Veteran Running Backs In DANGER of Losing Their Jobs To Rookies In 2025
Running Backs Who May Not Survive The 2025 NFL Draft
The NFL running back landscape is about to change in such a big way. With how good the incoming rookie class is at the position—both in terms of top-end talent and depth—there are a TON of veteran backs who are in imminent danger of either gaining competition or losing their jobs altogether. Of course we have the obvious guys, but there are going to be a couple of veterans whose role gets shaken up by the NFL draft completely unexpectedly. We’re going to touch on both sides of that fence today—but let’s start with a guy who seems destined to lose his bell-cow status…
Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
Despite signing a four-year, $36M extension before the 2024 season, Rhamondre Stevenson is in great danger of gaining major competition in that backfield through the 2025 draft. He was not good in 2024: He had the lowest rushing EPA among 44 qualified RBs. He was repeatedly benched for fumble issues. And he looked completely unexplosive. Stevenson was 30th in explosive play rating (PlayerProfiler) and had just seven runs of 15+ yards. He was outside the top-50 RBs in yards per touch as well.
The Patriots brought in a whole new regime and are intent on building a quality offense around second-year QB Drake Maye. That could (and likely will) include bolstering the backfield.
The Patriots have six picks in the top-150 (including two thirds). At pick 38, they could consider a guy like: Omarion Hampton (if he’s still there), Quinshon Judkins, or an explosive playmaker like TreVeyon Henderson, for example. At 69 & 77, they could have Kaleb Johnson (maybe), RJ Harvey, Dylan Sampson, Devin Neal, or Bhayshul Tuten, to name a few.
Chase Brown, Bengals
Chase Brown had a nice breakout season in 2024, especially in the second half of the season. But he’s in great danger of getting some competition added to that backfield. Brown is slightly undersized and I don’t know if the Bengals see him as a full-blown bell-cow type of RB. They experimented with Zack Moss last year—they could try to recreate that role with a day 2/day 3 rookie.
It would likely be a bigger, between the tackles runner like Kaleb Johnson or Quinshon Judkins (at pick 49) or in round 3, 4, or 5: Cam Skattebo, Ollie Gordon, Devin Neal, etc.
There’s even been talk that they could consider Ashton Jeanty (or even Omarion Hampton) at pick 17. They did, after all, meet with Jeanty at the NFL Combine. That would completely wipe out Chase Brown (and not just be touch competition/shared backfield)
I love Chase Brown—I have since he was coming out of Illinois in 2023–but, he is 100% going to lose touches in 2025 (it’s just a matter of how much).
James Cook, Bills
There’s a chance that the Bills like James Cook as much as fantasy gamers do—but there’s also a chance that they don’t. From 2023 to 2024, James Cook saw decreases in:
- Carries/G (13.9 to 13.7)
- Targets/G (3.2 to 2.3)
- Receptions/G (2.6 to 2.0)
- RecYards/G (26.2 to 16.9)
But fantasy football players think he’s one of the best RBs in football—why? It’s all about the touchdowns. His touchdowns per game rate rose from 0.35 in 2023 to 1.11 in 2024. He was last year’s Raheem Mostert. Cook had a 7% TD rate in 2024, up from 2.1% & 2.7% in his first two seasons. He scored two rushing touchdowns in 2023. That shot all the way up to 19 in 2024, despite the aforementioned drop in opportunities per game.
Cook scored 21 total touchdowns in 2024 and was still ONLY the RB10 in fantasy points per game. For reference, Mostert scored 21 in 2023 and was RB4 in in fantasy points per game.
Then we get to the passing game. Cook is an overrated receiver. He’s not even the third down back on his team—that’s been Ty Johnson. Cook caught just 38 balls in 2024 which was 27th among RBs (there are only 32 teams!)
And don’t forget, Cook’s contract is up after 2025 and he’s already asking to be paid among the top RBs in the league. He’s reportedly looking for $15M/yr. So could Buffalo get ahead of the game and draft a RB in 2025?
At pick 30, they could land Omarion Hampton, maybe? Hampton is a bigger back and better than James Cook in every way. He would be a major headache for James Cook and would likely have the starting job by mid season.
The Bills also have two second round picks (56 & 62). That could be the range for a Kaleb Johnson or Quinshon Judkins. Even a guy like RJ Harvey could be a consideration late second or third round.
Some RB that no one is expecting is going to get jolted by the NFL Draft—that may just be James Cook.
Travis Etienne, Jaguars
The Jaguars are one of these teams that could surprise everyone by drafting a RB on day two. They have pick 36 at the top of the second round, but they also have two third round picks (70 & 88).
Now, of course the Jaguars have plenty of other needs across the roster, but they just brought in a brand new regime, with a former OC as their new head coach. And Liam Coen just had a ton of success with a two-headed backfield that included a rookie from last year’s class. Could they try to replicate that in Jacksonville by drafting a guy like RJ Harvey, Brashard Smith or Devin Neal in the third round? Or even go bigger with a guy like Omarion Hampton, Quinshon Judkins or TreVeyon Henderson in round two?
There are even day three guys who could come in and be a factor in that backfield as soon as the 2025 season: DJ Giddens, Ollie Gordon, Woody Marks, to name a few. And then there’s Travis Etienne’s brother, Trevor as well. Whoever it is, Travis Etienne is in great danger of getting competition in that backfield.
Etienne’s contract is up after 2025 and he wasn’t exactly the most efficient back in football last season.
The Jaguars have 10 picks to use—there’s a very good chance at least one of those is used on RB.
Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs
In addition to adding Elijah Mitchell in free agency, the Chiefs could look to the draft for a running upgrade. Pacheco was not the same after his broken leg last season. He was outplayed by a dusty Kareem Hunt and the offense suffered because of it. I expect the Chiefs will address this and make it a priority (and no, signing Elijah Mitchell does not count as a solution).
They could be in the market for a RB at pick 31 (Omarion Hampton? TreVeyon Henderson?) or at 63 or with either of their two third round picks. Maybe it’s not for a bell-cow like Hampton/Kaleb Johnson/Quinshon Judkins—maybe it’s an explosive receiving back like Brashard Smith in the third round. Brashard Smith would be a ton of fun in the Chiefs offense. He’s versatile, he’s explosive, and he’s an exceptional receiving back and that’s a role they still need to fill after losing Samaje Perine this offseason—he was their pass-catching option.
Either way, the Chiefs are an obvious candidate to add an explosive playmaker to their backfield. And that could mean the end of Isiah Pacheco as a fantasy starter.
Tyrone Tracy, Giants
Tyrone Tracy looked the part as a rookie. I personally was thrilled after drafting him a ton in the late rounds of dynasty rookie drafts last spring. He averaged 4.5 yards per attempt and totaled more than 1,000 yards after only spending about half the season as the starter. That’s pretty good for a guy who just recently started playing the running back position—and doing it in such an inept offense. But he is far from safe.
For one, the coaches and front office are desperate to save their jobs—and I’m not sure they are ready to put their trust in Tracy to help them do that. But then we add in the Saquon Barkley element to this. We saw on offseason Hard Knocks last year how devastated John Mara was to lose Saquon. Not only did they lose Saquon, they lost him to the rival Eagles and had to watch him go on a run for 2,000 yards, set the record for most yards in a season (including playoffs), become an MVP candidate, and help Philadelphia win a Super Bowl. You know John Mara was deeply affected by that. And you know he is insisting the Giants get an impactful RB one way or another this offseason in an effort to make up for losing Saquon.
That means, despite what Tyrone Tracy showed us last season, and despite what we may think of him, he is in great danger of losing his role to the next bright/shiny RB.
The Giants sit at pick 34 atop the second round. That’s the sweet spot for a handful of these top RBs. That could be Omarion Hampton (if he doesn’t go 1st round), TreVeyon Henderson (he could be that explosive playmaker they want), Quinshon Judkins, or Kaleb Johnson. They could even do it at pick 65 at the beginning of round three.
There’s also a scenario where they trade back from the 1.03 and end up taking Ashton Jeanty. How crazy would that be?
Brian Robinson, Commanders
Brian Robinson had a nice 2024 season but I’m not sure “nice” is what the Commanders are going to settle for these days. Washington has been the most aggressive team in acquiring talent this offseason. They clearly want to take advantage of the Jayden Daniels rookie contract window (and I commend them for doing so). But sticking with the combination of Brian Robinson Jr & Austin Ekeler at RB just doesn’t feel like it fits the team’s gameplan right now.
So I expect with either pick 29 or pick 61 (or maybe their fourth), the Commanders are going to try to make a splash at the RB position. Pick 29 could get them Omarion Hampton, TreVeyon Henderson, or Quinshon Judkins. Kaleb Johnson or a number of other guys could be there at 61. Even the fourth round will have potential NFL starters available at RB given the depth of this class.
We can also factor in that Brian Robinson is a free agent after the 2025 season. So his days in Washington are likely numbered one way or another and his tenure as the team’s No. 1 RB could end even sooner.
D’Andre Swift, Bears
The Bears are clearly trying to recreate what Ben Johnson had in Detroit. They’ve started by attacking the offensive line with trades and free agent signings. The next logical step is upgrading the running back position. Johnson not only had one star RB in Detroit, but he had two.
The Bears are one of the favorites to land Ashton Jeanty in the first round of the draft. They’re currently sitting at pick 10, which is about the area we can expect Jeanty to come off the board. And if it’s not Jeanty in the first round, the Bears have two second round picks and a third. They are going to draft a RB It could be Omarion Hampton, TreVeyon Henderson (he’s gotten some Jahmyr Gibbs comps), Quinshon Judkins, Kaleb Johnson (he’s David Montgomery-like), or a number of other options.
D’Andre Swift struggled with efficiency last season, and remember, Ben Johnson was on that Lions coaching staff that gave up on and shipped off D’Andre Swift in a trade to the Eagles before he even made it through his rookie contract. So he is absolutely getting replaced in this backfield, it’s just a matter of who that guy is going to be.
Other starters who are in danger:
Jaylen Warren, Steelers – he’s currently penciled in as the starter after Najee Harris left for LA, but the Steelers are absolutely in the market for running back help. Omarion Hampton at pick 21 has Steelers written all over it. The only thing that could save Warren from being completely usurped is that the Steelers gave up their second round pick in the DK Metcalf trade. That could mean Warren is in a timeshare with a Day 3 guy rather than the team bringing in a bell-cow—but we’ll see.
Joe Mixon, Bengals – The Texans appear to be entering a light rebuild. That could mean a young RB enters the picture via the draft. The Texans have their first, second, and two thirds to possibly spend on the position. I don’t think Mixon would lose his job completely, but some added competition could create a split backfield rather than the bell-cow role he was in a year ago.
Top Handcuff RBs who could lose their jobs/get competition:
Jaylen Wright – disappointed in year 1; Virginia Tech’s Bhayshul Tuten has “Miami RB” written all over him
Tank Bigsby – we already talked about the possibility of the Jaguars adding a RB; what if that’s to compete with Bigsby and not Etienne?
Tyjae Spears
MarShawn Lloyd – it was a lost rookie season for Lloyd – Packers may look to go back to the RB well to add a more reliable option behind Josh Jacobs
Kendre Miller – the fantasy community has loved Kendre Miller; but he can’t stay healthy and coaches have seemed to not like the guy; he’s going to he replaced
Trey Benson – underwhelmed as a rookie; Cardinals could try again
RANKINGS | DYNASTY | Rookies
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