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Week 4 was a shorter card, but paid off going 4-2 and looking at a three-week profit streak going into the Week 5 college football slate. While the last two weeks have been meh, but the Week 5 college football schedule is the start of conference play. We have five ranked matchups and many more great games that will draw a crowd. Here are my favorite plays for the Week 5 college football schedule.
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Week 4: 4-2 (+1.7 units)
YTD: 21-17 (+2.95 units)
Purdue (2-2) vs. #21 Minnesota (4-0) (Minnesota -10; O/U 53.5)
Minnesota -10 (-115)
This game is why I note the date range I place the bets above. I got in on Minnesota Monday for the reasons I explain below, but now the spread is Minnesota by 13.
PJ Fleck is 4-1 ATS and SU against Purdue since joining Minnesota. Purdue struggled last week hosting Florida Atlantic and starting quarterback Aiden O’Connell is questionable. Gopher senior quarterback Tanner Morgan and running back Mo Ibrahim lead a top-5 offense in yards (543 YPG) and the best Power Five rushing attack (294.5 YPG). The Gopher defense allows the fewest yards per game (187.8) and second fewest points (6 PPG). If O’Connell is out, I’m expecting another slow offensive day for a one-dimensional Purdue offense. Take the Gophers in their home Big Ten opener.
Temple (2-2) vs. Memphis (3-1) (Memphis -19; O/U 50.5)
Temple +19 (-110)
This matchup has happened seven times; Temple is 7-0 ATS. Since Ryan Silverfield took over the Memphis at the end of the 2019 season, Memphis is 9-19 ATS and 5-12 in conference matchups. Memphis is 5-11 ATS as a favorite, and just 3-8 as home favorites. Memphis’s defense ranks 100th of 131 FBS schools in defensive scoring; they’ve allowed over 30 points to three of four opponents. The lone school who failed to score 30 against the Tigers was Navy, a team that lost 14-7 to Delaware before falling to Memphis. This is more a fade against Memphis than loving Temple. I’ll take the Owls in this Week 5 college football AAC matchup.
Northern Illinois (1-3) vs. Ball State (1-3) (Northern Illinois -3.5; O/U 59.5)
Northern Illinois -3.5 (-110)
In this matchup, Northern Illinois is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last ten. Northern Illinois has played two SEC schools in the last two weeks and kept it within one score at #8 Kentucky last week. Ball State is 0-3 this season against FBS schools, with the lone win hosting Murray State. Under Mike Neu, Ball State is 19-29 ATS in conference (39.6%) and 4-10 as home underdog (28.6%). Ball State is 3-11 SU when home underdogs. I’m backing Northern Illinois in this MAC matchup.
South Alabama (3-1) vs. Louisiana Lafayette (2-2) (South Alabama -9; O/U 47.5)
Louisiana Lafayette +9 (-110); Louisiana Lafayette ML (+275)
Hand up: I’m a big Kane Wommack fan. Hoosier fans know he was calling the shots for Indiana’s defense that went 6-1 in the 2020 Covid season. And he’s had solid success at South Alabama with an 8-8 record at a program that hasn’t seen a bowl game since 2016.
But this matchup has some trends going against USA. The home team is 7-3 SU in the series and 8-2 ATS. Louisiana is a perfect 5-0 SU when hosting South Alabama and is 4-1 ATS at home. South Alabama is 2-6 SU as a road team. Lastly, as a road favorite, Wommack and the Jaguars have failed to cover in their three attempts. Billy Napier is no longer in town, but I’m taking Louisiana to cover – and win as a home dog.
Troy (2-2) vs. Western Kentucky (3-1) (Western Kentucky -5; O/U 54.5)
Western Kentucky -5 (-110); Over 54.5 (-110)
Western Kentucky has scored at least 30 points going back to the start of the 2021 season, an 18-game streak. They are 13-5 ATS in that span, including 6-2 at home and non-conference. The over is 12-6 in that span, including another 6-2 record at home and non-conference. The Hilltoppers average 7.6 yards per play and .704 points per play this season. Troy has been battle tested against strong competition (Ole Miss, App State, and Marshall). I think Western Kentucky’s streak of 30-point games continues. And if so, the worse this does is push. Hilltoppers and the over.
#10 NC State (4-0) vs. #5 Clemson (4-0) (Clemson -6.5; O/U 39.5)
Clemson -6.5 (-110)
Dabo Swinny has taken care of business against great teams. NC State has the best defensive scoring unit (11.8 PPG) in the conference. This game was the start of the demise of Clemson’s 2021 season, crashing their title hopes as they lost 27-21 in double overtime in Raleigh. Last year, DJ Uiagalelei and the Clemson offense was the issue; now, Clemson’s offense only trails North Carolina in ACC scoring production (43.8 PPG). Clemson get’s their revenge this week.
Other Week 5 College Football Plays
Florida Atlantic/North Texas – Under 68 (-110)
The under is 7-3 in the last ten matchups between these teams. I love taking the under in FAU games; under Willie Taggart, the under is 10-5 in C-USA games and 19-7 overall.
Rice/UAB – Over 51.5 (-110)
The over is 13-3 since the start of 2021 in Rice games, including 11-1 as an underdog.
Central Michigan +7 (-105) vs. Toledo
The Chippewas have been covering machines under Jim McElwain. Since 2019, Central Michigan is 2-1 SU against Toledo and 3-0 ATS. They are 15-8 ATS in conference (65.2%).
Have a favorite play for college football or NFL? Let me know on Twitter! Follow me @DrewRoberts_and let me know your favorite play.
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