NFC East 2020 Team Stats Review
Those who have followed my writing throughout the 2020 season will know that I’m a projections guy, I released weekly content highlighting key facts and stats about play volume, pass/rush tendencies, Vegas lines, target leaders, etc – my Projections Retrospective.
Now that 2020 has drawn to a close, I’ll be spending some time reviewing the total season numbers. The goal, to be more informed about what each team did so we can better project how they’ll tackle 2021 (subject of course to coaching and personnel changes over the offseason).
If you missed it, check out my Projections Guide where I looked at some of the key league-wide numbers for 2020 and stepped through how to create your own projections.
Let’s dive in to the NFC East.
Washington Football Team
A big coaching change brought about a big change in approach for Washington, after spending 2019 trying to grind down the clock and get out of there. They threw it when they were behind and ran more plays to stay competitive. Despite the higher passing ratio, Washington had a strong desire to run the ball when gamescript allowed them to.
It looks like a three-pronged attack but make no mistake, Terry McLaurin is the dominant part of this receiving game. Both McKissic and Thomas had high volume phases through the season but neither maintained it consistently. Thomas hit his straps down the stretch but beware, it did coincide with injuries to Gibson and McLaurin. The supporting cast came in waves as they jumped from Inman to Sims to Sims to Foster to Gandy-Golden without anyone really establishing themselves.
This is not as much of a split as it appears. If you remove the games Gibson missed through injury and week one (where Gibson was settling in) then his share was over 50-percent. Peyton Barber got most of his work in those games too, including the majority of his red zone usage. Game script was an issue at times throughout the season with the negative game scripts leading to more McKissic and less Gibson, but this is Gibson’s backfield and he was the go-to back inside the red zone.
Key Takeaway: Washington want to run the ball and want to lean on their two main weapons, McLaurin and Gibson. With a dominant defense and some smart additions during the offseason, this team is setting up to play like Cleveland – run the ball and big shots downfield.
New York Giants
A dip in play volume in 2020 coincided with a new play caller and the brutal loss of their star running back but it was actually the injury to Daniel Jones later in the season that caused it. Before his injury, they were on pace to equal the 2019 volume. As for passing ratio you can tell which games the Giants won just by looking at their individual game ratios, under 50-percent in all six of their wins and over in the rest.
The question before the season was how Shepard, Engram, Tate and Slayton would fit and share the volume. Well, there’s some things we can now see. Tate is clearly the last in the pecking order of this group and Slayton has a clear role as the field stretcher (with Engram the only other player to hit 100 air yards in any game, which he only did once). If you remove the games he missed from injury, Shepard’s target share jumps to 22-percent.
Engram’s catch-percentage was poor, particularly in comparison to Shepard and Tate who were operating in the same area of the field. Likewise you would expect a much better catch rate from Dion Lewis considering the short distance his targets were travelling.
In a fairly unproductive passing offense overall, Slayton’s downfield targets often ended up providing the most opportunity for points and were therefore the most valuable
Outside of Saquon in week one there were only three occasions where a player got more than 60-percent of the team’s carries, two from Devonta Freeman and one from Wayne Gallman when Daniel Jones was injured. There wasn’t a dominant back that they felt able to lean on in Saquon’s absence.
Key Takeaway: They seem to know their gameplan – run the ball whenever they can, use Slayton downfield and rely on their middle of the field targets to move the chains. One of their big problems was their low catch rates from Engram and from Lewis out of the backfield, the return of Saquon should help the latter of those
Dallas Cowboys
When your defense is as bad as the Cowboys defense was, it’s no surprise to see a lot of offensive plays and a high passing ratio. Whilst the offense changed dramatically when Dak Prescott went down in week five, it wasn’t the cause of the passing increase. In fact it was the opposite, as the Cowboys registered a 68-percent passing ratio across the first four games.
A straightforward offense in Dallas with the three main receiving threats at wide receiver and some input from one main tight end and one main running back. Amari Cooper averaged twice as many targets in the first four games (13 per game) than he did after Prescott got injured (6 per game) but most of the receiving talent got a downgrade at that time.
Cooper and Lamb operate in a similar manner with Lamb getting a little further downfield and Gallup the deep threat with big play opportunity that manifested towards the end of the season.
The tight end position was unspectacular as Dallas was top 10 in percentage of targets to wide receivers (unsurprising given the talent).
Pollard came in towards the end of year and got many people excited but this was still the Zeke show with double digit carries in every game he played (missed one). With Dak out, quarterback rushing production was non-existent so expect this to increase again in 2021.
Key Takeaway: It’s going to be hard to imagine one ‘elite’ receiving option with the talent available but there could easily be multiple ‘very good’ options with the value pick likely to be the one who falls furthest in drafts. This will again be an offense to target
Philadelphia Eagles
A great example of regression on display here. The Eagles were first in play volume in 2019 so natural regression was likely. They still eclipsed 1,000 plays in 2020, which put them in the middle of the pack.
If you want some insight in to their struggles at wide receiver, look no further than Greg Ward as the most-targeted receiver and the only one to play every game. Add to that the number two target being Zach Ertz who only played 11 games! The Eagles were one of only six teams to not have their number one target reach 100 targets, and Ward was the lowest of those six.
Travis Fulgham was the player with the most air yards but it was still less than 800 where most teams have at least one receiver with over 1,000. He got most of his output in the middle of the season but dropped off as Jeffery and Ertz returned from injury, and Reagor’s usage increased. On reflection, the biggest impact to Fulgham’s production was the return of Ertz which resulted in an increase to Dallas Goedert’s target share.
This team had some remarkably low catch rates, including the lower aDOT (average depth of target) guys like Ertz and Sanders, and terrible YAC/R (yards after catch per reception) contributions from a number of receivers.
I broke down Miles Sanders usage in an article earlier in January, noting that his usage is much better than it first appears. If you exclude the games he missed, he’s up to 54-percent of the carries. And if you just look at the running back carries (excl quarterbacks and receivers) then it’s 79-percent. With Wentz under centre, the volume of team rush attempts was significantly down on 2019 and that’s what impacted Sanders numbers. With Hurts, his market share of carries dipped but the overall rushing volume increased.
Quarterback rushing was a key factor in this team, with Hurts mobility in the back part of the season leading to much more usage. Don’t sleep on Wentz though, who does have a tendency to take away some of those red zone looks.
