What Are We Doing with James Conner in Dynasty?
James Conner 2024 Dynasty Value
The expiration date for success as a running back in the NFL creeps lower and lower each season, it seems. Before long, if a guy coming out of college is not under the legal drinking age, he is of no use to your dynasty roster, right? Maybe that is counterintuitive. Fantasy managers appreciate ignoring the fact that most NFL franchises are veering to a backfield duo (or trio). This should actually increase the shelf life of backs with an above-average skillset. Arizona’s James Conner just had his best season at the ripe old age of 28, so what is his dynasty value in 2024 and beyond?
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Change of Scenery
The Erie, PA native had four rather ho-hum years for the Pittsburgh Steelers. That is, except for 2018, where he shot to the upper echelon of the rankings with an RB6 finish. This was despite rushing for just 973 yards. On the season, however, Conner found paydirt a combined 13 times and caught 55 passes. In three other seasons in Pittsburgh combined, he amassed 1,329 total yards rushing.
Fast forward to signing a three-year, $21 million contract with the Cardinals. He was back at it again with the touchdowns, finding the endzone for a whopping 18 combined scores. That was good enough to land him at RB5. He rounded out the last two seasons as RB19 and RB18, respectively, on a pair of bad teams.
Over the course of three seasons, Conner has averaged 858 yards rushing, 36.6 receptions, and 11.7 touchdowns combined. Suppose you dial back the 2018 rushing TD total to his average of 7 over the next two seasons. That still equates to nine combined trips to the promised land per year. In the final five weeks of 2023, he averaged 10.98 PPR points over his weekly projected number. He was hitting on 23.86 PPG. Somewhere, Conner owners are still whispering “league winner.”
Where He Goes, Injuries Follow
The biggest question mark about the impending 29-year-old’s reliability is his injury history. He has been hindered by a multitude of ailments and has never played a full season. 15 games in 2018 followed by a pair of 13-start seasons is more indicative of what is to be expected. Should he maintain that level, owners can stomach a few missed affairs if he continues to have the numbers to back it up.
Of course, it always comes back to age. 29 would be an assumed age these days to point to a physical breakdown. However, one may spin Conner’s history. Could missing parts of seasons have left some tread on the tires? He has barely eeked over 200 carries thrice in his career. Joe Mixon (a full year younger) has done it five times while sniffing 300 twice, to put it in perspective. It is likely worth the gamble.
There are still running backs performing at Conner’s age. Many of them will continue to perform as fantasy starters even if they see a timeshare. Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb might not all be the same age to the month, but they are close. For crying out loud, Raheem Mostert was just RB5 at age 31. There is no definitive cutoff, especially for a player that just logged the first 1,000-yard season of his career and ran the ball at a baffling 5.0 ypc clip.
Speaking of Time Shares
As of now, Conner stands nearly alone in the Arizona backfield. Emari Demercado (25) filled in during the former’s lineup absence, but is uninspiring an an NFL backfield asset. The Cardinals could draft a running back in 2024 from a woefully underwhelming crop coming out of the college ranks. It is more likely that they will seek out a free agent complimentary piece on the cheap.
That leaves Conner, who is due a $1.5 million roster bonus on St. Patrick’s Day. There should be very little movement on the dynasty trade radar until that happens. Assuming it does (the team saves just over $5 million by cutting him) it could be an enviable position. He would stand to open 2024 as a workhorse-style back.
What Are We Doing with James Conner in Dynasty?
Conner finished 2023 at RB18 (barely behind David Montgomery) with seven players above him scoring less PPG on the season. However, his ECR is just RB31 in dynasty according to FantasyPros. The dearth of rock-toting talent arriving from school combined with increased NFL dual-backfield usage, means a trade steal for contenders.
VERDICT: Buy after the 2024 roster bonus triggers. Contending squads with even minimal need at the running back position can afford to buy without breaking the bank. In many leagues, he can be had for a late second in this draft or some combination of thirds/fourths. At the end of the day, in 2024 that pick is likely to be a “shot in the dark” running back that may or may not carry any value.
Even teams hoping to contend this year and for the next 1-2 seasons, it is a small price to pony up. Even if Conner loses a lead role for Arizona (or elsewhere) in 2025, he will still continue to chip in meaningful numbers. Think Tyler Allgeier, AJ Dillon, or Kareem Hunt. You could do worse with a bench spot. For immediacy, though, Conner could serve as an RB2 on fantasy teams in 2024 needing to fill that hole.
Let’s Hear it from Other Analysts!
“If your roster construction leans towards either zero RB or hero RB, there are a few you should target in the later rounds of your startup drafts or via trade. Top amongst this list would be James Conner. Conner is the RB34 on KTC dynasty rankings, checking in behind players such as Roschon Johnson and Kendre Miller and behind rookie picks like a mid-2024 second-rounder and a mid-2026 early second. Anyone who rather have Johnson or Miller is banking on the false sense of future success based on those players’ ages.
When constructing your roster, you should bet on the near-guaranteed production as opposed to age for running backs in this range. In six seasons as a full-time starter Conner has finished as an RB1 on three occasions, an RB2 on two others. Though he saw just an 8% target share in Drew Petzing’s first year as the Cardinals OC after seeing an 11% share in Kliff Kingsbury’s final season, Conner still finished as the RB18 last season. Betting on Conner as a producer for one more season makes a lot more sense then betting on the Millers or Johnsons of the world ever producing even one season of Conner-like production. I would try to get him thrown into a deal, in a way that doesn’t make him appear to be the actual target.” – Shane Manila, trade analyst at DynastyTradesIn5, featured writer at Destination Devy
…and
“It’s a dog eat dog world and James Conner is wearing bacon pants. No one has a more disproportionate gap between production and perceived value. Buy this man and then join another startup and draft him again. The concern for Conner going into 2023 was his role in a new offense, which was quickly put to bed. After an endless cycle of “Did you take the bus here?” jokes, people who paid close attention to the rushing attack of Cardinals offense under Drew Petzing (former Browns staffer) saw a lot of immediate production despite the team working largely with backups and rookies.
The upside of having a slightly injury-prone career at RB is that for a 28-year-old, Conner does not have the mileage of a Derrick Henry or Ezekiel Elliott. Kyler Murray is the ideal partner as he rushes enough to lighten the load but has too small of a frame to take consistent goal line work. Despite having a large frame and punishing run style, (Conner) is a surprisingly capable pass-catcher. Considering he is going around guys like Tony Pollard, Austin Ekeler, and Roschon Johnson, I am taking that bet 10/10. This is a relatively cheap player that can produce consistent low-RB1 upside for managers in their 3-year window.” – Chuck Bass, expert on most things
Others had this to say:
“Since 2020, James Conner has finished every season with 200+ carries and 7+ touchdowns. With the current state of the Cardinals franchise, I don’t imagine them moving on to a better option as the full-time runner (at least for this coming season). Conner has a lower base salary this season than last, and his current contract with Arizona ends after 2024.
Could Arizona add a second option in the running back room? 100% yes, however, I still think Conner has at least 2-3 solid years of production as an RB2, and for that reason, I would either trade low for him (a back end second round rookie pick or perhaps a WR3/Flex player and a third round rookie draft selection) or hold if I’ve rostered him, as I don’t feel his value in a trade would bring back much forward value.” – Mase Riney, Content Creator at Fantasy Six Pack and ranker on the FantasyPros ECR.
YPF Weighs In
“As Conner enters the season (at) 29, one has to wonder if he has any remaining juice in the tank. The most realistic path would be Arizona bringing in a more explosive back and allow Conner to retain the Jamaal Williams role. While this was an attractive role in 2022, many quickly found out the lack of appeal that role maintained outside of the Ben Johnson offense. The Conner conundrum is where his value lies this year. Gannon seemed content running with a single running backs in 2023. The ‘Tea Leaves’ look clear as day, Conner is a low end handcuff whom I’d wager finishes closer to RB40 than RB24. If I roster him I’m holding because his value is worth more than the 4th I’d likely get (in return). I’d ask for a 3&4 in 2026.” – Britt Sanders, analyst at Yards Per Fantasy
“James Conner is quite the curious case in dynasty. Normally you would try to trade a RB after their first NFL contract expires, but he is coming off the highest YPC and YPG rate of his career. On top of that, he is likely going to keep the workhorse role of the Cardinals offense unless they make a splash in free agency due to a thin rookie RB class. All that being said, he has missed at least one game every season of his career.
If I’m a strong contender I would look to add him as a serviceable depth piece at a cheap price. If anything less than a strong contender I’m looking to sell him for (what) I can get considering this offseason he (is) at the highest value for the rest of his career. Keep in mind… if you hold him one more season no one will want a 30 year old RB and you’ll be stuck. If you are buying, make sure it will pay off.” – Ryan Odell, analyst at Yards Per Fantasy and RPO Football
Have a suggestion of a player to feature in “What Are We Doing with…”? Email Sam Schneider at samwiseYPF@gmail.com
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