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I said last week that Week 0 was not going to be pretty, but at least we had football back. Week 1 is the true kick off as we have five-straight days of college football. This is the week we have matchups like Georgia vs Oregon, Arkansas vs Cincinnati, and the headliner, Ohio State vs. Notre Dame. This, THIS is the true kickoff of college football. Now, let’s dig into some of my favorite Week 1 college football bets.
Week 0: 2-1 (+.9 Units)
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Penn State vs Purdue (Penn State -3.5; O/U 54.5)*
Purdue +3.5 (-110)
Purdue ML (+145)
*Game played on Thursday, September 1st
There is a lot of hype around this Purdue team: they finished 9-4 in 2021 with a Music City Bowl victory over home-state Tennessee. They return nine starters on defense and six on offense, including quarterback Aidan O’Connell. Penn State also returns their quarterback, Sean Clifford, along with six offensive and defensive starters. Both teams received votes in the preseason AP Poll.
With Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm, Purdue is 19-8 ATS as an underdog and 8-4 ATS as a home underdog. Penn State was very one dimensional in 2021, ranking 26th in passing offense but 118th in rushing. Purdue’s strength on defense was against the pass, ranking 5th in the Big Ten and 33rd nationally (208.7 YPG); Purdue returns four of their five secondary starters. Penn State will need to fix the offensive struggles that plagued the 2021 season; from October on, Penn State averaged just 22.1 PPG over nine games. I’m taking the Boilermakers for a potential Week 1 upset as they cover against Penn State.
#25 BYU vs. South Florida (BYU -11.5; O/U 58)
Over 58 (-110)
Both teams return familiar pieces in 2022; BYU returns eight offensive starters and 10 defensive, while South Florida returns 10 offensive and eight defensive. There are high hopes for this BYU team, after they went 10-3 the year after losing Zach Wilson as the 2nd overall pick. BYU ranked 7th last year in yards per play (6.9) while bringing back their quarterback (Jaren Hall) and top two receivers. South Florida ranked 117th in defensive scoring last year, allowing 34.7 PPG.
Since Jeff Scott took over South Florida in 2020, the over is 6-0 when playing at home as an underdog, 5-1 against ranked teams, and 8-2 at home. I think this turns into a track meet South Florida can’t hang in and we see fireworks in Tampa for Week 1.
Tulsa vs. Wyoming (0-1) (Tulsa -6.5; O/U 44)
Tulsa -6.5 (-115)
I picked Illinois to cover against Wyoming in Week 0. From the time I hit ‘submit for review’ on Thursday night to the article being published on Friday morning, the line moved in Illinois’s favor from -11 to -13.5. It didn’t matter, as the Illini routed the Cowboys 38-6. I mentioned Wyoming’s lackluster rush defense a season ago, finishing 98th against the run at 180.6 YPG; Illinois’s Chase Brown totaled 151 rushing yards on 19 carries for two scores Saturday. As a team, Illinois carried the rock 41 times for 260 yards (6.3 YPC) and three touchdowns.
Tulsa’s rushing attack was the strength of their offense, averaging 192 yards per game, the 3rd best mark in the AAC and 34th nationally. While they lost 1,000 yard rusher Shamari Brooks, they return Anthony Watkins, who averaged 7.4 yards a carry last year. Since Philip Montgomery took over head coaching duties at Tulsa in 2015, Tulsa is 30-11 ATS in road games (73%) and 7-3 as a road favorite (70%). If Saturday was any indication of Wyoming’s season, it will be a long one. Take the Golden Hurricanes in this Week 1 college football road spot.
Arizona vs. San Diego State (San Diego State -6; O/U 47.5)
San Diego State -6 (-110)
Under 47.5 (-110)
Former Michigan coach Brady Hoke has done a phenomenal job at San Diego State the last four years. A season ago, the Aztecs were one of the top defenses nationally, ranking 17th in defensive scoring (19.8 PPG), 14th in turnover margin (+10) and 12th in yardage allowed (324.4 YPG). They return seven starters on the defensive side of the ball and add transfers from Hawaii and Washington.
Meanwhile, Arizona was arguably the worst Power Five school in 2021. They finished the year 1-11 with a lone 10-3 win over Cal. The offense brings back five starters, but ranked 124th in scoring (17.2 PPG) and 101st in total yards (355.9 YPG). The Wildcats also managed a FBS-worst (-17) turnover margin. They also managed a FBS-worst in field position, averaging a start on their own 24-yard line.
Since Hoke took over the program in 2018, the under is 20-12 when San Diego State is the favorite (67%), 17-8 at home (68%) and 14-5 as a home favorite (74%). This is a rematch from a season ago, where San Diego State won 38-14 in Tucson. I’m looking for the Aztecs to pick on the Wildcats again in Week 1, this time on their turf.
#4 Clemson vs. Georgia Tech (Clemson -22; O/U 49)*
Clemson -22 (-110)
*Game played on Monday, September 5th
2021 was a tough stretch for Clemson; while they surrendered 2nd fewest points per game (14.8), the offense never clicked, finishing below average at 26.3 PPG (82nd). Luckily, they return seven starters on offense and eight on defense. DJ Uiagalelei struggled as a freshman, throwing nine touchdowns to 10 interceptions. If he struggles, Dabo Sweeney has the option to turn to true freshman Cade Klubnik as a replacement.
For Georgia Tech, they could end up as one of the bottom Power Five schools. Returning just four starters from a season ago where they finished 3-9 including a loss to Northern Illinois in their opener, and getting outscored 100-0 over their last two games. Their top rusher last season, Jahmyr Gibbs, bolted for Alabama this offseason. Georgia Tech is 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven against the Clemson Tigers. I’m expecting Clemson to fix their offensive woes from a season ago under new offensive coordinator Brandon Streeter, and route Georgia Tech to close out the Week 1 college football slate.
What’s your favorite play for Week 1? Let me know on Twitter @DrewRoberts_ and why I should tail your play!
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