Week 14 DFS Stats & Matchups
The Week 14 slate isn’t the prettiest one of the bunch. Some have deemed it to be “gross”, and I’m starting to buy into that. Two games that betting markets are projecting to be fantasy friendly are the Vikings @ Lions and SNF (Dolphins @ Chargers). Let’s break down some of the matchups to expose this weekend!
Not often do you see a team with a losing record favored against one who is 10-2, but that’s the reality for MIN/DET. The Vikings were last underdogs in Week 11 vs the Cowboys, as they went on to get stomped 40-3. According to Pro Football Reference, each defense allows top-five DraftKings PPG to both quarterbacks and wide receivers. I think there are better QB’s to invest in for DFS this week, but the matchup with both is a good sign for their playmakers.
Detroit allows 7.4 air yards/completion and has a 9.2 defensive ADOT- both of which are the league’s highest. Although WR Justin Jefferson had a season-low 5 targets and 14 rec yards when these teams played in Week 3, he’s dominating the air yardage team share at 42.9% (NextGenStats).
The Vikings are pretty brutal against outside receivers. WR Josh Reynolds saw a season-high 10 targets in the last matchup, so you could justify rolling the dice on him or teammate D.J. Chark Jr. as value plays, given the ideal point total.
Over the last month of the season, the Dolphins and Chargers are amongst the league’s top early-down passing offenses. With the projected scoring opportunities on each side, QB’s Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert are solid streamers this week.
Matchup: LAC vs MIA Slot Coverage
The Dolphins have allowed the league’s most targets (122), receptions (90), and yards (926) through the slot.
Since returning from injury in Week 11, WR Keenan Allen leads the NFL with 19 slot targets (PFF). At $6,600 on DK, Allen is a better value than Jaylen Waddle ($7.200) if you’re going to attack this game.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,600 on DK)
The second-year back is a fantasy juggernaut when attaining the majority of the backfield work. According to nfelo, the Patriots target RB’s at a 24% clip, second in the NFL.
If teammate Damien Harris doesn’t play, Rhamondre Stevenson owns a high-floor that you’ve gotta have in lineups. Stevenson is averaging more than 18 fantasy PPG in weeks that Harris doesn’t suit up (PFF). The Arizona Cardinals also allow a league-high 155 yards after the catch per game (Pro Football Reference), and Stevenson is third amongst all RB’s with 431 total YAC.
Another valuable backfield option this week is Panthers RB D’Onta Foreman ($5,400). Carolina faces the Seattle Seahawks, who allow the most DK PPG to running backs at 30.1. According to PFF, Foreman has 20+ carries in two of his last three games. His splits are pretty drastic depending on the game script (much better in close games/when Carolina leads). The betting markets surprisingly have the Seahawks as just 3.5 point favorites, so if D’Onta Foreman is healthy, he’s a dark horse rushing volume candidate.
Offensive EPA/play x Wins
Like to end with a bit heavier analytical stuff. Here we have team offensive EPA/play and wins (farther to the right means better offense).
Jacksonville is roughly 3.5-point dogs against Tennessee. Assuming Trevor Lawrence is good to go, this is an interesting matchup from a betting angle since the Jags have a solid run defense. 81% of the total cash is on Jacksonville with the points (PFF Greenline). I think this game, as well as the Giants (+7.5) against the visiting Eagles, are potential divisional upsets.
Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!
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