4 Running Backs Who Are Massive Values In 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts
4 Running Backs Who Present Massive Values In 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts
At this point in the fantasy football drafting season, ADPs aren’t quite dialed in. What I mean is, for one reason or another, there are some players who are being drafted way higher or way lower than they will be when things settle down in August. But for now, there are some areas of the board that allow for some massive values. As I go through my early 2023 drafts (yes, I’m already drafting), there are a handful of running backs that I’ve noticed have ADPs that are completely out of wack. I mean, these guys are going ROUNDS later than they should be. I expect that will somewhat correct in August, but right now I am eating up the value while I can. You should do the same.
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More: How to build projections in 2023
Joe Mixon, Bengals
With a dip in efficiency in 2022 and some off-the-field incidents to begin the offseason, fantasy football drafters are completely fading Joe Mixon in 2023. His Underdog ADP currently resides in the fifth round. That makes no sense. The guy is coming off an RB7 season after averaging 16 fantasy points per game. The season before? He was RB5. His competition for touches is gone—Samaje Perine touched the ball nearly 150 times in 2022 but is now in Denver. Mixon is going to get plenty of volume. He will easily lead the team in carries by a wide margin and will continue to see a bunch of targets.
The Bengals
The Bengals pass the ball at a high rate which helped Mixon reach a career-high 60 receptions (74 targets) in 2022, which ranked top-5 among running backs. That type of volume in the passing game gives Mixon a high ceiling and a high floor. His ceiling gets another boost just from being in the Bengals offense. Sure, there’s a lot of playmakers commanding touches, but efficient offenses allow for more opportunities for everyone and plenty of red zone trips and touchdowns. Mixon was top-6 with 46 red zone touches in 2022. He scored in nine of those and had 16 touchdowns in 2021. Perine vultured six more scores last season that could be Mixon’s in 2023.
The addition of pro bowl tackle Orlando Brown was made to continue to improve the protection around Joe Burrow, but it certainly helps Mixon’s case for another top-10 season.
Smashing Value
Mixon is being drafted at his absolute floor despite a clear path to elite volume, playing in a high-scoring offense, working behind a quality offensive line, and zero touch competition. He is the perfect pick for anyone who wants to draft wide receiver heavy early or takes one of the elite quarterbacks or tight ends and needs a strong anchor running back in round five.
Rachaad White, Bucs
Rachaad White might be the steal of every 2023 fantasy football draft right now. He is in line for a significant workload but is being drafted as a mid-range RB3. After the Bucs drafted him in the third round, White had a productive rookie season even while starting the year behind Leonard Fournette. The team turned to the rookie in Week 10, giving him a surprise start over the veteran. In the international stage in Germany, White ran through the Seahawks for 105 yards and his second RB2 performance.
Passing of the Torch
White took double-digit carries in four of the last seven regular season games and finished as a top-25 running back in all four with two top-10 weeks. Over that stretch, White showed off his receiving skills by averaging five receptions per game to finish the season with 50 catches. While the Bucs backfield remained an even split through the playoffs, it was clear White was the better back in all phases. The team clearly saw the same thing and made the decision to release Fournette at the start of the 2023 offseason.
Actions Speak Louder Than Words
But what they did (or didn’t do) next was the clearest sign that they are all-in on White. Despite the deepest free agent running back class in recent memory, the team only added a washed up Chase Edmonds who is zero threat to White’s workload. And despite holding eight draft picks and a quality rookie running back class, the team used zero draft capital on the position, only adding Sean Tucker as an undrafted free agent.
He’s Good
Remember, White was a strong prospect coming out of Arizona State last year. The team invested a third round pick on him and for good reason. Not only is he a big, explosive runner, he is one of the best receiving backs to enter the league in the last five years. While leading Arizona State in rushing yards in 2021, he also had the team’s second-highest share of receiving yards. And sure, the pundits will criticize him for his inefficiency as a runner in 2022, but he was a rookie, for one, and was behind the NFL’s most injury-depleted offensive line. He still managed to out-perform the other players in his backfield from an efficiency perspective.
The Bucs
The line is now healed and the path has been paved for a huge workload. Yet, it feels like fantasy gamers are terrified to draft him because of the quarterback change from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield. I get that the offense will be less efficient and the touchdown opportunities will be fewer with the GOAT now hitting balls on the golf course, but there are still plenty of reasons why White will be just fine in this offense.
For one, they will surely lean on the run game more than they did with Brady. The days of 700+ pass attempts in Tampa are long gone. But when they do drop back, White will provide an easy outlet for Mayfield to check to when he’s in trouble as well as a weapon who can be the primary target in some situations. Plus, we all agree this team will be bad right? So it’s going to be targets galore in the second half of games when they’re in full comeback mode.
ADP
However you feel about White and however you feel about this offense, letting White’s ADP fall all the way to the eighth round is absurd. Fantasy gamers always talk about how volume is king, yet are ignoring that concept in this situation. I will surely be taking full advantage and eating up the value while it lasts. As it looks now, Rachaad White will be my most drafted running back in 2023 and it won’t be close.
David Montgomery, Lions
I’ve never really been a ‘David Montgomery guy.’ I’ve always viewed him as overvalued in fantasy drafts. Some years I was right, others I was wrong. But in 2023, I’m all in. Montgomery departed Chicago this offseason and signed a three-year deal with the Lions worth $18 million. This is an offense that scored at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL last season. They were one of three teams (Bills & Eagles) to finish the year top-12 in both rushing yards and passing yards. Montgomery projects to slide right into the role that Jamaal Williams held on his way to 1,000 yards and 17 touchdowns. Montgomery is a better version of Williams across the board. He may not score 17 touchdowns, but Montgomery can realistically get to 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns with 30 receptions.
But but but…Jahmyr Gibbs!
And sure, I’m well aware the team used a top-12 pick on a running back. But, Jahmyr Gibbs will be more in the D’Andre Swift role. He might be a better version of Swift, but it will still be far from a bellcow opportunity. Gibbs will catch a bunch of passes and see 7-10 carries per game, but that will still leave plenty of work for Montgomery on early downs and in the red zone. Remember, the Lions offense generated two top-20 running backs in fantasy points per game in 2022. There’s no reason to believe they can’t do that again, especially when they upgraded both roles.
It will surely benefit Montgomery to run behind one of the NFL’s best run-blocking offensive lines, too. They generated the third-most yards before contact of any offensive line in 2022 which is far better than anything Montgomery experienced during his time with the Bears.
RB1 upside
David Montgomery has been an RB1 in fantasy football in two of the last three seasons. While it’s unlikely he reaches those heights with the presence of Gibbs, it is in his range of outcomes in Detroit. Gibbs is a rookie, remember, so if he struggles early Montgomery could really cement himself into a significant workload. More likely, though, it will be a shared backfield where Montgomery dominates the early down work and gets the red zone touches. In an offense that was in the top-half of the league in rushing yards last season and produced the league’s highest touchdown scorer, that’s a pretty awesome role to be stepping into. We should easily see a solid top-24 running back season from Montgomery. That makes him a massive value at his eighth round ADP.
More: David Montgomery: The Best Value in Fantasy Football
Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs
I liked Isiah Pacheco coming out of Rutgers last year and thought he would have an opportunity to earn a role in the Kansas City offense as a rookie. Not only did he overtake Ronald Jones in preseason, but he bumped former first round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of his starting job by mid-season. Jerick McKinnon continued to operate as the team’s primary receiving back and actually got a good amount of carries as well, but by the end of the season, Pacheco was the go-to guy between the tackles and in short yardage. From Week 10 through the super bowl, Pacheco averaged 12 fantasy points per game while scoring double-digit points in 10 of the last 12 contests.
Rookie Breakout
Pacheco scored as a top-24 running back in six of the last eight games of the season and capped off his rookie year by scoring a touchdown in the super bowl. He played 56% of the snaps in both the AFC Championship game and the super bowl. He carried the ball 10 or more times in each playoff game, including seven times in the red zone which was more than double what McKinnon got.
Atop the depth chart
Looking ahead to 2023, the team brought back McKinnon but did not add anyone of significance to the backfield. That means Pacheco is secure atop the depth chart, at least when it comes to early downs and short yardage/goal line. That’s all he needs in this offense to be a top-24 producer for fantasy football. After all, this is the Patrick Mahomes offense. They scored 61 touchdowns last season. Edwards-Helaire scored six of those in the first weeks. Now that role is Pacheco’s for a full season.
CEH PTSD?
It’s realistic to project Pacheco for 200 carries, 25 receptions, 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. And that’s not even his ceiling. I love taking him at his ADP. It feels like fantasy gamers have CEH PTSD after they were drafting him in the first round before he did a damn thing in the NFL. Now we have Pacheco who has shown us he’s good and the team trusts him, yet he’s going this late in drafts? It doesn’t make sense. I will absolutely continue to draft the starting running back for the Chiefs in the eighth round. All. Day. Long.
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