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Week 1 was not the start I envisioned for college football. A (1-6/2-5) record that started on Thursday night, where underdog Purdue couldn’t close the deal against Penn State. It didn’t get much better Saturday; Tulsa fell in overtime to Wyoming and San Diego State laid an egg against Arizona. Nonetheless, we get back on the horse and ride again for the Week 2 college football slate.
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Week 1: 2-5 (-3.45 units)
YTD: 4-6 (-2.55 units)
Louisville (0-1) vs. Central Florida (1-0) (Central Florida -6; O/U 61.5)*
Central Florida -6 (-110)
*Game played on Friday September 9th
Louisville laid an egg in Week 1 on the road in Syracuse. Now, they find themselves on the road again in Orlando taking on Central Florida. UCF gets an extra day of rest and experience playing in the humid Florida conditions. John Rhys Plumlee, formerly of Ole Miss, had a solid debut for UCF. It’s a quick turnaround for Louisville to get their ducks in a row. I’ll take the Knights to start the Week 2 college football card.
Missouri (1-0) vs. Kansas State (1-0) (Kansas State -8.5; O/U 55.5)
Kansas State -8.5 (-110)
I went with a number of trends in Week 1 and I plan on going back to the well for the Week 2 college football slate. Under Eliah Drinkwitz, Missouri is 2-7 ATS in away games. Likewise, Kansas State is 13-7 ATS at home under Chris Klieman, 11-5-1 as a favorite, and 13-6 after a win. Missouri’s quarterback, Brady Cook, has 92 career college attempts. Missouri allowed 227.4 YPG on the ground in 2021, ranking last in the SEC and 124th out of 130 FBS schools. Kansas State welcomed Adrian Martinez from Nebraska, a dual threat quarterback who attempted 15 passes in Week 1 and rushed 13 times. Kansas State’s best offensive weapon is Deuce Vaughn, who rushed for over 1,400 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2021. I think the Kansas State rushing attack feasts against this Missouri defense in Week 2.
#1 Alabama (1-0) vs. Texas (1-0) (Alabama -20.5; O/U 61.5)
Alabama -20.5 (-110)
Both teams impressed in Week 1. However, this is a classic Nick Saban vs. former assistant coach game. Nick Saban is 25-2 at Alabama against former assistants. Of those 25 victories, 17 have come by over 20 points. Quin Ewers will get his second career start against the Crimson Tide. His first opponent, Louisiana Monroe, ranked 125th against the pass in 2021 and 110th in defensive scoring. Truly going from the kiddie pool to the deep end. I believe Alabama rolls in this battle of future SEC foes.
Southern Mississippi (0-1) vs. #15 Miami (1-0) (Miami -25.5; O/U 51)
Over 51 (-110)
Truthfully, I think Miami could hit this number themselves. Miami had a top-25 offense and returned seven starters from 2021. They looked strong, granted against Bethune Cookman, but this should not stop against Southern Miss. Frank Gore Jr. is the most notable name on Southern Mississippi’s offense, going for 178 yards on 32 carries and two scores last week. I’m taking the over for Miami this week.
#24 Tennessee (1-0) vs. #17 Pitt (1-0) (Tennessee -7; O/U 65.5)
Over 65.5 (-110)
Points points points. Two top-10 offenses from a season ago came out of the gates strong in 2022. In games away from Knoxville last season, the over was 4-1 for Tennessee and averaged 79.3 points per game. The over is 11-3 in Tennessee games going back to the start of 2021. Under Pat Narduzzi, the over is 10-5 when Pitt is a home underdog (66.7%) and 27-18-2 at home (60%). I’m expecting another high scoring affair between these two teams in Week 2.
Appalachian State (0-1) vs. #6 Texas A&M (1-0) (A&M -19; O/U 54)
Appalachian State +19 (-110)
Appalachian State was in the most intense game of Week 1, a back and forth 61-63 loss to North Carolina. Now they travel to Texas A&M. A&M had a weird Week 1 where they had delays and eventually won 31-0 over Sam Houston State. Texas A&M went through a quarterback competition this offseason and now face a look-ahead spot with Miami next week. I think Appalachian State can keep this close against A&M.
Akron (1-0) vs. # 14 Michigan State (1-0) (Michigan State -34; O/U 56)
Michigan State -34 (-110)
Teams favored by over four touchdowns in Week 1 went 8-0 ATS. Mel Tucker is 4-1-2 ATS in non-conference games in his three years of head coaching. Without Ken Walker III, Payton Thorne led the charge last week in a 35-13 win over Western Michigan. Meanwhile, Akron was taken to overtime by St. Francis of Pennsylvania in their home opener. This is simply a fade of Akron as I’m not sure how much offensive firepower they can produce against a Power Five school.
Iowa State (1-0) vs. Iowa (1-0) (Iowa -3.5; O/U 41.5)
Iowa -3.5 (-110)
Under 41.5 (-110)
Matt Campbell is 0-5 against the Hawkeyes, and the under is 4-1. They had their best team last year with College Football Playoff aspirations; those aspirations went out the window in Week 2, when they lost to the in-state rivals 27-17. Yes, Iowa’s offense looked abysmal in their 7-3 win over South Dakota State as their defense recorded two safeties. But the Kirk Ferentz’s defense has given Campbell’s teams fits.
If you want to see points, don’t watch this game. Under Campbell, the under is 20-13 as underdogs (60.6%), 19-12-1 on the road (61.3%), 25-12-3 after a win (67.6%), 11-5 as away underdogs (68.8%) and 16-5-1 (76.2%) in non-conference games. In the two games Campbell’s Cyclones have traveled to Iowa City, they recorded just three points in each outing. I don’t trust the new Iowa State offense just yet and will take the Hawkeyes and under for Week 2.
Kent State (0-1) vs. #7 Oklahoma (1-0) (Oklahoma -34; O/U 72.5)
Oklahoma -34 (-110)
I already hit on teams favored by four or more scores going 8-0 ATS in Week 1. In the Sean Lewis era, Kent State is 0-5 ATS against ranked opponents and 6-13 as road dogs. Kent State ranked outside the top-115 in defensive scoring and yards allowed last year. Oklahoma and Dillon Gabriel looked strong in Brent Venables first head coaching game. This should not be a test in a track meet type game. Back the Sooners.
#9 Baylor (1-0) vs. #21 BYU (1-0) (BYU -3.5; O/U 53.5)
Under 53.5 (-110)
Under Dave Aranda, the under is 6-3 against ranked opponents, 7-3 on the road, and 9-3 when Baylor is an underdog. For BYU, the under is 9-5 (64.3%) against ranked opponents, 24-13 (64.9%) at home, 17-9 (65.4%) as home favorites, and 29-14 (67.4%) after a win. Baylor had a top-10 defense a year ago and returned seven starters. BYU returns 10 starters on the defensive side of the ball. I think this is a close game in a battle of top-25 teams for the Week 2 college football weekend.
What’s your favorite play on the college football Week 2 calendar? Let me know on Twitter! Follow @DrewRoberts_and let’s discuss the slate!
RANKINGS | WEEK 1 | DYNASTY |
