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Week 2 was a nutty weekend across the college football landscape. The AP top-10 teams went 1-9 ATS and saw #8 Notre Dame fall to Marshall at home, and #6 Texas A&M lose to Appalachian State. Only two matchups between ranked opponents for the Week 3 college football schedule, but it will be a jam packed slate. Here are my favorite plays for Week 3.
Week 2: 5-6 (-1.6 units)
YTD: 9-12 (-4.15 units)
#6 Oklahoma (2-0) vs. Nebraska (1-2) (Oklahoma -11.5; O/U 66.5)
Nebraska +11.5 (-110); Nebraska ML (.5 Units; +315)
* Takes a deep breathe and holds nose*
Nebraska has been the laughing stock of college football in 2022. A loss to Northwestern to kick off the season and losing at home to Georgia Southern was the last straw for Scott Frost. However, now that Frost is gone, there are rumblings it’s an addition by subtraction. Interim head coach Mickey Joseph is a former Cornhusker like Frost, playing at Nebraska from 1988 thru 1991. However, Joseph’s playing career was cut short due to a late hit out of bounds against…Oklahoma. Joseph was on the LSU staff with Ed Orgeron that beat the Sooners 63-28 on their way to a national championship. I say all this because this feels like a spot where Nebraska rises up for their head coach and plays to their potential. I believe they can keep this close and pull the upset of the Week 3 college football schedule.
Old Dominion (1-1) vs. Virginia (1-1) (Virginia -8; O/U 52.5)
Old Dominion +8 (-110)
This Virginia team appears a shell of itself from the 2021 offense we grew accustomed to. Virginia’s Brennan Armstrong led the Cavaliers to the 2nd best pass offense in 2021. Currently, he’s completed just over 50% of his attempts, throwing two touchdowns and three interceptions combined against Richmond and Illinois. Old Dominion is a feisty team that knocked off Virginia Tech in Week 1. Not to mention, we saw the Fun Sun Belt Conference knock off two Power Five teams last week. Give me the Monarchs to start the Week 3 college football slate.
#22 Penn State (2-0) vs. Auburn (2-0) (Penn State -3; O/U 47)
Penn State -3 (-110)
Penn State has been a great early season team lately. They were already tested on the road in Week 1, a win over Purdue. Auburn has not been tested this year, hosting Mercer and barely knocking off San Jose State. While West Lafayette lacks a big game feel that this one will have, Penn State should be prepared. I’m backing Penn State in this battle of Big Ten / SEC.
#20 Ole Miss (2-0) vs. Georgia Tech (1-1) (Ole Miss -16; O/U 61.5)
Ole Miss -16 (-110)
I touched on Georgia Tech being one of the bottom Power Five teams in Week 1; they failed to cover as they lost 41-10 to Clemson. Now they welcome their second ranked team in to Atlanta for the season in Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss Rebels. With Geoff Collins at Georgia Tech, they are 10-26. Against the spread, the Yellow Jackets are 10-18 as underdogs (35.7%), 3-7 against ranked teams (30%) and 4-10 as home underdogs (28.6%). Lane Kiffin did well this offseason by revamping an offense that saw a handful of players go to the NFL. This is a fade against Georgia Tech against a good team for Week 3.
#12 BYU (2-0) vs. #25 Oregon (1-1) (Oregon -3.5; O/U 58)
Under 58 (-110)
I hit on this trend last week when BYU knocked off Baylor in double-overtime, 26-20. In six-years under Kalani Sitake, the under is 10-5 against ranked opponents (66.7%), 17-8 as underdogs (68%), 30-14 after a win (68.2%) and 9-4 as away dogs (69.2%). BYU receivers Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney are game-time decisions as of Wednesday. We don’t truly know how good Oregon is offensively yet; their one game against an FBS team they scored three points against the defending national champions. I am expecting somewhat of a lull from BYU coming off a monster win that went into Sunday morning. The under is the play for this ranked matchup.
Kansas (2-0) vs. Houston (1-1) (Houston -9; O/U 57)
Kansas +9 (-110); Over 57 (-110)
Don’t look now, but the Jayhawks have been humming under Lance Leipold. They’ve averaged 55.5 over the first two games and knocked off West Virginia on the road. The Jayhawks have also covered their last five games ATS. Meanwhile, Houston has started the year with back-to-back overtime games: a triple overtime win at UTSA, and a double overtime loss at Texas Tech. Houston finally plays their first home game; the over is 6-1 in Kansas road games under Leipold. Jayhawks and the over for this Week 3 college football matchup.
Mississippi State (2-0) vs. LSU (1-1) (Mississippi State -2.5; O/U 53.5)
LSU ML (+110)
Death Valley under the lights as Brian Kelly kicks off his SEC schedule. Yes, Kelly was had a rough start to the season in a primetime loss to Florida State. But they bounced back in Week 2 by dropping 37 in the first quarter, albeit against Southern at home. The Tigers welcome back running back John Emery for his first game of the season. DBU will have their hands full with Will Rogers of Mississippi State, who led the Bulldogs to a top-5 passing offense a season ago. If the Tigers can contain Rogers, Kelly will secure his first SEC win. I’ll take the underdog in the Bayou.
Central Florida (1-1) vs. Florida Atlantic (2-1) (Central Florida -8; O/U 62)
Under 62 (-110)
The under has hit in nine of 12 home games for Florida Atlantic under Willie Taggart. It improves as the underdog, hitting in six of seven. Florida Atlantic’s defense has surrendered just 14.3 points per game at home games under Taggart. John Rys Plumlee and UCF struggled offensively against Louisville last week, just a week after the Cardinals got embarrassed by Syracuse. I’m going to follow the trends and believe the Florida Atlantic defense will show up against the in-state-foe.
Fresno State (1-1) vs. #7 USC (2-0) (USC -13.5; O/U 74)
USC -13.5 (-110)
USC’s offense is a wagon. Caleb Williams and company have propelled the Trojans to 53.5 points per game and scoring 100 of 107 in the first three quarters. USC currently sits at +8 in turnover margin through their first two games. Until this team shows any weaknesses, I’ll take the the Trojans in the Week 3 college football nightcap.
Have a favorite Week 3 play? Let me know on Twitter! Follow @DrewRoberts_ for more college and NFL discussions!
