AFC East 2020 Team Stats Review
Those who have followed my writing throughout the 2020 season will know that I’m a projections guy, I released weekly content highlighting key facts and stats about play volume, pass/rush tendencies, Vegas lines, target leaders, etc – my Projections Retrospective.
Now that 2020 has drawn to a close, I’ll be spending some time reviewing the total season numbers. The goal, to be more informed about what each team did so we can better project how they’ll tackle 2021 (subject of course to coaching and personnel changes over the offseason).
If you missed it, check out my Projections Guide where I looked at some of the key league-wide numbers for 2020 and stepped through how to create your own projections.
Let’s dive in to the AFC East.
Buffalo Bills
After a consistent approach through 2018 and 2019, the Bills took a jump in overall play volume and in the ratio of passing plays in 2020. A definite change in philosophy as Josh Allen earned the confidence of those around him.
Looking at the key receiving metrics, it’s no surprise to see Stefon Diggs leading the way across the board with a 30-percent target share and nearly twice as many air yards as any other player. Gabriel Davis was the deep threat when he played and Cole Beasley was the shorter target.
Very much a three-way split in the rushing stats with a slight exaggeration of numbers due to Zack Moss missing three games. Taking those games away, the rush attempt split would have been 35-percent (Singletary), 34-percent (Moss), and 28-percent (Allen). When it comes to the red zone, Singletary is left out in the cold more often than not.
Key Takeaway: Listen to the actions of the team. The capital spent on Stefon Diggs was a sign of their intent to be more pass-heavy and Diggs’ talent made it work (not to mention a huge improvement in Josh Allen)
Miami Dolphins
Overall play volume has increased marginally on 2019 following a huge jump from 2018. This makes sense in the context of their continued improvement as a team on both sides of the ball. When it comes to passing volume, their 57-percent pass ratio was actually a decrease on 2019 as they leaned more on their run game in positive gamescript situations. This led to a reduction of more than 50 passing plays and an increase of nearly 80 rushing plays.
Perhaps a result of injuries to their receiving corps throughout the season, the Wide Receivers only received 55-percent of the targets in Miami (for comparison, Buffalo targeted their Wide Receivers 75-percent of the time), and the distribution is spread out. Before getting injured, Preston Williams was the deep threat, a role largely taken over by Jakeem Grant in his absence. There is no receiver who has a clearly dominant role in this offense, be it through target share or red zone usage.
Another split workload on the ground. In the first part of the season this was a genuine split but as Gaskin and then Ahmed emerged, there was a more dominant back in most games. The overall split we see here then is reflective of Gaskin missing time.
Key Takeaway: If Miami can establish a lead in games, they are happy to lean on the run to see it through, and happy for that to be one main back. This is a backfield to monitor going in to 2021.
As for the receiving game, if they don’t add a dominant receiver in the offseason then there isn’t a receiver whose volume I trust. Until he got injured, Preston Williams had one of the best WOPR (Weighted Opportunity) on his team and was consistently the main red zone target – he’s the receiver to own
New England Patriots
Oh how the kings of the AFC East have fallen. With Brady under center, the Patriots consistently ran more than 1,000 plays across the season. In 2020 this dropped by 125 plays, that’s huge. And, unsurprisingly given what we saw from Cam Newton, their pass ratio also took a big dip. Depending on who takes over at QB in the offseason, I’d expect this to bounce back in 2021.
This is spread out all over the place and again reflects the clear lack of dominant players in this receiving room. There were no deep threats, the Tight Ends were non-existent and the Running Backs were featured heavily. Again, all confirming what our eyes told us during the season. There were only four times all season that a player had a game with 100 receiving yards and there was very little on offer in the red zone.
Another heavy running back split situation. Damien Harris was the main man for a while but only once topped 50-percent of rush attempts and he never had to deal with all of his competition being available at the same time. Harris and Michel took the field together twice as Michel was returning from injury and they split their carries 60/40 in both games. The red zone was Cam’s domain with a clearly dominant share of everything that happened on the ground down there.
Key Takeaway: As with Buffalo one key player has made a monumental difference to the way this team plays, but this time in a negative way. Unless they make a big splash in the draft or free agency, there’s no-one on this team you’ll be able to trust to produce useful volume
New York Jets
Fairly consistent year to year here, one of the lower volume teams around. Despite mostly trailing in games, they’re also consistently run-heavy and slightly increased that reliance on the ground game from 2019 to 2020.
Jamison Crowder was the main volume guy when he was available but it didn’t lead to a whole lot of yards. Outside of Crowder, pretty much all other receivers are deep threats and they’ve struggled to establish a dominant number one. New York barely uses their Tight Ends, even in the red zone.
What can I tell you, it’s all about Frank Gore. La’Mical Perine had a crack at various stages and Ty Johnson had a big week when others were out, but no-one took a hold of a lead role. The red zone usage was dire, as Ty Johnson took 33-percent of rushes inside the 5 yard line…in one game.
