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Following an exciting slate of Thanksgiving games, the rest of Week 12 is filled with matchups to take advantage of. In this article, we’ll take a look at some of these matchups and provide betting insights to any side wagers you might be considering.
LAC/ARI and LV/SEA are solid matchups to consider, given the implied close games and heavier pass rates over recent weeks..
Cardinals continue to be abysmal against Tight Ends. Wrote about this last week for DFS and George Kittle went off in Mexico City against the division rivals (84 yards & 2 TD). Chargers TE Gerald Everett saw his DK salary jump +700 to $4,400 this week, and that’s not solely due to WR Mike Williams being ruled out. More often than not, you get what you pay for, and that seems to be the case with Everett in Week 12.
RB James Conner had his DK salary skyrocket +900 to $6,600, but he’s still outside this week’s top ten DK RB’s (Fantasy Pros). With weapons Zach Ertz and Rondale Moore out against the Bolts, Conner and newly-elevated WR Hollywood Brown ($5,300) are a nice pair to either compliment Nuke Hopkins, or cheaply substitute into your lineups.
Raiders allow 21.8 DK PPG to Quarterbacks this season, third-highest in the league. WR DK Metcalf saw 9 targets in Seattle’s last game in Germany and scored 0 touchdowns. He’s averaging 1.3 end zone targets per game this season (PFF), and represents a nice option to play alongside QB Geno Smith, RB Kenneth Walker III, and even stack with Raiders’ Davante Adams on your DFS slates. Las Vegas also allows the highest catch percentage in the league to wideouts at 71.2% (Pro Football Reference).
OTHER GAME NOTES:
According to Pro Football Reference, the Ravens’ defense is top-ten in points allowed to WR’s at 38.4 DK PPG. They’re also tied for the most targets allowed per contest at 22.2. Despite all this, they’re still giving up less than a TD/game to the position. WR Christian Kirk isn’t a bad streaming option alongside Etienne, or in a lineup with Lamar/Andrews.
If you haven’t heard by now, the Houston Texans defense is allergic to stopping running backs, allowing an NFL-worst 32.5 DraftKings PPG. The Cleveland Browns, however, allow the second-most points (30.7), and most net TD/game to the position at 1.6. RB Rachaad White ($5,100) is awesome to complement alongside WR Mike Evans, who hasn’t scored dating all the way back to Week 4 against Kansas City (peek your anytime touchdown props).
Going back to the Dolphins’ matchup against Houston- RB Jeff Wilson Jr. is set to dominate that backfield after Raheem Mostert’s injury (currently doubtful to play). Texans’ CB1 Derek Stingley Jr. will not suit up against Miami, so plenty of folks will opt to pay for wideouts Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle. Wilson Jr. is a nice value play this week (DK salary at $5,900).
MNF: The Pittsburgh Steelers allow the most DK points (44.8), targets (22.2), yards (202.5), and TD (1.4) per game to WR’s this season (Pro Football Reference). In their matchup against Cincinnati last week, Bengals WR1 Tee Higgins saw 11 targets and recorded 148 yards (PFF). WR Michael Pittman Jr. owns over a quarter of the Colts’ targets at 25.5%, and hasn’t caught a touchdown since Week 1 against the Houston Texans. He and teammate Parris Campbell are nice options to consider on the MNF slate, as well as with various player props. Campbell had a target per route run just over 11% prior to the dismissal of Frank Reich. Since HC Jeff Saturday took over in Week 10, Campbell’s TPRR has skyrocketed to 27.2% (PFF).
Good luck this week!
