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Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins
Don’t get me wrong, Tyreek Hill is a fantastic talent. But his fantasy floor and ceiling are not what they once were. He has gone from the high-flying, Patrick Mahomes led Chiefs to the Tua Tagovailoa Dolphins. This is the same Tua Tagovailoa who threw 16 touchdowns in 13 games in 2021. It’s the same Tua that ranked 31st in air yards per attempt (PlayerProfiler.com). In Kansas City, the passing game went through two guys—Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. In Miami, Hill will have to contend with a redundant asset in Jaylen Waddle. Stylistically, these are two similar players who are going to siphon targets away from each other. Neither guy is going to see the same target shares they were seeing before teaming up.
Add to that, Hill is going from the pass-happy Chiefs to an offense led by Kyle Shanahan disciple Mike McDaniel. The offense will likely be more run-oriented than Hill’s used to, with a slow pace of play. Hill will get his but he’s going to have to rely more on his run after catch ability and less on those magical Mahomes moments that created the massive weekly upside he gave us over the last three years.
Rashaad Penny, RB, Seahawks
Rashaad Penny averaged more than 22 fantasy points per game over the final five weeks last season. He was awesome! But we’re now in 2022 and things have changed. Russell Wilson is gone—shipped off to Denver. That leaves Penny in the worst offense in the league with the worst quarterback situation in the league. This is going to be an offense that plays at a slow pace, is inefficient, struggles to keep drives alive, won’t see many red zone trips, and will limit the fantasy production of all of its players. It’s not like he’ll make up for it as a pass-catcher like we saw with D’Andre Swift last year.Even in a functional offense with Russell Wilson at quarterback last year, he averaged just one reception per game over his hot five-game stretch. Over his career, he’s averaged 0.62 receptions per game.
Let’s not forget, the Seahawks just used a second-round pick on a running back. And sure, Penny is reportedly expected to remain atop the depth chart, but it’s only a matter of time before Kenneth Walker gets an opportunity to take on a bigger role in the backfield. So now we have a running back who doesn’t catch passes, in a bad offense, and (at best) splitting the early-downs work. I’m out.
And, not this does not mean “Kenneth Walker SZN.” I like Walker even worse in redraft leagues for all the same reasons. And then add in that he’s a rooke, expected to start the season as the No.2? No thanks.
James Conner, RB, Cardinals
On the surface, James Conner’s 2021 season was quite spectacular. It was a career renaissance after a couple injury-plagued seasons in Pittsburgh. But you’re in for a rude awakening if you expect a repeat of last year’s output. Conner’s fantasy production mostly came from his 18 touchdowns and a crazy 7.5-percent touchdown rate. That is not a sustainable rate. None of his other statistics cracked the top-10. In fact, touchdowns aside, his numbers were quite pedestrian. He took 202 carries (No.17) for 752 yards (No.24). As a pass-catcher, he had 37 receptions (No.27) for 375 yards (No.11). He wasn’t even overly efficient, either. His true yards per carry (3.6) ranked 62nd while his yards per touch, evaded tackles per touch, and breakaway run rate all ranked outside the top-24 (PlayerProfiler.com). When fantasy analysts tell you not to draft running backs in “the dead zone,” this is who they’re talking about.
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Gabriel Davis, WR, Bills
Gabriel Davis is going as WR24 on Underdog. But You’ll never catch me drafting Gabriel Davis as high as he’s going on Underdog. I don’t care that he had one insane game in the playoffs. That doesn’t rationalize taking him ahead of proven studs. This is a guy who in two seasons in the NFL has never reached 65 targets, never had more than 35 receptions, and never reached 600 receiving yards. He had a target share of just 10.9-percent in each season. In 2021, Davis ranked 67th among all wide receivers in PlayerProfiler’s route win rate metric (37.1-percent). The Davis truthers try to make up excuses for his lack of involvement in the offense like arguing the reason he wasn’t on the field was because of Emmanuel Sanders. Really? You’re using this much draft capital to get a guy who can’t even beat out Emmanuel Sanders?! Come on now.
Damien Harris, RB, Patriots
Last season, Damien Harris finished second in the NFL in rushing touchdowns (15) behind just Jonathan Taylor (18). Yet, Taylor won leagues as the RB1 while Harris was the RB18 in fantasy points per game. He was completely touchdown dependent. In the four games that he didn’t score, Harris’ best finish was RB27 with 11.7 fantasy points in Week 1. Based on his 929 rushing yards, he doubled his expected touchdowns total. His 6.8% touchdown rate was third-highest among running backs. It’s hard to imagine he scores at that rate again as that should regress back to the mean somewhat, at least.
So where are the fantasy points coming from? He doesn’t catch passes—he averaged just one per game in 2021. It’s not like he’s seeing workhorse touches on the ground, either—he averaged just 13.5 carries per game. Rhamondre Stevenson proved himself as a rookie. He’s not going anywhere. And he is a better pass-catcher than Harris, too. The Patriots just drafted two running backs—Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris—in the draft.
Sure the Patriots want to run the ball, but they did that last year, too, and Harris was still a middling RB2 despite a near-7% touchdown rate. It’s also possible they ramp-up the pass attack in Mac Jones’ second year and with a (slightly) upgraded receiving corps. Let’s not forget, Matt Patricia seems to be the likely candidate for offensive play-caller in New England. Gross. Harris’ ADP has been suppressed as fantasy gamers realize the reality of his situation. But he’s the prototypical “deadzone” running back. Even in the middle rounds I just can’t click the button.
David Montgomery, RB, Bears
David Montgomery seems to always break through a bad situation to become a solid fantasy producer. While that’s great, I’m still refusing to draft him in 2022. He’s in one of the worst situations of any starting running back. I recently did a study on why offensive environment is so important to a running back’s fantasy output. The Bears are the quintessential offense to avoid based on the results. They could legitimately score the fewest points in the league. They’re going to be slow, inefficient, with fewer possessions, plays, and red zone trips. With Justin Fields at quarterback things may be even worse for Montgomery. Fields’ athleticism and lack of polish as a pocket-passer (nevermind the lack of weapons), make him more apt to call his own number. That will be especially detrimental to Montgomery on the rare occasion the Bears are in the red zone.
Montgomery doesn’t have the receiving profile to even make up for it, nor the athletic traits to create chunk plays and breakaway runs on his own. He was 31st in evaded tackles per touch in 2021, 42nd in yards created per touch, and 37th in breakaway run rate (PlayerProfiler.com). If you want to draft him in the middle rounds because he’s going to get 20 touches per game, fine. I get it. But just know the efficiency and ceiling won’t be there. And who’s to say the new coaching staff doesn’t come in and decide to give Khalil Herbert a few more touches per game? Fantasy gamers consider Montgomery a “safe pick.” I think we just proved he’s anything but.
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