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Week 11 helped paint a clearer picture for the College Football playoffs. The Pac12 took a hit with both Oregon and UCLA suffering a loss. Now, USC is the lone hope for the Pac12 to return to the College Football Playoff since the 2016-2017 season. Meanwhile, people still discount TCU and they continue to prove people wrong. With that said, we only have two weeks left of the regular season. And the Week 12 college football schedule is lackluster to say the least. So we’ll keep the card smaller before we ramp up for rivalry week next week. Here are my favorite plays for Week 12.
Week 11: 4-4 (-.2 units)
YTD: 44-52-2 (-11.7 units)
#4 TCU (10-0) vs. Baylor (6-4) (TCU -2.5; O/U 57)
TCU -2.5 (-110)
I don’t care if this is a square pick. TCU firmly belongs in the College Football Playoff, and I’m tired doubting them. They’ve shown they can win ugly, like last week’s 17-10 win over Texas. Or a shootout like they did against Oklahoma State, winning 43-40. Baylor is just 1-2 in home conference games this year. TCU continues to roll on their quest for a College Football Playoff berth. Horned Frogs to start the Week 12 college football weekend.
UCONN (6-5) vs. Army (3-6) (Army -10; O/U 43.5)
UCONN +10 (-115)
Jim Mora has a pitch for coach of the year. UCONN became bowl eligible last week with an upset win over Liberty. To put the six wins in perspective: UCONN won just seven games from 2017 thru 2021. Now they’re a double-digit underdog against a 3-6 Army team? Yes, the triple option will be a tough task. But UCONN has handled most obstacles thrown there way. There’s no reason to doubt them now; grab them at +10 before the number moves.
Virginia Tech (2-8) vs. Liberty (8-2) (Liberty -10; O/U 46.5)
Liberty -10 (-110)
Liberty is looking for a bounce back spot against Virginia Tech, losers of their last seven. To make matters worse, they are just 2-5 ATS in that seven-game losing streak and 1-4 ATS on the road this season. Virginia Tech is a bottom-10 team nationally in turnover margin (-8). This is picking on a bad team in Virginia Tech who is just hoping to avoid double-digit losses in their first year with Brent Pry. Flames clear the number this week.
Western Kentucky (7-4) vs. Auburn (4-6) (Auburn -5.5; O/U 54)
Western Kentucky +5.5 (-115)
Western Kentucky ML (+175)
Auburn finds themselves in a massive letdown spot. They win their first game with interim coach Carnell “Cadillac” Williams and have the Iron Bowl at Alabama next week. So who better to catch the Tigers sleeping than Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road this season and gave Indiana a scare in September. Both of their road losses came by a field goal. Auburn had a month-long stretch where they allowed 39 or more points; that streak only halted because Texas A&M has a bottom-25 offense. Auburn is bottom-five in turnover margin (-11); Western Kentucky is third nationally (+14). Western Kentucky has the firepower to put up points and stay within the number. I’m sprinkling on the money-line as well.
#25 Cincinnati (8-2) vs. Temple (3-7) (Cincinnati -17; O/U 50.5)
Temple +17 (-110)
Cincinnati has struggled on the road this season, going 0-3-1 ATS and has a prime look ahead spot hosting Tulane next Friday. Temple is a perfect 5-0 ATS at home. Cincinnati and Temple are two of the three lowest scoring offenses in the American Conference in conference play. Temple has played well at home, going 3-2 with the losses coming by two and 11 points. Temple keeps this one within the number against Cincinnati.
#7 USC (9-1) vs. #16 UCLA (8-2) (USC -2; O/U 76.5)
UCLA ML (+108)
This matchup lost it’s luster after UCLA blew any outside chance of a College Football Playoff berth with a loss to Arizona a week ago. They weren’t the only Pac12 team that collapsed down the stretch: Oregon lost as a two score favorite against Washington. Now the last hope for the Pac12 lies with Lincoln Riley and the USC Trojans. And truthfully, I believe this is the week the Pac12 officially self-implodes.
UCLA has been underdogs at home twice this season ahead of Saturday’s showdown; they won those outright against Washington and Utah. USC has lucked out in the sense they didn’t have to play Oregon or Washington in conference play. Oregon State and Utah round out the top-half of the conference; USC’s lone loss was to Utah and they won closely against Oregon State. A USC win would keep the postseason interesting across the country, but I don’t think we get that lucky. Bruins pull the slight upset.
Colorado (1-9) vs. #17 Washington (8-2) (Washington -30; O/U 62.5)
Washington -30.5 (-110)
Over 62.5 (-110)
Teams favored by over four touchdowns are now 25-9-3 ATS. Colorado hasn’t covered a game on the road this season and are just 2-8 ATS on the season. Washington has been dominant at home, led by the nation’s leading passer Michael Penix Jr. Colorado is a bottom-25 team defensively against the pass.
The Huskies are averaging 41.5 points per game at home this year. The over is 4-1-1 in Washington home games, and 5-0 in Colorado away games. Colorado doesn’t keep this close. Huskies and the over to close out the Week 12 college football weekend.
Have a favorite play I should add? Let me know on Twitter! Follow @DrewRoberts_ for more football content!
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