2020 NFL Free Agency: The Fantasy Football Winners and Losers
With most of the major 2020 NFL free agency in the rearview mirror, we can dissect some of the winners and losers of this year’s offseason so far. As always, we call it our Sizzle/Fizzle. Naturally, plenty of quarterbacks made our list. But, we also voyage across the board on offense and investigate plenty of runners and receivers. You can call it forecasting or foreshadowing. Either way, get ready to build up your knowledge base!
Before jumping in, I realize many of you are here for a diversion from the stream of news concerning the pandemic. I will attempt to provide a diversion and some tidbits you can use in your strategy sessions. But I would be remiss if I did not send best wishes to everyone out there. Stay safe and hope for better days ahead.
Sizzle
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals – Everyone makes mistakes. Some mistakes are generally insignificant. Other errors, like trading one of the best receivers in the NFL who happens to be on a Hall of Fame trajectory, are appalling. But Murray and the Cardinals profit from the massive ego of Houston dictator Bill O’Brien. “Buffoon” Bill needlessly sends DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona for some a second-round pick and then some. The presence of Hopkins ensures a big growth spurt for Murray in his second season. Ending 2020 as the overall fantasy QB1 exists within the range of possibilities for him.
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Maybe before his time in Tampa ends, Brady will finally display significantly diminished skills. But for now, even if Brady slips some, a superior supporting cast offsets the decline. Aligning with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin gives Brady a pair of aces. And tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate also have more to offer than the post-Gronk options New England trotted out last year. Fantasy and reality differ, which happens to be why the G.O.A.T. ends last season as a QB2. A modestly diminished Brady maintains good QB1 odds in 2020.
Tom Brady to Tampa Bay – Tribute & Fantasy Analysis
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills – Already a solid fantasy quarterback thanks to his rushing ability, Allen now gets to align with Stefon Diggs. The former Viking gives Allen a legitimate number one target for the first time in his career, which now enters season three. Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley represent a nice trio of receivers for Allen. Additionally, tight end Dawson Knox could grow in his second season. And Devin Singletary provides a quality weapon out of the backfield. In the fantasy football community, there has long been discussion about receivers breaking out in their third season. Apply that theory to Allen, who had a mini-breakout last year and will have a major one this year.
Stefon Diggs Traded to Bills: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Gardner Minshew, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars – Perhaps Jacksonville seeks an alternative at some point. For now, the Mustache remains the man on the First Coast. Although Minshew had some rookie moments, he also tossed 21 touchdowns vs. six interceptions. The Mustache also moves pretty well on the ground. In terms of this year’s free-agent signees, Tyler Eifert does not move the needle as much as others. All the same, Eifert provides an upgrade at Jacksonville’s weakest skill position. New offensive coordinator Jay Gruden should provide a quality sounding board and scheme. Minshew may not evolve into a QB1. But if Jacksonville makes no further moves, he will be a quality choice in 2QB formats.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Carolina Panthers – For the first time since his time in Minnesota, Teddy emerges atop the depth chart. Bridgewater has always been more of a tactician than a mad bomber. That skill set meshes well with Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore. Can Bridgewater build chemistry with the likes of Robby Anderson on long balls? Will tight end Ian Thomas take it to the next level with Greg Olsen now in Seattle? Those are legitimate questions. Fantasy owners can take comfort in knowing the core in Carolina makes Bridgewater an intriguing streamer at a minimum.
Todd Gurley, RB, Atlanta Falcons – Last year, the Rams largely focused on limiting Gurley’s touches. He finished with 33 fewer carries and 28 fewer receptions despite appearing in one more game. His albatross of a contract prompts Los Angeles to let him go. Atlanta happily signed Gurley, who played his college ball at Georgia. Devonta Freeman’s gone and holdovers Ito Smith, Brian Hill, and Qadree Ollison are less than stellar. Given that, Gurley’s homecoming could be one to celebrate as long as his health cooperates. The Falcons might select a back in April, but head coach Dan Quinn must deliver a winner to survive. A win or else philosophy translates to less load management for Todd.
Darrell Henderson/Malcolm Brown, RBs, Los Angeles Rams – Gurley going back to Georgia opens up the Los Angeles backfield. Did the Henderson hype come one year too early? His rookie season disappointed owners who banked on him being a bargain later in drafts. But the speedster out of Memphis would not be the first player who broke out in year two. Devonta Freeman, for example, produces 473 total yards and two touchdowns as a rookie. In his sophomore season, Freeman generates 1,634 total yards and 14 touchdowns. Brown stands in Henderson’s way. He scored five touchdowns on 69 carries and remained Gurley’s backup despite Henderson’s presence. This could easily turn into a committee situation. Henderson would have the most upside, especially in PPR. Brown would be more of a touchdown threat.
Jordan Howard, RB, Miami Dolphins – In this era of the NFL, running backs are considered replaceable, especially ones with limitations in the passing game. Howard does not offer much as a receiver. Partly because of that, Chicago and Philadelphia have moved on from him. But so often in fantasy football, situations dictate everything. Miami had the worst running game in the NFL last year. Ryan Fitzpatrick was the team’s leading rusher! Howard steps in as an immediate starter for a team on the rise. Sure, Miami could still bring in someone like Chris Thompson to catch passes. And it would be surprising if the Dolphins did not draft a back. Nevertheless, at the moment, Howard looks like a potential value pick later in drafts.
David Johnson, RB, Houston Texans – I will be honest and admit I have reservations about putting Johnson here. His final stretch in Arizona epitomizes doom and gloom. Hobbling and wobbling and dropping to third on the depth chart, Buffoon Bill still believes enough in Johnson to make him the centerpiece of the infamous DeAndre Hopkins deal. So if David can get healthy and rebound, he will anchor Houston’s ground game. Conversely, the Texans also have Duke Johnson. Not a lead back, Duke will still draw some work in passing situations. Between the Duke, Deshaun Watson’s rushing prowess, and his diminishing skill set, Johnson typifies the ultimate gamble. There is no denying, though, that he happens to be in a better spot for success.
Trade Alert!: The Fantasy Impact of the DeAndre Hopkins-David Johnson Deal
Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings – The departure of Stefon Diggs sets up Thielen for a major comeback. Injuries cost Thielen a good chunk of 2019, but once the playoffs rolled around, a healthy Thielen caught seven passes for 129 yards when the Vikings upset New Orleans. Minnesota has signed Tajae Sharpe and should further address their wide receiver need in April. Tight ends Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith are quality weapons capable of soaking up targets. Nonetheless, Thielen heads into 2020 as Minnesota’s clear number one receiver. Even in an offense that skews heavily to the run, I think Adam earns enough targets to tango into WR1 territory.
Breshad Perriman, WR, New York Jets – Perriman’s hot streak at the end of the season nets him a deal with the Jets. And Perriman picks a pretty good landing spot. With Robby Anderson leaving, the only holdover of note among New York’s wide receivers is Jamison Crowder. At tight end, Ryan Griffin was a pleasant surprise last season and Chris Herndon hopes to come back from a lost campaign. Overall, no one exists on the roster who should scare the daylights of Perriman truthers. While you can expect the Jets to beef up their corps of pass-catchers before the summer, Perriman presents promise without a crazy draft price.
Randall Cobb, WR, Houston Texans – Yes, Buffoon Bill’s acquisition of Cobb creates further criticism of the embattled Texans leader. In defense of Cobb, he performed relatively well in Dallas last year. Plus, his competition for targets on the Houston roster is not fearsome. Will Fuller regularly headlines the injury report. Kenny Stills happens to be more of a second/third receiver than a lead option. Darren Fells scored seven touchdowns last year, but Fells nor any of the other Houston tight ends project as high volume receivers. If Cobb stays healthy, he could be a nice bargain later in drafts, especially in PPR.
Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons – With the emergence of Mark Andrews, Baltimore felt they could shop Hurst. Atlanta acquires Hurst after losing Austin Hooper in free agency. And Hayden lands in a pretty good spot. Despite the presence of Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, Hooper was targeted 97 times by Matt Ryan. One of Hurst’s highlights in Baltimore was a 61-yard touchdown last season against Buffalo. With the presence of Atlanta’s duo out wide, defenses will not be gearing up to shutdown Hurst. Consider Hurst as a TE2 who could morph into a low-end TE1.
Blake Jarwin, TE, Dallas Cowboys – Jason Witten heads to Las Vegas for the likely finale of his distinguished career. That enables Jarwin to move into a prime role in a potent passing attack, especially after getting a three-year contract extension. Witten was targeted 42 more times than Jarwin last year. Yet, the veteran only scored one more touchdown than Jarwin. Together, they found the end zone seven times. The loss of the aforementioned Randall Cobb also benefits Blake. Currently, the Cowboys do not have a capable third wide receiver. Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup cap Jarwin’s upside. Nevertheless, the setup is in place for Jarwin to blossom. Jarwin scored three touchdowns against the Giants in the final game of the 2018 season.
Jace Sternberger, TE, Green Bay Packers – Jimmy Graham’s unremarkable frozen tundra tenure reaches the end with Graham heading to the archrival Bears. His departure opens up a lot of possibilities for Sternberger. A third-round selection last year from Texas A&M, the former Aggie spent a good portion of his rookie season on injured reserve. In a potential sign of things to come, Sternberger scored a touchdown in the NFC championship game. Green Bay added Devin Funchess, who can be a force in the red zone. On the flip side, they lost Geronimo Allison in free agency. Regardless, Davante Adams remains the only sure thing for Aaron Rodgers. If Sternberger finds a way to earn Aaron’s trust, he potentially moves from sleeper to starter.
Fizzle
Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans – With Buffoon Bill taking away his all-world receiver, Watson now finds himself with a weakened troop of receivers. I say that realizing I made somewhat of a case for Cobb earlier. Truthfully, what’s left in Houston is not awful, just middling. Watson may end up being a bargain on draft day because his ADP will drop. On the other hand, Watson was one of the few quarterbacks in recent seasons worth reaching for on draft day. That was because he could carry teams to wins at times. Those occasions are not going to happen nearly as often.
Sam Darnold, QB, New York Jets – Perhaps Breshad Perriman proves to be a reasonable facsimile of Robby Anderson. Maybe the Jets strike it big during the draft. Hopefully, Chris Herndon produces a nice comeback. If all of that happens, Darnold provides more answers than questions. At the moment, a case can be made New York has not done enough to support their young quarterback. And to think I did that without even mentioning Adam Gase! Now entering his pivotal third season, a lot needs to happen for Sam to shine.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings – As stated above, Minnesota will aim for further reinforcements at receiver. A deep rookie class gives them a decent chance at finding a legitimate replacement for Stefon Diggs. But anything short of an instant sensation symbolizes a definite downgrade from Diggs. Cousins holds firm as a reasonable QB2. However, he appears unlikely to approach QB1 status outside of occasional streaming opportunities.
Philip Rivers, QB, Indianapolis Colts – The veteran quarterback seemingly hits a wall in 2019 with the Chargers. This despite the fact Rivers works with a bountiful supporting cast featuring Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Hunter Henry. Rivers moves to the Midwest and reunites with Colts head coach Frank Reich. Reich was previously the offensive coordinator for the Chargers. In theory, Reich knows how to get the best out of Rivers. However, the overall constituents of the Indianapolis offense are not as strong as what Rivers left behind in Los Angeles. It is hard to see Rivers journeying back to QB1 status in his new home.
Cam Newton/Jameis Winston/Andy Dalton, big question marks – Three former starters find themselves in the NFL’s version of suspended animation. Newton possesses the best odds of landing another starting job while Winston and Dalton look likely to slot into second-string roles. Until any of them land somewhere, they are off the fantasy radar. And depending on their eventual roles, the radar may not be able to detect them.
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns – Rest assured, I am not trying to pull a hot take out of nowhere and criticize Chubb. He happens to be one of the best backs in the NFL. I have tons of respect for his talent. However, despite Chubb being the brightest light of the Cleveland offense last season, his numbers sunk when Kareem Hunt came off suspension. With no one seemingly showing interest in Hunt in free agency, Chubb’s ceiling lowers. Nick now happens to be more of a low-level RB1 than a high-level one.
Royce Freeman, RB, Denver Broncos – With Melvin Gordon making his way to the Mile High City, Freeman becomes the third wheel in the Denver backfield. Not exactly a Rolls Royce in his first two seasons, averaging 3.9 yards per carry, Freeman needs to be traded to recoup volume and value. Who knows if that will happen anytime soon. Phillip Lindsay also takes a hit with Gordon’s arrival. However, Lindsay should at least maintain flex value.
Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots – With best buddy Tom Brady off to Tampa, Edelman’s numbers are guaranteed to decline. Whoever ends up as New England’s starting quarterback will not be as good as Brady. And they are not going to have the incredible chemistry Brady and Edelman had. Turning 34 in May, Edelman has been one of the toughest players in the NFL. Injuries look likely to fully catch up with him in the near future. If another owner in your league gets seduced by name familiarity, let them take the plunge on Edelman.
Curtis Samuel, WR, Carolina Panthers – A disappointment in 2019, Samuel’s chances of rebounding took a big hit when Carolina added Robby Anderson. New Carolina head coach Matt Rhule has no connection to Samuel and coached Anderson at Temple. So with Samuel already behind D.J. Moore, Christian McCaffrey, and Anderson in the pecking order, the road to glory for Curtis is clogged with traffic. New starting tight end Ian Thomas happens to be another threat for targets. Undoubtedly, Samuel could have a few big plays and games on occasion. But in the big picture, his fantasy value looks limited to best-ball formats.
Jared Cook, TE, New Orleans Saints – After a slow start with the Saints last year, Cook emerged and gave Drew Brees a reliable outlet besides Michael Thomas. Cook’s inclusion on this list is not a reflection on him. However, with New Orleans adding Emmanuel Sanders in free agency, Cook’s looks dwindle. He can still provide TE1 value, albeit on the lower end of the scale these days.
Vance McDonald, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers – The components of the Pittsburgh offense earn a mulligan for 2019 given Ben Roethlisberger’s injury. However, whatever path McDonald had to relevance in 2020 will now be blocked by Eric Ebron. We all know Ebron battles bouts of inconsistency. He also offers boom potential as evidenced by his 2018 season where he scored 14 touchdowns. McDonald settles for second banana status, but he could be involved enough to keep Ebron away from TE1 range.
David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns – With Cleveland’s acquisition of Austin Hooper, Njoku’s perceived upside goes by the wayside. Except for flashes, he’s never really shown that upside anyways. With Hooper, the Browns are opting for safety over instability. Cleveland could opt to move on from Njoku at some point. Anyone hanging onto Njoku in dynasty has to be hoping for that.
And now, we look forward to the draft!
