Week 1 Fantasy Football Matchups: Starts, Sits, and Sleepers
Week 1 Fantasy Football Matchups: Starts, Sits, and Sleepers
Football is back! Which means we’re setting fantasy lineups for Week 1. To help us do that, I’ve created seven categories to find the best plays for your Week 1 matchups. They’re: Boom/Bust, Best Matchup, Must Sit, Sleeper, Top Rookie, Week Winner, and The Hail Mary play of the week.
We’ll identify a player for each category to help you make those critical lineup decisions. Let’s start with the Boom/Bust Player of Week 1…
Boom/Bust: Kyle Pitts vs TB
I know, I know. But I promise I’m not some deranged Kyle Pitts truther. I’ve actually never been a Kyle Pitts guy—and I’m kinda proud of that. It’s just that this matchup and this opportunity are ripe for a boom week. Pitts should be the Falcons’ No. 2 target in the passing game after WR2 Darnell Mooney missed almost the whole summer with his injury.
This game could be our first “Fantasy Points Party” of the 2025 season. We’ve got two loaded offenses and questionable defenses. In the dome, in Atlanta, these two teams put on a show both times they played in 2024. The Falcons won both, but the first game was a 36-30 OT thriller, and the other was another high-scoring 31-26 showdown.
Kyle Pitts delivered his two best games of 2024 against the Bucs, with 7 catches for 88 yards in one game and 4 catches for 91 yards and 2 TDs in the other. Even with a new QB, Pitts has massive boom potential in Week 1. This is why you drafted him—get him in your lineup.
Other Boom/Bust considerations: Marvin Harrison Jr @ NO, Matthew Golden vs DET.
Best Matchup: David Njoku vs CIN
We got the QB we wanted, and the matchup is about as good as any for David Njoku to smash in Week 1. The Bengals defense projects to be a unit we can take advantage of once again. They were particularly bad against tight ends in 2024, and Njoku was one of the many who feasted. Against Cincinnati last year, Njoku caught 10 passes for 76 yards and a TD in one game, then followed up with 8 catches for 66 yards in the other.
Joe Flacco starting at QB for the Browns is best-case scenario for Njoku. Flacco and Njoku thrived together in 2023, with Njoku averaging 17.5 fantasy points per game over Flacco’s final five starts. Flacco throws a ton, the Bengals defense still stinks, and the Browns will likely be in comeback mode. Fire up David Njoku with confidence—I’m ranking him as my TE4 this week ahead of TJ Hockenson, Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and others.
Other strong matchups: Chuba Hubbard vs JAC, Mike Evans @ ATL, Tetairoa McMillan vs JAC, Kyle Pitts vs TB, Drake London vs TB.
Must Sit: D’Andre Swift vs MIN
D’Andre Swift is a tough start in Week 1. The Bears are operating under a brand new offense with playcaller Ben Johnson, and things looked shaky all summer. Add in uncertainty about Swift’s role alongside Roschon Johnson and Kyle Monangai, and it’s already risky. The matchup makes it worse: Minnesota allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards to RBs in 2024 and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game. Swift failed to top 10 fantasy points in either matchup against the Vikings last season.
I can’t trust Swift against a defense that allowed the fourth fewest points overall in 2024. I’d rather start Breece Hall, David Montgomery, Austin Ekeler, TreVeyon Henderson, Omarion Hampton, Aaron Jones, Isiah Pacheco, or Tony Pollard.
Other must-sits: Tua Tagovailoa @ IND, Nick Chubb @ LAR, Jonnu Smith @ NYJ.
Sleeper: Jalen Coker @ JAC
The Adam Thielen trade opened the door for Jalen Coker to step into a significant role for the Panthers. As an undrafted rookie last year, Coker posted 43.5 yards per game—eighth most by an undrafted rookie WR since 2000. He flashed with WR17, WR12, and WR28 finishes down the stretch while running routes on more than 88% of plays. He averaged 1.83 yards per route and accounted for 23% of Carolina’s receiving yards in games he played.
According to Reception Perception, Coker posted a 70.5% success rate vs man and 78.4% vs zone. He’s versatile, able to line up inside or out, and now gets a great matchup against the Jaguars—who were the fifth-easiest defense for WRs in 2024. This game could be a sneaky shootout, and I believe in Bryce Young’s progression. With Thielen gone and question marks around Xavier Legette, Coker could get off to a hot start.
Other sleepers: Jerome Ford vs CIN, Josh Palmer vs BAL, Christian Kirk @ LAR, Cedric Tillman vs CIN, Brenton Strange vs CAR, Kyle Pitts vs TB, Bryce Young vs JAC, Michael Penix vs TB.
Top Rookie: Tetairoa McMillan vs JAC
I’ve been talking up Tetairoa McMillan all offseason, and Week 1 is the time to start him. He steps in as the immediate alpha for the Panthers with little competition for targets and an ascending Bryce Young throwing to him. At 6’4” and 219 pounds, he has prototypical X-receiver size and will be a nightmare in the red zone.
Like Coker, McMillan gets a soft Week 1 matchup against Jacksonville’s defense, which was one of the easiest against WRs last year. With his talent and role, I’m starting him over Marvin Harrison Jr, DJ Moore, George Pickens, Jameson Williams, and Terry McLaurin.
Other rookie considerations: Emeka Egbuka, Omarion Hampton, Ashton Jeanty.
Week Winner: Chase Brown vs CLE
Chase Brown was my ultimate must-draft this year, and he’s ready to smash Week 1. From Weeks 9-17 last season, he was a workhorse, averaging 23.7 touches, 116.3 total yards, and more than 20 fantasy points per game. He ranked top-10 in evaded tackles, added 10 breakaway runs, and averaged nearly 5 receptions per game during that span.
Now he’s locked into a 70%+ opportunity share in one of the league’s best offenses. Cincinnati will move the ball, score points, and Brown will be heavily involved both as a runner and receiver. Against a weak Browns team, Brown could easily be the top-scoring RB of the week. He’s the definition of a Week Winner.
Other Week Winner considerations: James Conner vs NO, Kenneth Walker vs SF.
Hail Mary: Ray-Ray McCloud vs TB
With Darnell Mooney sidelined, Ray-Ray McCloud is stepping into a bigger role for Atlanta in Week 1. He quietly had 62 catches for 686 yards last year, finishing as a top-35 WR four different times. One of those came against the Bucs, where he caught 6 passes for 66 yards. With Michael Penix now under center, McCloud has a QB upgrade as well—Penix targeted him 7 times in Week 18.
This Bucs-Falcons game is shaping up to be a shootout, just like last year when the teams combined for 61.5 points per game. Tampa gave up the 10th-most fantasy points to WRs last year, and their attention will be on stopping Drake London and Bijan Robinson. That leaves room for McCloud to sneak into relevance. If you’re desperate for a flex in a deeper league, McCloud is a strong Hail Mary play.
Other desperation plays: Dont’e Thornton vs NE, Woody Marks @ LAR, Theo Johnson @ WAS, Dyami Brown vs CAR.
Final Thoughts
Week 1 is always unpredictable, but these categories help narrow down the best plays. From boom/bust upside with Kyle Pitts, to safe matchup-based starts like David Njoku, to hidden gems like Jalen Coker and Ray-Ray McCloud, you’ve got options to gain an edge in your Week 1 fantasy football matchups. Make smart decisions, trust the process, and get off to a 1-0 start this season.
