3 Wide Receivers Who Present Massive Values In 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts
Prime fantasy football draft season for 2023 is fast approaching. The real sickos are already drafting. If that’s you—and considering you’re reading this article it probably is—then you can take advantage of these three wide receivers who are massive values at their current ADP. Exploit the market by drafting them at their current cost before it corrects.
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More: How to build projections in 2023
Chris Godwin, Buccaneers
Tom Brady is out and Baker Mayfield is in. That has created a doomsday narrative around Chris Godwin’s fantasy football outlook. And sure, one is the greatest quarterback to ever walk the earth and the other has had three teams decide they don’t want him in the last 12 months. But, the Godwin fear has swung too far. Mayfield played well down the stretch with the Rams last year which gives us some hope that he can command a quality offense. Now he gets a fresh start with the best wide receiver duo he’s ever played with and an offensive line that is healed after an injury-riddled 2022 campaign.
Slot Guy
While there is optimism that Mayfield can play well in this environment, he certainly has limitations to his game that can’t be argued against. Like his struggles to consistently push the ball to the boundary. Instead, he tends to lean on his guys that are operating in between the numbers. That plays right into Godwin’s hands as he took 57.5% of his snaps from the slot in 2022. Back in his Browns days, Mayfield’s tendency to pepper his slot receivers propelled Jarvis Landry to one of the best seasons of his career. We know Godwin is a much more dynamic player than Landry ever was, especially now that he has a full season under his belt since his torn ACL.
Healthy
Remember, Godwin suffered his knee injury late in the 2021 season. We didn’t think he would be ready to start 2022 and while he was on the field in Week 1, it was clear the team should have given him more time to recover. Even while missing multiple games and not looking like himself until at least mid-season, Godwin managed to set career highs in targets (142) and receptions (104). He was difficult to defend with a top-20 route win rate (PlayerProfiler.com) and a 14th ranked 55.6% contested catch success rate (PlayerProfiler). Godwin continued to be one of the most dynamic threats after the catch as well with nearly 500 yards post-reception which ranked sixth in the NFL.
Target Competition
Godwin will continue to be a target hog in 2023 despite the presence of Mike Evans. We’ve already touched on Mayfield’s struggles to consistently get the ball down the field and outside the numbers which won’t bode well for Evans as his game is focused in those areas. Even if Mayfield suddenly became Jameis Winston as a downfield passer, Evans has shown a steady decline in efficiency over the last few seasons. Without Brady, he might be toast. So outside of that, there really isn’t much of a threat for target competition for Godwin.
Pass-First
Another case that anti-Godwin drafters have made against him is that without Brady, this team is going to become a run-heavy offense. To that I say not so fast. The Bucs were average at best last year. Without Brady, they’re probably going to be pretty bad. What do bad teams typically have to do to try to stay competitive and to rally comebacks? Pass the ball. Of course, there’s no chance they come anywhere close to the more than 750 pass attempts that Brady put up last season. But an above league average pass rate is more likely than not.
Don’t believe me? Then take the Bucs’ own actions into account. They released Leonard Fournette at the start of free agency and did absolutely nothing to replace him. Their only additions at that position were Chase Edmonds (a pass-catching back) and an undrafted Sean Tucker. That leaves Rachaad White clearly in the driver’s seat. What is White best known for? His receiving skills. You don’t think the Bucs are aware they had the league’s lowest rushing yards per game in 2022 on top of the worst rushing expected points added (EPA) per play and lowest explosive run rate? (Fantasy Alarm) Yet, they did nothing to try to fix that because they know they are going to have to lean on the passing game again in 2023.
Bottom Line
The bottom line is, Godwin is a great value at his current ADP in June Fantasy Football drafts. Whatever inefficiency he might face with Mayfield at quarterback is already baked into his cost and then some. He has very little target competition on an offense poised to pass the ball at a high rate with a quarterback who leans on his slot receivers. On top of that, Godwin has now had a full season and offseason after the 2021 ACL tear so we know he will be back to full form for the duration of the 2023 season. Let’s not forget, he was WR7 in fantasy points per game in 2021 before the injury. He was WR15 in 2020 and in 2019 (pre-Brady), he was WR2. Draft Godwin in the fourth round with confidence and know you just committed highway robbery.
Strategy: Chasing Week Winners, Not League Winners
Brandin Cooks, Cowboys
The Cowboys passing offense went through CeeDee Lamb last season which propelled his big breakout. But that wasn’t exactly optimal for real life football. It seemed like any time Lamb was taken away by the defense, quarterback Dak Prescott was in big trouble. His tight end was average, Michael Gallup couldn’t move, and there wasn’t really anyone else to turn to. When Noah Brown is your next best option, you’re not going anywhere. To solve that problem, Dallas traded their 2023 fifth-round pick and a 2024 sixth-round pick to the Texans for Brandin Cooks.
WR2
Cooks gives the Cowboys and Presscott the No.2 wide receiver they desperately needed. Unlike the guys that were out there last year, Cooks can separate, get open in all areas of the field, and make plays. Cooks had a 43.8% Route Win Rate last season and was top-20 in win rate vs man coverage (PlayerProfiler). He was even better the year before when he went over 1,000 yards on 90 receptions with a rookie Davis Mills at quarterback.
Target Volume
Cooks has been one of the most consistent producers in both real life and fantasy football for the entirety of his career. He’s topped 1,000 yards with every team he’s played for and has been the WR22 or better seven times. With a massive quarterback upgrade and a far better team situation, Cooks is poised for another productive season. He should have no trouble finding enough volume with both Dalton Schultz and Noah Brown departing in free agency, leaving behind a combined 29.7% target share and 162 total targets.
ADP
The departure of Ezekiel Elliott will also play into Cooks’ favor as the team loses its incentive to run the ball. They are built to pass and should be more efficient in doing so thanks to the addition of Cooks. Somehow Cooks is being drafted behind guys like Kadarius Toney, George Pickens, Jahan Dotson, Quentin Johnston, and Gabe Davis. He’s going in the same area as Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore, and Michael Thomas. Cooks should out-produce each and every one of those guys. Take advantage and draft him now before he starts making plays in training camp and his ADP adjusts.
Diontae Johnson, Steelers
Diontae Johnson was the WR22 in fantasy points per game in 2020 and then followed that up with a WR8 season in 2021. However, he proved to be one of the biggest busts in fantasy football in 2022 when he finished as the WR39. Part of that was due to playing with a rookie quarterback on a bad team with a bad offensive line. It surely wasn’t for a lack of volume—he was seventh in the NFL with 147 targets. Only Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, and Travis Kelce had more.
The Touchdown Thing
Johnson’s inability to find the end zone really made it difficult to hit any sort of ceiling from a fantasy perspective. In fact, he set the record for most targets without a touchdown in NFL history. If we only count receptions and receiving yards, Johnson would have been the WR20 in PPR scoring. But a stat like that feels super fluky and regression should play in his favor. After all, he did see 18 red zone targets which were top-10 among wide receivers and 14 end zone looks. The zero touchdown thing won’t happen again.
Steelers offense
The good news is, Johnson performed well within his own offense. He ranked 13th in the NFL with a 27% target share. He had 49 more targets than the next Steeler (Pat Freiermuth) and 63 more than George Pickens. While Johnson is known for his short and intermediate-focused route tree, he did rank 19th in deep targets. He was also No.2 in unrealized air yards.
After reviewing his 2022 season, we can safely chalk it up to a couple factors: poor quarterback play and the worst touchdown luck of all time. It’s not a surprise that any wide receiver would struggle with a rookie under center. JJ Zachariason recently did a study detailing just how much rookie signal-callers pull down their pass catchers. There’s a non-zero chance that Kenny Pickett takes a major step forward in his second season and throws more catchable, on-target passes, and operates a far more efficient offense.
2023 Outlook
There’s also zero chance that Johnson goes another season without scoring a touchdown. His volume has been consistent for three-straight seasons so assuming that continues to hover around the 145-150 mark in 2023, Johnson’s touchdown numbers should normalize. So similar volume plus higher efficiency, plus 7-8 touchdowns should equal a big-time bounce-back season for Diontae Johnson.
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