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Week 10 was full of excitement across the college football landscape. Georgia proved their dominance, while perennial juggernauts Alabama and Clemson saw their College Football Playoff chances vanish. As a result, TCU propelled themselves as a top-4 team in the eyes of the College Football Playoff committee, while the Pac12 has a glimmer of hope to return after a six year absence. Only three weeks left in the regular season, but the excitement is ramping up. Here are my Week 11 college football picks.
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Week 10: 4-8 (-3.8 units)
YTD: 40-48-2 (-11.5 units)
#7 LSU (7-2) vs. Arkansas (5-4) (LSU -3.5; O/U 61.5)
Arkansas +3.5 (-110)
Arkansas ML (+145)
In my personal opinion, this line screams to take Sam Pittman and the Arkansas Razorbacks. LSU is coming off a monster win over Alabama, setting themselves up to win the SEC West. Securing one win at either Arkansas or Texas A&M will lock up the West for LSU. Yet, they are only 3.5 point favorites? And the line has come down over the last few days? This SEC West matchup will be a close on in Fayetteville, and I’m taking the points with Arkansas.
North Texas (6-4) vs. UAB (4-5) (UAB -6; O/U 58)
North Texas +6 (-110)
Forget that North Texas has been stellar ATS in Conference USA since 2021. A win over UAB secures North Texas’s berth in the Conference USA Championship game, where they could avenge their sole conference loss to UTSA. Austin Aune has thrown multiple touchdowns in nine of ten games this year for his campaign as conference player of the year. This will be his toughest conference foe to date; UAB has allowed just 11 passing touchdowns this year, the best mark in C-USA. UAB has covered just one of their six conference games this season. I think that streak continues in this Week 11 college football matchup.
Florida Atlantic (4-5) vs. Florida International (4-5) (F. Atlantic -16; O/U 54.5)
Over 54.5 (-110)
Taking the FAU under is my guilty pleasure; they’re hitting 73.3% of the time under Willie Taggart (22-8). Coming off a bye, the under is 6-0, falling short on average by 19.5 points. But two of the eight times the over hit came against Florida International. The over was set at 52 and 42, respectively; FAU hit 58 and 38 in those games. If this matchup is against any other team, I’m taking the under. But in this matchup, give me the over.
#25 Washington (7-2) vs. #6 Oregon (8-1) (Oregon -13; O/U 72.5)
Oregon -13 (-110)
Oregon has no letdown room as they look to break the Pac12 streak of missing the College Football Playoff. Bo Nix has lit up as a he is an outside contender for the Heisman. Washington started out hot, but struggled as they played the top of the Pac12 division. Oregon has the firepower to blow the doors off Washington. Quack, quack.
Kansas (6-3) vs. Texas Tech (4-5) (Texas Tech -3.5; O/U 64)
Over 64 (-110)
As much as I love FAU unders, I love Kansas overs when on the road. They are 9-1 with Lance Leipold. Kansas has scored over 40 in three of four road contests this season. Texas Tech has cleared 30 in four of five this season at home. This has the potential to get in the 80s in this Big 12 matchup. Enjoy the fireworks in Lubbock.
#1 Georgia (9-0) vs. Mississippi State (6-3) (Georgia -16.5; O/U 53.5)
Georgia -16.5 (-110)
Georgia proved their dominance last week, holding the top offense in the country Tennessee to 13 points. Now they head to Mississippi State, where Georgia is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road contests. Mississippi State is led by Will Rogers, who has powered Mississippi State to the 8th best passing mark in the country. The only issue: Georgia has surrendered just five touchdowns through the air in nine games. Mississippi State’s rushing offense? 129th of 131 schools, scoring 10 touchdowns over nine games. Georgia’s offense is 11th best nationally; how will Mississippi State hang if they can’t get it done through the air? Georgia marches in this Week 11 college football route.
#4 TCU (9-0) vs. #18 Texas (6-3) (Texas -7.5; O/U 65)
Texas -7.5 (-110)
This pains me – I love the TCU offense. The trio of Max Duggan, Kendre Miller, and Quentin Johnston is one of the best across college football. But if there is a spot where the clock strikes midnight on Cinderella, this is it. Johnston is banged up for TCU and is a game-time decision for this game. Quinn Ewers has played well as a redshirt freshman with the exception of the Oklahoma State game. They’ve covered in four of six games with Ewers as the starter. I’m with the Longhorns to burst the bubble of TCU.
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