Trey Sermon: Fantasy Outlook For 2021 & Beyond
Trey Sermon is the first Kyle Shanahan-drafted running back since the infamous Joe Williams pick back in 2017. Hopefully this one turns out better. Sermon was a top-100 national recruit before playing three seasons at Oklahoma. In 2018, he led the team with 13 rushing touchdowns with 164 carries and 1,128 total yards. Sermon battled injuries and fell behind on the depth chart in 2019, starting just four of nine games while losing touches to Kennedy Brooks and Rhamondre Stevenson. Sermon carried just 54 times for 385 yards and four touchdowns with 71 receiving yards and a score on eight receptions.
He transferred to Ohio State for the 2020 season where he shared a backfield with Master Teague and rushed 116 times for 870 yards and four touchdowns and added 12 receptions for 95 yards in eight games. Sermon dominated when he was needed the most with 331 rushing yards in the Big Ten Championship Game and 193 in the semifinals against Clemson. A shoulder injury knocked him out of the national title game after just one carry. Sermon isn’t the fastest, but he is plenty athletic with a 79th-percentile Agility Score and 81st-percentile Burst Score (PlayerProfiler). He showed that off with 16 carries of 15 yards or more in 2020 (PFF). He’s a decent receiver, though he never saw more than 20 targets or 16 receptions in a season and both of those came back in 2017.
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The Niners targeted the Ohio State runner with a trade up into the third round to get him. That’s significant. The team has shown time and time again that they can be highly productive running the football with less than top-level talents in their backfield. We’ve seen weeks where guys like Jeff Wilson, Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and even JaMychal Hasty have been very fantasy relevant. To me, the move to use day two capital while also trading up to do it, is telling us the Niners really like this player and have a plan to use him.
Fantasy Outlook
He joins a crowded backfield of the aforementioned mediocre talents of Mostert, Wilson, Wayne Gallman, and Hasty (also drafted Elijah Mitchell later). Sermon’s one-cut and go running style fits the San Francisco offense well. He’ll have an opportunity to carve out a role as the team’s grinder back with upside to be the high-volume, early-down and short-yardage guy. That role will have even more potential for fantasy points if the team turns the keys to the offense over to their electric rookie quarterback. The team also added guard Aaron Banks in the second round and Center Alex Mack in free agency, which will only help the running game further.
The best way to approach this backfield in fantasy drafts, though, is to target the cheapest back as Shanahan tends to take a hot-hand approach and we really have no idea how that will play out. If Sermon can seize a significant role in this offense, he has high-end RB2 upside in year one. In dynasty, we have to consider him in the late first round of rookie drafts starting at about pick 10 in one quarterback leagues.
