Yahoo! vs ESPN ADP: Quarterbacks
We’re well in to draft season now and with one full weekend to go before the start of the season (at last!), the more casual drafters are starting to get their player lists together and work out who they want to draft. The even more casual drafters are going to rock up to the draft and just draft straight off the standard draft rankings in whichever platform they’re using.
With that in mind, I’ve studied Yahoo and ESPN to pick out some of the key differences in ADP for quarterbacks. I’ve also compared them to the industry experts and my own rankings for this year.
Why do this? Well, drafting is all about value and if you can identify the values in your draft then you’re going to have a leg-up on your league-mates. And if you have multiple leagues then, like me, you may be using both platforms this year. Knowing the nuances of the two different systems can really help when it comes to draft day and I for one am going to use this to influence my draft.
I examined running backs, wide receivers and tight ends in parts one, two and three of this series so if you missed them, go back and give them a read.
In the final part of this series, we’re in to quarterbacks.
Deshaun Watson
- Yahoo QB6
- ESPN QB3
- Yardsper Current Ranking QB4
- FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) QB6
- My Current Ranking QB3
As with the other positional reviews, the guys at the top of the list only have a few spots between them. However, those few spots can make a big difference and can mean multiple rounds of your draft.
Deshaun Watson is widely viewed in the 2nd tier of quarterbacks with Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray. And it really does seem to be a matter of personal preference.
In ESPN, he’s at the top of this group of quarterbacks in ADP and if you believe in Watson (like I do) then this is the spot for him. But you’ll have to pay up to get him and that likely means you’re passing on top talent at other skill positions.
On Yahoo, he’s going at QB6, at the end of that tier. In 2019, only Dak scored more on a per-game basis from this tier and in 2018, Watson finished ahead of all of these guys. In 2017 he finished first on a per-game basis, albeit on an injury-shortened seven games. Prescott has a huge ceiling in his offence but has only done it once, Wilson is an amazing real-life quarterback but if the Seahawks are going to keep running the ball again then his ceiling is capped, and Murray is in his sophomore year (yet for some reason we’re ready to anoint him as one of the best fantasy QBs available – who drafted Baker Mayfield last year?).
If I can get Watson at the end of that tier in Yahoo leagues, I’d be thrilled.
Tom Brady
- Yahoo QB10
- ESPN QB7
- Yardsper Current Ranking QB9
- FantasyPros ECR QB11
- My Current Ranking QB14
Tom Brady had an incredible run of games at the start of 2019, scoring over 27 fantasy points in four of his first six games. But he finished as QB14 overall (QB22 on a per-game basis). In 2017 he was QB11 (QB17 on a per-game basis).
I get it, he’s now on a Bruce Arians led Buccaneers team that loves to sling it and produced the fantasy QB2 last year. And he has two of the top pass-catchers in the league in addition to his long-time go-to wrestling Tight End. But it’s not like he didn’t throw the ball plenty in New England, in fact he was 4th in pass attempts last year (a reminder that he was still only QB14). And he’s getting old, didn’t you hear?
He could absolutely get another lease of life and those pass catchers could absolutely help with his second coming, but at QB7 in ESPN you have to draft him at his ceiling. If you truly believe in him this year then ADP of 10th among quarterbacks on Yahoo might be worth a go but I’m staying well clear in ESPN.
Josh Allen
- Yahoo QB7
- ESPN QB11
- Yardsper Current Ranking QB10
- FantasyPros ECR QB7
- My Current Ranking QB7
Josh Allen has almost the opposite rankings to Brady and is higher in Yahoo.
Allen finished as QB9 in 2019 and flashed incredible upside at the end of 2018. Here’s the fundamental problem with Allen, he really isn’t a good thrower of a football. In 2019 (according to playerprofiler), he ranked 33rd in True Completion rate (there are only 32 NFL teams remember), 46th in Red Zone Completion (still only 32 NFL teams) and 35th in Accuracy Rating (how many NFL teams?).
What bolsters Allen is his rushing. He ranked 2nd in QB carries and Red Zone carries, and 3rd in Rushing Yards. He ranked 1st in Rushing touchdowns. That rushing production makes a huge difference and that’s what puts him in the top 10. He’s also added one of the best deep ball receivers in the league so there’s hope that the passing production can improve.
For those who don’t know, Allen’s rushing touchdowns are somewhat misleading. Five of his nine rushing touchdowns came after Frank Gore had the first go. Only when Gore failed did Allen take it on himself. You better believe that this is where Zack Moss is going to come in this year and if Allen develops a little as a passer then his scrambling may decrease and his rushing production generally takes a hit. That will be a huge problem for your fantasy team.
At QB7 in Yahoo, this is where I have him ranked. But that’s a risky play and any downturn in rushing is going to make that an overpay. On ESPN, I’m much more likely to take a punt on that rushing upside at QB10.
Gardner Minshew
- Yahoo QB15
- ESPN QB24
- Yardsper Current Ranking QB24
- FantasyPros ECR QB22
- My Current Ranking QB23
Oh Gardner Minshew, the cult hero. The 1.01 of fantasy drafts for anyone looking to win some beer (who the hell is Matthew Berry?!). Minshew came out of nowhere last year and showed some flashes of upside. He got over 20 fantasy points in 8 games and showed a connection with DJ Chark. Like Allen, his upside comes from his rushing, ranking 5th in QB rushing yards and carries per game.
His passing stats aren’t the best (27th in true completion rate) but he should take a step up in his second year and the Jaguars are going to find themselves behind a lot so he’s going to need to throw it. Couple that with his rushing ability and you can see the upside. He’s also got ZERO competition for that starting role so you don’t have that black-cloud backup lurking over his shoulder.
But QB14 on Yahoo is bold, that’s very early and there’s a number of starting QBs that would be far more reliable than Minshew. With an ADP of No.24 among quarterbacks on ESPN, that’s a value that’s much more worthy of a punt on the upside.
Phew, I got through a Minshew blurb without mentioning the mustache…dammit!
Jared Goff
- Yahoo QB28
- ESPN QB19
- Yardsper Current Ranking QB18
- FantasyPros ECR QB16
- My Current Ranking QB12
Jared Goff is one of the most intriguing Quarterbacks in the league. He went from QB12 in 2017 to QB6 in 2018 (561 attempts, 364 completions, 4,688 yards and 32 touchdowns). But in 2019 he dropped to QB11.
Wait, hang on, he was bad wasn’t he?! Yet he still finished QB11. He threw the ball an absolute ton (626 attempts) and got almost the same number of yards as he did in 2018. But he only scored 22 touchdowns. On passing yards alone, he was 3rd but he was 16th in touchdowns with a 3.5-percent TD rate. That’s low. Case Keenum was at 4.5-percent, Marcus Mariota was at 4.4-percent, Baker Mayfield was at 4.1-percent and Jacoby Brissett was at 4-percent. That tells you where Goff’s rate sits.
So it’s not hard to imagine that TD rate coming back up and when it does, Goff will easily finish above where he’s being drafted. He doesn’t have the rushing upside but he’s still going to throw it a lot and has a plethora of top pass catchers to make that happen.
I have him getting back in to the top 12 but I don’t need to draft him there. In Yahoo I can get him at QB19, that’s stealing. And at QB28 in ESPN, that’s pure insanity.
Derek Carr
- Yahoo QB18
- ESPN QB28
- Yardsper Current Ranking QB29
- FantasyPros ECR QB28
- My Current Ranking QB29
Daniel Jones
- Yahoo QB27
- ESPN QB15
- Yardsper Current Ranking QB22
- FantasyPros ECR QB14
- My Current Ranking QB19
As with my other positional reviews, I’m finishing off with a couple of players who have some of the biggest discrepancies between the two platforms.
Derek Carr has always been a polarising player. Very reliable and had one MVP-challenging season until he suffered injury. He’s accurate but he doesn’t throw it deep and he doesn’t have rushing upside. But he now has a number of new receivers, some of which should help rack up yards after the catch (those yards still go on the QBs stat line!). He finished as QB17 in 2019 with a low touchdown rate and QB18 in 2018. As noted, it wouldn’t take much for him to improve on this position but he’s going as QB18 in Yahoo and that might be a bit too soon for me. At QB28 in ESPN on the other hand, that could prove to be fantastic value.
See Our 2020 Fantasy Draft Rankings!
Daniel Jones only played 12 full games in 2019 but on a per-game basis was QB9. He was somewhat boom or bust with four games over 30 fantasy points and seven games with fewer than 20 points. Jones is another QB with some accuracy issues (23rd in Accuracy rating, 32nd in Red Zone completion) but with rushing upside (7th in rushing yards despite only playing 12 games). He’s going in to his second year so you’d expect some improvements, particularly if his pass-catchers can stay much healthier than they did last year. He’s currently going on the high side of consensus at 15th of the quarterbacks in ESPN ADP so if you believe in him you’ll need to put your money where your mouth is. In Yahoo, at QB27, that’s a price you can take a risk on and cut ties if he doesn’t work out.
That’s the end of my positional reviews and if you missed them, go back and read the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends reviews. Good luck in your drafts, look out for those values and do what you can to exploit these price differentials across the two platforms.
