at least an average QB was Derek Carr in 2014 with a -.068, and he’s been spotty at best. This is me throwing water on the Zach Wilson breakout hype.