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WEEK 13 PROP BETS
Welcome to Britt and I’s Week 13 prop bets series, each week we go head to head with our props and track our past success. Each unit is equal to $5.00’s though this is merely an advisement and we strongly encourage you to bet within your means. If you think you have a gambling problem please click here to get help.
BRITT’S PROPS: 6-5 (+1 UNIT)
JARED GOFF UNDER 239.5 PASSING YARDS (-115 1 – UNIT RETURNS $4.36)
In the past ten games Goff has only gone over this passing total four times. He is currently facing the Minnesota Vikings who are ranked No. 10 in pass DVOA. The Lions are going to be without their second leading receiver in Swift, he accounts for 17.81 touches, 6.6 touches and five receptions. In a divisional game the Lions figures to be in a negative game script but the last three weeks he has only breached 200 yards once. The thorn in the side here is that this being a divisional game leads to unpredictable game events, a few long touchdowns by Reynolds or Raymond could easily disrupt this prop.
MILES SANDERS OVER 67.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.36)
Drew just missed his Sanders prop by one rushing yard, so the smart move to do is to go back to the well. Jordan Howard is trending to not playing, Boston Scott is injured which leaves Kenneth Gainwell and MIles Sanders as the only truly healthy running backs. Last week Sanders was dominating the touches but got banged up before half. The Eagles also got away from their run game script very quickly, something the Eagles shouldn’t need to do against the No. 30 rush DVOA. The thorn in the side here is that Sirianni has a weird usage relationship with Sanders, which could easily work him out of major workload.
JONATHAN TAYLOR ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN TWO TIMES (+210 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $10.50)
Usually betting an anytime touchdown is a very risky proposition, betting two times is something I wouldn’t suggest hardly ever. However, Jonathan Taylor is on a tear, he has scored one or more touchdowns in eight of his last nine games and two or more in four of his last nine.. If you take away his five touchdown game he is averaging 1.1 touchdowns a game, if you add in his five touchdown game he is averaging 1.3 touchdowns. In his last nine games, he is averaging 1.7 touchdowns a game. Houston is a dumpster fire in every way and is ranked No. 25 in rush DVOA. The thorn in the side here is that Taylor gets sat early in the game and the Colts don’t have many red zone appearances.
DREW’S PROPS: 2-9 (-7 UNITS)
LOGAN THOMAS: OVER 40.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)
Logan Thomas returned from a six-game absence to his typical TE1 ways. He saw six targets, third most on the team (17.6 percent target share). The target share Thomas saw in Week 12 is consistent for the target share the Washington Football Team’s tight ends have seen with Taylor Heinicke as quarterback; the Football Team’s tight ends saw seven total targets last week, with six going to Thomas. The Raiders defense allows the 3rd-most targets seen (8.7 per game), 4th-most receptions allowed (6.1 per game) and 4th-most receiving yards allowed (65.7 per game) to opposing tight ends. Thomas’s role as the signature tight end in the offense should propel him to clearing this Week 13 prop bets total.
JOE MIXON: OVER 90.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)
This rushing total is the second highest across Sunday’s slate, but who are we to doubt Joe Mixon on his current run? Since Cincinnati’s Week 10 bye, Mixon has put together a 30 carry, 123-yard game along with a 28 carry 165-yard performance with both games resulting in multiple touchdowns. Mixon has 18 career games with over 20 rushing attempts; he’s topped the century mark in 12 of those games. Teams have challenged the Chargers’ run defense, and for good reason: they allow the most rushing yards per game (121.5) and the 4th highest yards per carry clip (4.6). I’m expecting Mixon’s run to continue against a vulnerable Chargers defense.
KIRK COUSINS: OVER 278.5 PASSING YARDS (-115 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)
Dalvin Cook is out, and when he is inactive, history shows the offense runs through Kirk Cousins. In 10 inactive Cook games, Cousins averages 38.6 pass attempts per game compared to just 33 when Cook is active. Cook has missed the last two games against Detroit. In those Minnesota wins, Cousins threw 40 and 34 attempts. The Lions surrender the most yards per attempt at 8.3, respectively. In his seven career games with Minnesota against Detroit, Cousins is averaging 9.1 YPA. Detroit sees the second fewest attempts per game (30.9). But the last two Minnesota wins over Detroit were under a field goal. This game could be closer than the initial 7.5-point spread indicates. Look for Cousins to air it out against a susceptible Detroit secondary.
COURTLAND SUTTON: UNDER 44.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)
We have a five-game sample size for Courtland Sutton playing alongside Jerry Jeudy, and it’s not promising. Sutton has totaled just eight receptions on 15 targets for 109 receiving yards and zero touchdowns in that span. In the six games Jeudy missed, Sutton totaled 37 receptions on 55 targets for 525 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Kansas City allows the 8th fewest yards per game to opposing receivers (146.1). I’m going to continue to fade Sutton until we see him produce with Jeudy in the lineup.
MAC JONES: UNDER 205.5 PASSING YARDS (-115 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)
Mac Jones is currently the odds-on favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and for good reason. The Patriots are on a six-game winning streak and winners in seven of eight. However, this is the best defense Jones has played all season; the Bills are the lone team to allow under six-yards per pass attempt (5.7). They are also one of two teams to surrender under 200 passing yards per game – the other being the Patriots. We’ve seen a discrepancy in home vs. road splits for the rookie. Jones’ current attempts per game, touchdown and interception rate at Gillette are 34.6, 5.4 percent and 2.1 percent. On the road, Jones is averaging 27.8 attempts per game, a touchdown rate and interception rate of 2.2 percent. Even without Tre’Davious White, I’m banking on the Bills defense to create havoc against Jones in a home divisional game.
MONEYBAG PARLAY: ($5.00 RETURNS $64.64)
JOE MIXON ANYTIME TD SCORER – eight touchdowns in his last five games. Has scored in all but two games this year.
JONATHAN TAYLOR ANYTIME TD SCORER – Rinse. Wash. Repeat.
ELIJAH MOORE UNDER 53.5 RECEIVING YARDS – chemistry is just not there with Zach Wilson. Philadelphia allows just 10.7 receptions and 125.2 receiving yards per game to opposing receivers.
PAT FREIERMUTH: OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS – has at least four receptions in six games since JuJu Smith-Schuster was ruled out for the season. Eric Ebron is on IR; Baltimore has allowed at least four receptions to opposing tight ends in nine of 11 games.
ANTONIO GIBSON: OVER 70.5 RUSHING YARDS – averaging 24 carries per game since the bye. Las Vegas is allowing over 100 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry.
