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Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons
10.45 fantasy points: OVER
The Falcons may be terrible but at least they have Kyle Pitts. He had the greatest season of any rookie tight end we’ve seen last year. There’s almost zero target competition. Easy to see him reach 10.5 fantasy points.
Trey Lance, QB, 49ers
206.5 pass yards: UNDER
I can’t imagine the 49ers let Lance uncork it in this one. They won’t need to anyway. They’ll play it safe against an awful Bears team.
Cole Kmet, TE, Bears
35.5 receiving yards: OVER
The Bears may be bad but they need to pass it to someone. It’s Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and a bunch of nobodies. Kmet has the athleticism to get down the field for chunk plays. He’ll easily leave 35 receiving yards in the rearview mirror.
Mitch Trubisky, QB, Steelers
19.5 rush yards: OVER
Mitch Trubisky’s best trait as a quarterback is his rushing ability. He averaged more than 20 rushing yards per game in his time as the Bears starter. Pittsburgh will be playing from behind so plenty of drop backs will open up opportunities for scrambles.
Jared Goff, QB, Lions
16.45 fantasy points: OVER
This game is sneaky intriguing. It could turn into a shootout as we have to improved offenses with a desire to increase their pass rates. Detroit has one of the best offensive lines in the league (they’re finally healthy!) and the addition of DJ Chark and returns of TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift will only help matters. If the Lions are playing from behind, it’s not hard to see Goff reaching 20 fantasy points.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Lions
31.5 receiving yards: OVER
D’Andre Swift would greatly benefit from this game shooting out and/or the Lions working from behind. We know he’s going to get his work in the passing game. He topped 32 receiving yards in seven-straight games to begin 2021.
Michael Carter, RB, Jets
12.5 receiving yards: OVER
We all love Breece Hall and expect him to take over this backfield eventually. However, I expect the Jets to implement something closer to a 50/50 split early in the season with Carter getting most of the passing game work. In a game that projects the Jets to be playing from behind, Carter should have no problem cresting 12.5 receiving yards.
Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings
16.5 rush attempts: UNDER
The Vikings have made it no secret that they plan on utilizing a pass-heavy approach under the new regime. That doesn’t mean Dalvin Cook won’t still get his work, but in a game that could wind up shooting out, we’ll likely get more out of Cook as a pass-catcher in this one.
James Conner, RB, Cardinals
4.5 receptions: UNDER
Everyone seems to be projecting James Conner to absorb the Chase Edmonds role on top of his own. Sure, he was utilized quite heavily as a receiver when Edmonds missed time in 2021, but they’ve had a full offseason to work out a plan for the backfield and Eno Benjamin has reportedly emerged as a player to watch in the old Edmonds gig. Conner will revert to his grinder role.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders
49.5 rush yards: UNDER
The warning shots have been going off on Josh Jacobs all summer. There’s very little reason to trust he’s going to get a bunch of carries.
Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys
18.5 receiving yards: OVER
Tony Pollard should benefit from a shootout game environment. At least enough to top a measly 18.5 receiving yards.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
260.5 passing yards: UNDER
Aaron Rodgers was held below 260 passing yards in about half of his games in 2021. Now he’s without Davante Adams and the team did basically nothing to replace him.
Najee Harris, RB, Steelers
91.5 rush + receiving yards: UNDER
Najee Harris has been an easy fade all draft season. This Steelers offense is a concern. He’s running behind a pretty bad o-line and Pittsburgh will likely be playing from behind. It’s hard to see a path to this kind of yardage in this one.
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