What Are We Doing with Jahan Dotson in Dynasty?
Jahan Dotson 2024 Dynasty Value
Jahan Dotson is stuck in the middling vortex of NFL wide receivers. In addition to his status on a rebuilding NFC East team, his future in dynasty fantasy football is shrouded in uncertainty. There are a lot of questions with few answers. Yet, the 2024 offseason appears to be decision time for managers on whether to commit to the Washington Commanders’ wideout.
Draft Promise
Dotson was plucked up by the team in the nation’s capital with the 16th overall pick in the 2022 draft. The club was enamored by the Penn State University product’s contested catch ability and 36-inch vertical, despite his relatively slight frame. He came in with more muscle mass than the Philadelphia Eagles’ DeVonta Smith while ceding an inch of height.
While Dotson’s 4.43 40-yard dash time is just adequate, his catch radius is off the charts. In a draft shallow in wide receiver talent, he was the fifth wideout taken in picks eight through 16. The Nittany Lion dropped 10 passes in 288 college targets for an incredible 3.5% drop rate. During his college career, he snared 183 balls, with nearly half coming in 2021 (91).
In addition to his sticky fingers, Dotson has been compared favorably to elite route runners at the NFL level. Some scouts even compared his ability to get off the line and make precise cuts to that of Keenan Allen. While not Allen’s size, they share a common trait. A player’s most important ability is availability. Those route running skills make Dotson’s capacity to line up at every receiving position means that he may well be open on any given play under the right coordinator.
NFL Learning Curve
Dotson’s first season in the NFL saw him catch passes from three quarterbacks. Offensive Coordinator Scott Turner plugged in new quarterback Carson Wentz who was then relieved by Taylor Heinicke. Sam Howell rounded out the holy trinity for a .500 club that scored just 321 points.
In 2023, neither the defensive-minded Ron Rivera (fired) nor offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy (future uncertain) could right the ship, as the Commanders stumbled to a measly 329 points scored, even while playing consistently from behind.
In two seasons in Washington, Dotson has mustered just 84 catches for 1,041 yards and 11 touchdowns. That has rewarded fantasy players a total of 254 PPR points in 29 games, or 8.75/game production. There have been a few “blow up” games making him suitable for Best Ball, but not as a consistent starting option for a traditional lineup.
After being peppered with targets at Penn State, he has just one game in two seasons where he earned 10 looks and only two contests of 29 that saw him eclipse 100 yards.
Turn the Corner or Bust
As Washington goes through a rebuild, there is reason for hope with Dotson in the fantasy landscape. Terry McLaurin has a “Scary” contract that costs $24.1 million against the cap in 2024. Unless they were to find a buyer, he will return. The dead cap hit is even more at $29.3 million. After the season, Washington can cut ties with the aging route-runner. Curtis Samuel (27 years old) is presumably out the door this offseason. Even with McLaurin under contract, it only makes sense that Brian Robinson Jr. (25 years old at season start) and Dotson (24) become the featured role players on offense.
The Commanders hold the second overall pick in this year’s draft, and it stands to reason that they will spend that pick on their future under center. Should they go with a can’t miss prospect in the first, Dotson should benefit. He will be able to grow alongside a dynamic playmaker. Any of the top three quarterbacks (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye) in this draft would fit well with a younger coach and offensive coordinator to create an immediate offensive nucleus. The young wide receiver could perform admirably with either a mobile quarterback or a pocket passer.
RELATED: MARVIN HARRISON JR. 2024 NFL SCOUTING REPORT
What Are We Doing with Jahan Dotson?
Gone are the days where wide receivers in the NFL were given a three-season grace period. The maturation level of college players has grown leaps and bounds along with the offensive mindsets of spread offenses and the like. Most of that has made its way to the pro level, and receivers are expected to enter the league primed to come out swinging. But what of players who were thrown into unfortunate situations?
It is time to buy Dotson at his current price point, but there are bargains to be had. Even the most savvy of dynasty players are guilty of getting happy feet once they feel a roster spot is wasted or are tired of waiting around. Everyone has their own opinions about players on his/her team.
A glimpse at many trade value charts place him at a late second round rookie pick, but he can be had for less. A good manager pays what the perceived future worth as opposed to the present. Presently, Dotson should not hold more value than a 2024 third rounder, and that value will remain as long as McLaurin is on the team. His value will appreciate modestly throughout the season. The value lies in 2025. He should be worth a 2025 second, but only bought this offseason.
Sam’s Verdict: Buy for a 2025 2nd or acquire as a throw-in in lieu of a 2024 third in trade with the right manager. If currently rostering Dotson, hold the line. Or if contending, use these selling points to pay less for a veteran that will put you over the top.
Let’s Hear It From Other Analysts!
“With a new head coach and likely a new quarterback, Jahan Dotson is worth buying at his current price. The former first round pick is a red zone threat, and should see an increase in targets if Curtis Samuel signs elsewhere and McLaurin is moved. I’d be willing to send a second round pick to acquire him while his value is down. I would not move him for less than a late first.” – @DynastyHoser, contributor for The League Winners
“(Dotson’s) target share dropped as compared to 2022. But it (looks like there’s) a new QB incoming & Curtis Samuel should be gone which could pave a road for Dotson to be a sleeper in 2024. Right now I’d rank him as a WR4 in dynasty. I would trade players like Aaron Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, and Michael Mayer for him. I’d use him to acquire Nick Chubb, Josh Downs, and Dallas Goedert.” – @the_fantasy_dad, writer for Spotlight Sports Group
“Dotson is a player that can work well in limited space. For him to reach his true potential, Washington needs to use him in a Curtis Samuel-type of role. Get him involved behind the line of scrimmage, and with quick screens. Get the ball in his hands any way that you can. Dotson is not only a receiver, but also a gadget player. If Samuel is not retained, I expect Dotson to breakout in a big way in 2024.” – The Mock Draft Guy, all things scouting and mocks on YouTube
…and
“Despite his quarterback finishing top-4 in pass attempts, Dotson was unable to reach 50 receptions. He averaged just 7.3 fantasy points per game. If I had any (shares), I would try to find a manager in my league willing to part with a top-24 rookie pick or equal value. Otherwise, he’s the perfect sweetener to push a larger deal to the finish line. He is no longer a top-100 dynasty asset and I doubt he will ever crack that threshold again.” – Alex Johnson, Founder of Yards Per Fantasy and the YPF Podcast Network
“The Washington Commanders are going through a rebuild. Changes everywhere, from Head Coach to Quarterback. Curtis Samuel is a free agent and Dotson should be the main benefactor. (You should) grab him now while everyone has rookie fever and before they get a QB upgrade.” – Dave Heilman, SGPN Senior Dynasty Analyst
Have a suggestion of a player to feature in “What Are We Doing with…”? Email Sam Schneider at samwiseYPF@gmail.com
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