Week 2 Adds, Drops, Buys, and Sells
What a week! Week 1 was exhilarating but the turnaround is quick. Waivers are running and we have championship rosters to build. With that in mind, here are the adds, drops, buys, and sells to consider making in Week 2.
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Buy Antonio Gibson
We saw what Gibson is capable of as a runner last year. He was efficient, with the explosiveness to break off long runs. And we knew he was a good pass catcher. After all, he was a wide receiver in college. The question coming into 2021, though, was would he have a role in the passing game? Or would JD McKissic continue to dominate the backfield targets? Week 2 gave us our answer. Gibson saw a 24-percent target share which was second only to Christian McCaffrey among all running backs. McKissic, on the other hand, saw just 5-percent. This is what we needed to see from Gibson to unlock his ceiling. It looks like he is going to see CMC usage, like we heard buzz about in the summer. Gibson now has top-3 RB upside written all over him. The cost will be high, but go get him.
Related | Snaps, Targets, Air Yards, and Trends from Week 1
Add Tim Patrick & K.J. Hamler
Jerry Jeudy is going to miss significant time with an ankle injury. That means both Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler will see more opportunities. We saw what Patrick could do last year when Courtland Sutton went down. He averaged 10.7 fantasy points per game and had multiple top-20 scoring weeks. Patrick was on the field for 70-percent of the snaps in Week 1. He caught all four of his targets for 39 yards and a score. I expect Hamler will also see more run. Hamler made some plays in preseason and caught three-of-four targets in Week 1. Patrick is the add here, but Hamler is in play in deeper formats
Add Elijah Mitchell & JaMycal Hasty
Elijah Mitchell is the perfect fit in Kyle Shanahan’s rushing scheme. He’s 5-10, 201-pounds with and 86th-percentile speed score and 88th-percentile burst (PlayerProfiler). It was no surprise then, that Mitchell stepped up and played well when Raheem Mostert went down. Mitchell had 19 carries for 104 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, he didn’t see a single target. But that’s where JaMycal Hasty comes in. He only caught one pass but he played on all of the long down-and-distance and 2-minute offense snaps. He also saw a goal line carry in which he converted for a touchdown. Mitchell is the priority add here, but Hasty is worth a look in deeper leagues as well.
Hold Trey Sermon
This one was a shocker. All indications during preseason were that Trey Sermon was going to be involved in this offense. And not only involved, but that he would eventually take over the RB1 job. The surprising Week 1 healthy scratch was certainly a big set back. However, Raheem Mostert went down and is expected to miss at least half the season. While Mitchell and Hasty looked good, Sermon should be active on game day moving forward. We have to believe the third-rounder will get his opportunity. It’s tough to predict how a Kyle Shanahan backfield will play out, but historically if you’re on the roster you eventually get an opportunity. Sermon’s time will come. Hold for now to see how things play out.
Buy Jalen Hurts
I told you. Jalen Hurts is good. He completed over 77-percent of his passes in Week 1 and ran for 62 yards. There are fantasy teams out there with Hurts as their QB2 just wasting away on the bench. Make an offer and ride him as your QB1 all season. His rushing production will give you a nice safe weekly floor while also providing big upside when he has 250+ yards and three scores through the air like he did in Week 1. Buy. Buy. Buy.
Buy Najee Harris
The Steelers offense is not good. It’s bad. But Najee Harris’ usage was exciting. He was on the field for 100-percent of the snaps and had a decent 9.4-percent target share. We know volume is king in fantasy football. We saw that with James Robinson last year who was a top-10 RB despite playing in one of the league’s worst offenses. Why? Because he saw all the volume. Harris can be that guy.
Hold/Buy Marquez Callaway
I warned you in my Week 1 WR matchups article that Callaway would likely struggle against Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander. He sure did. But Callaway is good and he was on the field for 84% of the snaps. He’s still the WR1 in an offense desperate for receiving production. He showed a good connection with Jameis Winston in preseason and flashed on multiple occasions as a rookie in 2020. Don’t drop him yet, and maybe even explore a trade. You can probably get him cheap
Add Mark Ingram
I never, ever, thought I would recommend adding Mark Ingram again. But here we are. He was the clear early-downs back in a surprisingly competent Houston offense. In fact, he was second in the league in carries. Ingram led the Houston backfield with a 46% snap share. David Johnson was the next highest with 28%. Now, don’t go spending a ton of FAAB on Ingram. We still expect this offense to struggle for most of the season and he was not involved as a receiver. But, he’s worth a look in deeper leagues or on teams that are desperate for running back production.
Sell James Robinson
James Robinson was a fade even before the team drafted Travis Etienne in the first round. Not because he’s a bad player (he’s good!) but because he saw historically high volume in 2020. He was not going to be able to sustain that for another season, especially with a new coaching staff. His final numbers from 2020 were: 70.8-percent snap share, 85.7% opportunity share (PlayerProfiler). In Week 1, we saw Carlos Hyde involved more than any other back was last season. That resulted in a 63.5-percent snap share and 47.8-percent opportunity share for Robinson. We know there are plenty of Robinson lovers out there who will pay up. Sell while you can.
Add Cedric Wilson
The Cowboys offense looked fantastic (as expected) in Week 1. Unfortunately, they lost Michael Gallup for at least a month. Wilson will slot right into that role. He flashed on occasion when he had opportunities last year. In an office that is going to throw the ball a ton and score plenty of points, Wilson can be a flex play for the next few weeks.
Hold/Buy Ezekiel Elliott
For those worried about Zeke:
- 84% Snap Share
- Bucs have the best run D in the NFL
- Game script was not in his favor
- Was an absolute key in pass pro vs a dominant pass rush (hence the low target %)
- One of the friendliest schedules over next 10 weeks or so
Let’s give him one more week!
Hold/Buy Javonte Williams & Sell Melvin Gordon
The final numbers tell us Melvin Gordon is the RB1 and Javonte Williams is just ‘meh’. Well, I’m here to tell you to look closer. Williams and Gordon had an even 50-50 split of the backfield work. They each took 33 snaps. And Gordon only had five more touches than the rookie. The difference was really the 70-yard run by Gordon. It was always assumed that the second-rounder would slowly take over this backfield and be the guy in the second half. Seeing the even split already in Week 1 tells me we’re closer to that happening than I originally thought. Sell Gordon on the 70-yard score and buy Williams on the discount.
Sell Jameis Winston
I’m not saying he won’t have a good season, but five touchdowns on 20 pass attempts and 148 yards screams SELL. They have no receivers and this is Alvin Kamara’s offense. If anyone is just blindly looking at five touchdowns and will overpay, trade this man.
Hold Adam Trautman
Juwan Johnson. Juwan Johnson. Juwan Johnson. That’s all I’ve heard leading up to Week 1 and since his two-score performance. But what you may not know is that Johnson played just 19-percent of the snaps. On the other hand, Trautman was on the field 82-percent of the time. Before you say he’s just a blocker, let me tell you Trautman was second only to Darren Waller in target share (29-percent) among tight ends in Week 1. Trautman is the TE1 in New Orleans and is in line for a breakout season.
Add Juwan Johnson
With that said, we should still add Johnson in deeper leagues. This offense is desperate for capable pass-catchers and it’s clear Johnson will be involved. In a world that is starving for productive fantasy tight ends, it’s nice to have a guy who can find the end zone on occasion (or two).
Hold Dyami Brown
The raw numbers were bad (4 targets, 1 catch, -2 yards). But, Dyami Brown operated as the clear WR2 in Washington. He played on 93-percent of the snaps and had a 19-percent target share. With Curtis Samuel on injured reserve, I expect Brown to continue to see a significant role in this offense. The pass volume can only go up for Washington (just 21 attempts vs LAC) and the efficiency will improve on Brown’s targets. Don’t give up on this rookie playmaker just yet.
Sell Steelers WRs
I said it on several occasions throughout the summer and Week 1 proved it right: The Steelers offense is not good. Moreso, Ben Roethlisberger is not good. His arm is toast, folks. We saw that last year with a dink-and-dunk offense and that showed up again against Buffalo. Diontae Johnson is a great example. 10 targets are great, but when you can only turn those into 36 yards (7.2 YPR), your fantasy ceiling is capped. Luckily he made a spectacular end zone catch that saved his fantasy day and his trade value. Get out from these guys before they become a major headache the rest of the season.
Add K.J. Osborn
K.J. Osborn was a fifth-round pick out if Miami in 2020. He’s 6-0, 203-pounds with upper-percentile athleticism. In Week 1, he played on 81-percent of the snaps as the clear WR3 in Minnesota. He tied Justin Jefferson for second on the team in targets (9) with an 18-percent target share. With Kyle Rudolph gone and Irv Smith on injured reserve, the slot receiver may play a larger role in this Vikings offense than we’ve seen in recent years. Week 1 was an indication that that is true.
Hold Marquez Valdes-Scantling
We heard the buzz around MVS in training camp and, while the raw numbers weren’t great, his Week 1 usage was reflective of that. Even in a blowout that saw backups playing in the fourth quarter, Valdes-Scantlin saw a 63-percent snap share and was the target on 22-percent of Aaron Rodgers’ passes. His role wasn’t just a deep threat as we have seen in the past, either. He was seeing intermediate looks which means he’ll be a more steady contributor week-to-week than in previous seasons on top of his splash play upside.
Drop Zack Moss
In deeper leagues you should hold, but in shallow leagues I’m comfortable dropping Moss for one of the hot waiver adds of the week. He was a surprise healthy scratch and it’s not like the Bills utilize their running backs much anyway.
Buy Tyler Higbee
Higbee gave us everything we wanted, except a trip to the end zone. If you followed me throughout the spring and summer, you know I was all aboard the Higbee train (after correctly fading last year, by the way). With the upgrade at quarterback and the move of Gerald Everett to Seattle, all indications were that Higbee was going to have a significant role in this offense. We saw that right out the gate in Week 1 when he caught 5-of-6 targets (23.1% target share) for 68 yards. He was on the field for 100% of the snaps. The only thing we didn’t get was a touchdown which keeps the buying window open. It was already obvious this offense was going to be one of the best in the league, Sunday night confirmed that. Higbee will be a big part of it.
