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Week 13 Dynasty Buys, Sells, & Stash
Whether you’re in the thick of a championship run, in full-blown rebuild mode, or somewhere in between, you need a gameplan for your dynasty roster. I’m here to help you navigate the tricky world of dynasty team building no matter your situation. Every week through the end of the season, I will provide buys and sells for both contenders and rebuild teams plus my stash of the week.
START/SIT ASSIST | TRADE CALCULATOR
Buy For Contender: Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb is the perfect buy for a contender right now. He’s been productive, he’s in a good situation, and he’s at an age where any dynasty manager who is not in contention is likely looking to move him before the end of the season anyway. Chubb is top-5 in running back fantasy points per game through 12 weeks. The snap share discrepancy between he and Kareem Hunt has become more and more in Chubb’s favor in recent weeks.
Now the team is getting a massive quarterback upgrade with the return of Deshaun Watson for Week 13. While that might mean more pass attempts, the study I did in the summer concluded that more passing can actually be a positive for running backs. In short, it makes the entire offense more efficient, creates more scoring opportunities, and more plays. Watson will open up the entire offense and lift up everyone’s fantasy value, Chubb included. He’s already been one of the most efficient running backs across the board while facing one of the highest stacked-front rates in the league. Imagine what he can do when the defense has to be more respectful of the passing game.
Buy For Rebuild: Trey Lance
We loved Trey Lance coming into the season. Unfortunately a monsoon in Week 1 and a fractured ankle in Week 2 crushed his dynasty value. But now we’re 10 weeks removed from the injury and at the point in the season where contenders are looking for that last minute deal to make a championship run. That’s where we swoop in and snag a guy like Lance who is just sitting on that contender’s IR spot. While Jimmy Garoppolo has played well, he hasn’t done anything to make me think the 49ers are going to abandon the quarterback they traded three first round picks to go get. So Lance is going to be the starter in 2023.
What did we love about Lance coming into this season? His big arm and dynamic ability as a runner. Who are the quarterbacks lighting up fantasy football right now? It’s Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Fields. They all have big arms and can kill a defense with their legs. In fact, Justin Fields has basically been what we were hoping to get from Lance. The difference is, Lance will actually have weapons to throw to. Rather than leaning on Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, Equanimeous St. Brown, and so forth, Lance gets Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk. Imagine.
Sell: Deebo Samuel
While Deebo Samuel may be good for the future prospects of Trey Lance, I’m not so sure Lance is great for Deebo. Looking ahead to 2023, Samuel is going to have a quarterback who has very little playing experience and is going to take opportunities out of the offense because he’s going to call his own number 10 times a game. But it’s not just Lance and it’s not just 2023. We’re already seeing Samuel struggle to get enough opportunities. The offense is a run-first unit with a ton of other weapons. And the addition of Christian McCaffrey has almost negated the need to lean on Samuel as a runner. McCaffrey also takes away some of those short receptions that turn into long catch-and-runs. Of course, Samuel is still going to have his weeks, but his weekly floor and ceiling have been shifted with the addition of McCaffrey and I expect they will continue to trend downward when Lance is reinstalled at quarterback in 2023.
Sell: Dameon Pierce
Dameon Pierce has been impressive as a rookie. But we see it almost every year—a day three rookie running back come in and impress in their first season, only to be replaced the very next season. Some recent examples are James Robinson (JAX drafted Travis Etienne), Michael Carter (NYJ drafted Breece Hall), and Elijah Mitchell (SF drafted a RB in round three and then traded for Christian McCaffrey). There’s no debating that Pierce is good—he is. But we said that about all of the running backs I just listed. Draft capital matters to NFL decision makers. It shouldn’t, but it does. There is risk that Pierce either gets replaced or at least forced into a committee situation. If you have a chance to sell Pierce at his market value, I would do it.
Stash of the Week: Khalil Shakir
Khalil Shakir was a favorite sleeper around the time of the NFL Draft. We celebrated when he went to Buffalo even while knowing that he may have to wait his turn behind Isaiah McKenzie and/or Jamison Crowder. That’s exactly what has happened. But there has been enough to be optimistic about a greater role in 2023. He flashed in Week 5 when he caught three of his five targets for 75 yards and a touchdown. If Shakir makes strides in the offseason, he could leapfrog McKenzie for playing time and even eat into Gabriel Davis’s share. We loved Shakir’s versatility coming out of Boise State where he lined up outside and in the slot, handled over 70 rush attempts, and provided value as a returner. It’s hard to imagine a better offense or better quarterback for Shakir if he can force his way into a bigger role in 2023.
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