Play vs Us On Underdog! Use Promo-Code: YARDSPER for a 100% deposit match up to $100
Thursday Night Football is an AFC exclusive between the New York Jets and the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars. JAX is coming off an emotional OT victory against the Cowboys, while the NYJ suffered a 20-17 home loss to the Lions.
Following the 2021 NFL Draft, where these franchises picked 1st/2nd overall, one continues to roll with their guy, while the other plays musical chairs with theirs. In this piece, we’re going to size up these rosters, as well as identify recent trends to be aware of. Let’s dive in!
Jacksonville opens as an underdog in this one. Although QB Trevor Lawrence has played his tail off recently, a short week facing a solid Jets defense on the road are all factors that come into play. Once we take a peek at the early injury statuses, that’s where we’ll find some extra variables also impacting the Jags’ chances.
According to PFF Greenline, offensive tackles Cam Robinson, Jawaan Taylor, and guard Brandon Scherff are all out or questionable to play. The Jets have the league’s fourth-highest PFF pass rush grade at 79.3, and star defensive interior Quinnen Williams could return after missing last week’s game with a leg injury.
Lawrence was pressured 20 times last week against Dallas, his most in a game dating back to Week 1 (PFF). Jacksonville won’t even need to think about Sauce Gardner and the Jets’ secondary if they’re getting pounded in the trenches- so it’s critical to stay informed here as the week progresses.
Pass Catchers
Zay Jones is the Jags’ WR1 during this recent stretch. Over the last month, he’s tied for an NFL-leading 4 touchdowns, and is fourth among all receivers with 85.7 PPR points. TE Evan Engram leads his entire position with 68.8 points in that same time (PFF).
Both are “catching up” to teammate Christian Kirk in fantasy production/efficiency, as he’s averaged just over 12 PPG since Week 12.
All three have been able to eat due to competitive, high-scoring games, as well as the play from Trevor Lawrence. The second-year QB has an NFL-best 11 touchdowns over the last month, and he’s wrapped those presents nicely with just 1 interception. Lawrence is also first with 38 end zone pass attempts this season (PFF).
Outside of the injury concerns, Jacksonville’s matchup will still be tough, as the Jets allow only 14.2 fantasy PPG to quarterbacks, 25th according to Pro Football Reference.
Here’s a wild card: As it relates to 4th down decision making/win probability, the Jags have gone for it at a much better clip than the Jets this year. These are the little things that help extend drives, which of course, provides more opportunities for fantasy weapons.
On New York’s side, it’s being reported that QB Zach Wilson is preparing to start. Even if Mike White is out for another week due to injury, WR’s Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore are still the main guys, in that order. But, If teammate Corey Davis ends up playing, it’ll severely affect Elijah Moore’s projections. Moore has one-fewer target (15) than Wilson over the Jets’ last two games without Davis (PFF).
The Jaguars are top-ten in fantasy points allowed to QBs, according to Pro Football Reference. Even with a low game total in the betting markets, NYJ pass catchers could be in line for steady targets in a closely projected matchup.
Matchup: JAX Defense vs Zonovan Knight
The Jaguars have the second-worst PFF team tackling grade at 31.7. Over the last month of the season, RB Zonovan Knight leads all ball carriers with 23 missed tackles forced after a rush. Stringing just a few together could lead to big plays on the ground.
Thanks for reading and best of luck this week!
