Week 4 Thursday Night Showdown on Draftkings
Lions vs Packers DraftKings Showdown
Showdown Captain mode is a DraftKings tournament where you have $50,000 to create a lineup using 6 players from a standalone single game. One of those players will be your captain. The captain costs 1.5 times their salary and will accumulate 1.5 times the points. As with every slate, GAME THEORY IS INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT. Even more so in Showdown, you want your lineup to tell a story of how the game will go. There are a lot of options based on how you see the game going but ALWAYS make sure there’s correlation between your players.
More: Fantasy Football Trades You Need To Make Before Week 4
Lions @ Packers
Spread: DET -1.5
Over/Under: 46
Injuries to Monitor
Aaron Jones is dealing with a hamstring injury that has kept him out the last two weeks.
Christian Watson has a hamstring injury that has prevented him from playing yet this season.
David Montgomery has a thigh injury that kept him out last week. He has been a limited participant in practice but it would make sense for the Lions to hold him out to give him extra rest heading into next week.
Breakdown
The 2-1 Lions come off a fairly easy win at home over the Falcons. They held the pathetic Falcons offense to 245 yards. Detroit is averaging 24 points per game and have allowed 21 points per game. Through three weeks, the Lions have allowed 223 passing yards and 72 rushing yards per game. Offensively they’ve passed for 273 yards per game and rushed for 112 yards.
The Packers are also 2-1 after defeating the Saints last week. They were strong defensively only allowing Carr and Winston to combine for 175 yards passing and 77 rushing yards. They’re averaging 26.7 points per game while allowing 20.7 points per game. Jordan Love has looked good so far but has only averaged 218 passing yards per game. They’ve struggled running the ball with only 90 rush yards per game.
We know Goff tends to struggle on the road outdoors. Last year he only threw for 224 yards in Green Bay. I’m banking in the trend continuing and as a result won’t be playing Goff as captain. I’ll rely more on his pass catchers. I’m willing to take the chance on Jordan Love who has been very efficient so far. This should be a close game and as a result even 3-3 builds will likely be popular. Amon Ra is obviously the top captain choice but is very expensive and there isn’t much value on this slate.
Captain/Flex
Amon Ra St Brown $17,400/$11,600
Amon Ra continues to see an elite 29% target share. He’s been targeted on 30% of his routes run. He’s only scored one TD so far but has the 3rd most targets inside the 10 yard line. He has arguably the highest floor in the NFL and if the TDs come the ceiling is spectacular.
Aaron Jones $16,200/$10,800
Jones is far and away the best offensive weapon for the Packers. If he plays he’ll be my highest owned captain by far. Detroit has allowed 7.8 yards per reception to opposing RBs whichbis where Jones does most of his damage.
Jordan Love $14,700/$9,800
Love hasn’t thrown for a ton of yards but has been very efficient in the TD department. He already has seven passing TDs and ran one in last week. The lack of a running game has forced the Packers to throw when they get in close and I don’t see that changing.
Jahmyr Gibbs $14,400/$9,600
Green Bay has allowed the 2nd most receptions and 3rd most receiving yards to opposing RBs this season. It’s possible that if Montgomery is back Gibbs could go back to his early season role but his explosiveness gives him an upside that Montgomery doesn’t possess.
The Rest
Jared Goff $10,400
Goff’s ceiling is likely capped in this one but still warrants a play at flex. He’s averaging 34 pass attempts per game so it’s hard to see a scenario where he isn’t in the optimal lineup. He’s averaged eight yards per attempt whichbis 3rd highest in the league.
Romeo Doubs $8,800
Doubs is tied for the team lead in targets and receptions. He’s played the most snaps among Packers receivers and has run the most routes. Doubs leads the league in targets, receptions and TDs inside the 10 yard line. He also has a healthy 13 yard ADOT.
Christian Watson $8,200
Watson is extremely talented and has shown big play upside. In his season debut it’s hard to know how much he’ll play or be involved but he’s worth a play and definitely adds to Love’s upside.
David Montgomery $6,800
If Montgomery plays I will definitely play him but could see him getting a slightly diminished workload coming back from injury and with how good Gibbs looked last week. Regardless this price is too low for him if he plays and he’ll be in my lineups.
Sam LaPorta $8,000
LaPorta has the 2nd most targets and receptions among TEs. He has the 2nd highest target share among TEs, only Zach Ertz share is higher. He has a 30% targets per routes run and 2.5 yards per route run. It can’t be understated how impressive these numbers are for a rookie TE.
Jayden Reed $5,600
Reed is tied with Doubs for the team lead in targets. He’s also tied with Doubs for the league lead in targets inside the 10 yard line. He has a 12.2 yard ADOT and an elite 29% targets per routes run.
Josh Reynolds $6,200
Reynolds was a disaster last week. He ran 24 routes but didn’t receive a single target. I’ll look at this as an anomaly. In the 1st two weeks he averaged 6.5 targets, 4.5 receptions, 73 yards and a TD. He was WR15 on a points per game basis over that span.
AJ Dillon $7,000
Dillon has been incredibly inefficient this season. He’s only averaged 2.7 yards per carry. He’s overpriced if Jones can play but he likely has some TD upside which could warrant a play here.
Luke Musgrave $6,400
Musgrave is tied with Doubs for the team lead in receptions which is good for the 6th most receptions among TEs. He’s also tied for the 4th most air yards among TEs.
Kalif Raymond $5,200
Raymond is a part time player but did receive a season high six targets last week. He is a big play guy and can pay off on limited snaps. He’s averaged 17.3 yards per reception and 3 yards per route run. He’s also 2nd on the team in air yards.
Dontayvion Wicks $5,000
Wicks has played more snaps than Jayden Reed. He’s averaged 14.2 yards per reception and has a 15.7 yard ADOT. He’s a cheaper piece in this game that has a shot at a TD.
Craig Reynolds $2,800
Reynolds has seven carries on the season. He’s really not involved enough to get excited about but he should get some carries and there’snot much value on this slate. However if Montgomery plays he’s unplayable.
Patrick Taylor $3,000
Emanuel Wilson $1,400
Bam Knight $1,000
These guys are only playable if there’s no Montgomery/Jones and even then don’t expect much.
Marvin Jones $2,000
Brock Wright $800
Samori Toure $600
Jones is washed-up. He hasn’t seen a target since week 1. You’re basically hoping for a random TD.Same goes for the others here. You’re just hoping for a TD.
RANKINGS | DYNASTY | WEEKLY |
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